【作者】 张明；

【导师】 韩松臣；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 近些年来,随着民航运输业的迅猛发展和不同地区民用航空业发展的不平衡,造成了空域资源需求矛盾日益严重。在整个空域中,终端空域是以大型机场为中心的中低空域,空域资源需求尤其突出,如何有效规划配置终端空域和管制资源是空域规划领域专家和学者亟待解决的一个紧迫问题。空域扇区规划理论作为空域规划理论的重要组成,是解决空域和管制资源有效配置的一种重要理论和方法。鉴于以往终端空域扇区规划方法多为依据各国空域规划实践经验基础上定性规划,缺乏科学性和合理性,本文在空域容量和空域安全性等空域规划指标约束下,借鉴公路交通规划理论、人类工效学理论和仿真技术,建立终端空域扇区规划相关理论方法和规划评价方法。通过本文的研究,形成较为完善的符合我国国情的空中交通预测和扇区规划及评估的理论和方法。交通流预测是获取合理空域规划方案的基础。在终端空域交通的长期预测中,以往空中交通预测大都集中在对其因果关系回归模型和时间序列模型分析上。但由于交通系统的复杂性和随机性,需要考虑较多的交通流的影响因素,空中交通流量本身的季节性变化和统计误差等,都直接影响预测的精度。同时,国内外文献多集中于研究某一空域范围的总体流量的满意预测值,而对于空域结构规划工作而言,空中交通流分布预测对空中交通流量优化和空域规划方案的确定尤为重要。针对上述问题,通过借鉴公路交通的分布预测,本文提出基于交通流智能预测模型的终端空域OD分布交通方法。在终端空域交通的短期预测中,针对空中交通流量受到短期复杂随机因素的干扰,雷达样本预测数据会出现局部数据异样的问题,本文提出基于神经网络集成的终端空域短期预测,从预测的数据着手,通过建立智能的数据聚类和自适应的神经网络集成预测模型,在清除部分异样数据的基础上,获取准确的交通流预测结果。针对以往的扇区规划模型中以随机产生节点来回避现有终端空域的固定航路节点,并且缺乏对于集中于终端空域扇区边界冲突点的科学规划,本文提出了基于安全管制员工作负荷的扇区规划模型。以导航台、航线交叉点和空域边界上的航路点为节点,使用Voronoi多边形将空域划分为有限单元;在Voronoi图的基础上,计算各有限单元的管制员工作负荷;并在两个扇区划分的基本原则的约束下,应用模拟退火算法组合这些有限单元,获得优化的扇区边界。进离场航路分离管制是较为成熟和运行效率较高的终端空域管制方式。该方法按照进场和离场功能实现了扇区划分和管制,不仅减少了各个席位管制协调,而且降低了管制员工作负荷,提高了管制工作的效率,优化了管制工作的程序。但是,就研究现状来看,目前对该方法的研究多采用定性规划的方法,缺乏科学的量化模型的支持。此外,由于管制方式不同,原有的扇区优化模型不适用于进离场分离管制的扇区规划。本文基于空域扇区规划的基本原则提出了进离场分离管制条件下的功能性扇区规划模型,可有效实施终端空域扇区的功能性定量规划。动态扇区规划是为保证管制员安全管制,在飞行流量变化条件下对扇区结构进行的动态调整方法。该规划方法具有提高空域资源和管制资源利用效率的优势。但是,以往规划多采用依赖专家经验的模糊逻辑等方法,使得规划存在不确定性。因此,本研究将以相关管制规则为指导,在空域容量约束下,通过对空域运行的历史数据挖掘,获取动态扇区规划的规则,并建立日飞行流量变化条件下的动态扇区规划模型。目前的空域规划方案评估多采用专家定性方法获取规划结果。可拓综合评价模型是一种定性和定量相结合的综合评价模型。它的最大优点在于能够较好地将专家定性的思维过程转化为定量的数学描述,从而提高评估的准确性。但是,在这种可拓综合评价模型中,某些评价指标数据常常超出节域,使评价模型的使用存在局限。因此,本研究在考虑专家定性评价的基础上,借鉴灰色关联分析的分辨系数设定,建立改进的可拓安全管制评价模型。文中的部分理论和方法已在上海终端管制中心以及国家空管委相关研究中得以运用,取得了良好的应用效果。该研究有助于促进空域规划理论研究的发展和完善,并将有助于我国民航管理部门合理分配和使用终端空域资源和空中交通管制资源。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,with the rapid development of civil air transportation service, a gap has gradually grown up between the different areas in China. At the same time, the contradiction of the airspace resource demand is getting more obvious.In whole airspace, the terminal airspace is the medium- and low-airspace centered on the large airport.Therefore, making an effective plan for air traffic controlling resources and achieving a rational airspace resource allocation for the terminal airspace has increasingly become an urgent task for the researchers and the experts. As one integral to the airspace plan theory, the theory of airspace sectors’plan is an important theory and an useful method for the rational air traffic controlling resource allocation.It is found that the method of terminal airspace sectors plan in the past is mostly based on the other countries’practical experience by qualitative research techniques, and leads to shortage of science and rationality. This paper intensively applies the results of the latest research on the transportation field, and based on this, by using the highway traffic planning theory, ergonomic theory and simulation technology as a source of reference, under the restraint of some airspace planning indexes,such as airspace capacity and airspace safety, advances the theory and the evaluation method relevant to the three-dimensional dynamic sectors’plans for the terminal airspace and the method of airspace planning assessment.This paper tries to build a relatively complete theoretical method of air traffic forecast, plans and evaluations of the sectors, better according with Chinese actual situation.Forecast for traffic flow is the basis of obtaining the reasonable airspace planning programs.In the past, the long-term forecast researches for the terminal airspace focus more on the analysis of a causality regression model and the analysis of time series model.However, the complexity, the randomness of the traffic system and the other factors influencing the traffic flow, such as the seasonal variations in air traffic flow and the statistical error will directly affect the precision of prediction.The research in domestic and international references focuses more on the satisfactory predicted value of the whole flow in some airspace sectors.But for the airspace structural planning, especially for the optimizing air traffic flow and for the establishing a reasonable airspace planning programs, the forecast of distribution in air traffic flow is more important. Therefore, in this paper, the four-stage method in highway traffic theory and double gravity model are introduced to determine the distribution of air traffic flow, and the GM-GRNN forecast model is specially adopted to establish the air traffic flow forecasting models in light of the random and periodic characteristic of the history data of air traffic flow. In the short-term forecast researches for the terminal airspace, air traffic flow is apt to be disturbed by many short-term, complicated and stochastic factors and the local radar prediction sample data tends to be deviant.Therefore, this paper tries to solve the problem from the prediction data by using cluster analysis of sample data and establishing the adaptive combination of forecasting neural networks model to cancel the deviant sample data.Voronoi diagram is founded using computational geometry based on original distribution of the way-point and the controller workload is accounted on each Voronoi polygon. And then in accordance with the rule about balance of controller workload, simulated annealing algorithm (SA) is used to achieve the optimization of combination of the Voronoi polygons, and the new resolution satisfies restriction of two rules for airspace partition. So, the boundaries of the aggregates of the Voronoi polygons are the optimal borderlines of sectors. Example result of actual airspace design validates the rationality of the sector optimization method.The sample of separated routes between approach and departure is generally viewed a more mature and efficient control approach in the terminal airspace.This method reduces both the amount of coordination work between the ATC Positions and the controller’s workload, improves the controller’s working efficiency and optimizes the program of the controller’s work.At the same time, the present researches mostly use the qualitative method, lack of scientific quantitative measurement. Based on the fundamental principle of the airspace sector planning,the paper provides a functional sector planning model under separated routes between approach and departure,and the functional quantitative planning for terminal airspace sector would be expected to effectively applied.The dynamic airspace sector plan is a dynamic adjustment method which is based on the variation in air traffic flow and is to realize the security control of air traffic.This method has unique advantages in improving the efficiency of the airspace resource and the air traffic controlling resource.In the past, the fuzzy logic model relying on the expert experiences has constantly been used and tends to cause the planning to become ambiguous.Therefore, guided by the air traffic controlling rules and restricted by the airspace capacity, this research tries to get the rules and the models of the dynamic airspace sector plan on condition of the daily variation in air traffic flow.The present researches on the airspace planning assessment mostly use the experts qualitative method.The extension assessment model is a comprehensive evaluating model, which successfully combines the qualitative method with the quantitative one.The greatest advantage of the model is that it can help us translate the experts’qualitative thought process into the quantitative description so as to improve the accuracy of the evaluation.However, the extension assessment model also has some defects that some evaluation index data often exceeds the partial unit.Therefore, based on the experts’qualitative method, resolution ratio of grey correlation analysis is introduced to establish the improved extension assessment model in air traffic security control field.The theory and approach in this paper has already applied in some important project, such as the project of Shanghai Terminal Control Center and the State Administrative Committee on Air Traffic,and has obtained the good results.The research will contribute to the development and improvement of airspace planning in theory and will help the civil aviation authorities allocate and use the resources of the terminal airspace in practice.更多还原