论冷战后国内武装冲突和平解决的影响因素

【作者】 胡文秀；

【导师】 李少军；

【作者基本信息】 中国社会科学院研究生院 ， 国际关系， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 不同行为体之间的冲突与战争始终是人类社会面临的最大威胁。国际关系学自诞生以来,解决冲突与建设和平就是研究的核心议题。冷战之后,世界大战的危险基本消除,国内武装冲突成为威胁地区安全和世界安全的突出问题,因而寻求国内冲突的解决之道成为了国际关系学者关注的焦点。冲突解决的方式包括武力解决与和平解决两种,和平解决更有助于持久和平的实现,因此,研究冲突的和平解决更有意义。在研究国内冲突和平解决过程中,明确影响冲突解决的因素,才能够做到对症下药。本文所研究的问题就是冷战之后影响国内武装冲突和平解决的因素。对于影响因素,本文从内部因素和外部因素两个方面作了分析,不仅关注影响因素的选取,更重要的是分析不同因素的作用机制。为了奠定一个基本的知识前提,本文首先对“国内武装冲突”和“冲突和平解决”的概念做了分析,并分析了冲突和平解决的可能性。同时还选取了冷战后终止的35场重大国内武装冲突作为样本,来验证本文后面提出的观点。本文在总结已有研究的基础之上,归纳出了6个影响冲突和平解决的国内因素,即冲突伤亡人数、政府军队的规模、冲突的得失利害关系、冲突国政权的性质、冲突持续的时间和协议的签署。本文对前面两个因素进行了定性分析,后面四个因素做了定量分析。对于冲突伤亡人数这个变量,本文认为其与冲突和平解决之间存在着正相关性。对于政府军队规模这个变量,本文对学者现有的研究做了修正,不是政府军队规模,而是政府武装与反政府武装军事力量对比与冲突和平解决之间存在着负相关性。对于冲突的得失利害关系,本文从冲突类型和冲突性质两个方面做了分析,发现领土冲突比政权冲突更难以和平解决,包含认同因素的冲突比不包含的冲突更难以和平解决。对于冲突国政权的性质,学者的研究关注的多是政体与冲突和平解决之间的关系,本文增加了一个新的方面,即冲突国政权的发展状况;分析发现,二者与冲突和平解决之间并不存在相关性。对于冲突持续的时间与冲突和平解决之间的关系,本文赞成现有的研究,二者之间存在正相关性。对于协议的签署,学者现有的研究多关注于协议条款与冲突和平解决之间的关系。本文增加了一个新方面,即冲突派别,分析发现冲突派别的数量和素质与冲突和平解决之间都存在相关性。关于协议条款,本文认为包含有军事解决条款和权力分享条款的协议容易得到签署并能够持久履行。军事解决条款是指包含有军队一体化或者交战方解除武装内容的条款,权力分享条款在领土冲突是指包含有领土自治条款,在政权冲突中是指包含有进行大选或者选举改革条款。影响冲突解决的外部因素主要是指第三方介入。分析发现,在冲突演进过程中,强制性介入可以有效地改变冲突方的行为,促成和谈。而在强制性方式中,对政府实施的经济制裁和(或)武器禁运更容易导致介入的成功。在冲突和平进程中,第三方的监督和保证可以对协议的签署和执行发挥重要的影响。对于影响冲突和平解决因素分析的研究已有不少,但是学者的研究多止步于此。本文在此基础上做了进一步的分析,认为冲突解决是一个“系统效应”的过程,即不同因素对冲突解决结果产生着“纵向”影响;同时,不同因素之间也产生“横向”的影响,表现为一个变量的变化会影响到其它变量,一个变量的效用可能取决于存在着的其它变量。尽管本文对影响冲突和平解决的因素及其作用机制做了分析,但是冲突和平解决是一个复杂的过程,还存在着诸多的不确定性,一方面,研究难以穷尽所有的影响因素,另一方面即便是存在着相同的影响因素,冲突结果也可能不尽相同。因此,本文并不是,而且事实上也不能够,归纳出一个可以和平解决冲突的模式。本文能做的就是通过理论解释和经验事实,分析清楚影响冲突和平解决的大概率因素的作用机制,以便在未来冲突解决中可以有所借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 Conflicts and wars among different actors pose the biggest threat to international relations in human society. How to settle conflicts and build peace thus remains a core issue for researchers in international relations studies ever since it became a discipline. While a Third War is unlikely to take place, internal armed conflicts take the center stage, which endanger the security of the region as well as that of the world as a whole. Against that backdrop, researchers have focused on ways to settle such conflicts. There are two kinds of means to make armed conflicts resolved, that is, military victory and peaceful settlement. And peaceful settlement contributes to durable peace, which is worth doing more research. To do that, factors that have impact on the ultimate settlement of conflicts have to be determined. The author attempts to do just that in this dissertation.For the elaboration of the issue, the author discusses not only the influencing factors (both internal and external) but also how the factors work. To facilitate research, the concepts of internal armed conflicts and peaceful settlement of conflicts are explained in the first place, then the author proposes the possibility of the peaceful settlement of conflicts. Meanwhile 35 major conflicts terminated after the Cold War are selected to test and verify the author’s viewpoint.Based on the earlier studies, the author points out six internal factors for the peaceful settlement of conflicts --- casualties, size of government troops, the stakes of the conflict, nature of regime of the countries involved, duration of the conflict, and the portfolio for signed agreements.For the first two variables, qualitative analysis is made and for the remaining four factors, quantitative analysis is applied. The author believes that casualties has positive correlation with peaceful settlement. The variable of size of government troops are expanded to size of government troops vs. size of rebel troops, which, in the author’s opinion, is negatively correlated to peaceful settlement. In terms of the stakes of the conflict, the author classifies them based on the types and natures of conflicts. It is found that conflicts for territory are more difficult to settle peacefully than conflicts for state, while conflicts with identity factors are more difficult than the otherwise. Nature of the countries in conflicts has been studied from the perspective of the relationship between regime and peaceful settlement of conflicts. The author, however, takes a step further to include the development situation of the state and finds out no correlation with peaceful settlement. The author supports the proposition that duration of conflicts is positively correlated to peaceful settlement. Based on the current focus on the relationship between terms of the agreement with peaceful settlement as to the portfolio for the signed agreements, the dissertation adds a new element --- reble in conflicts, the size and quality of which is found to have correlation with peaceful settlement. Agreements with terms regarding military settlement and power sharing are easier to be signed and stay effective for long. Military settlement refers to the integration of the army or disarmament of the parties in conflicts. Power sharing means territorial autonomy in conflicts for territory and general election and electoral reform in conflicts for state.Intervention of the third party is considered as an external factor for the peaceful settlement of conflicts. It is found that coercive intervention such as government-enforced economic sanction and/or arms embargo can effectively deter conflicts and facilitate peace talks. It is thus concluded that the oversight and guarantee of the third party is crucial for the signing and implementation of peace agreements.Much research has been done in the influencing factors for the peaceful settlement of conflicts, but the author believes that settlement of conflicts is a process of system effects, which involves the vertical impact of the factors on the settlement as well as the horizontal impact among factors.Still, there are many uncertainties in the peaceful settlement of conflicts. On the one hand, research in this regard may not be inclusive; on the other, same factors can lead to different results. With that in mind, the author does not venture to propose one model for peaceful settlement of conflicts; instead the author intends to analyze the major influencing factors for the peaceful settlement of conflicts both in theory and in practice so as to be of some help for the settlement of future conflicts.更多还原