【作者】 马洪；

【导师】 史其信；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 土木工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 城市急速扩张,城市化进程加快所带来的交通拥堵问题已经成为制约城市经济社会发展的严峻问题之一,轨道交通方式以其可持续发展的优势被多数国家作为解决大、中城市交通问题的最佳策略。我国城市轨道交通规划建设如火如荼,相关理论、应用研究需求旺盛。枢纽是轨道交通系统中的关键性环节,是不同运输方式交通网络的交汇点,是客流集散、换乘的场所。它承担着衔接各种交通方式、保证居民出行顺利中转换乘等重要功能,对所在区域的客运交通运输网络的高效运转具有重要的作用。据此,本文研究内容主要包括以下四个方面:本文首先讨论了对于研究对象——“换乘效率”的定义,然后分析讨论影响换乘效率的因素,并通过经典的多元线性回归和模拟乘客行为过程的神经网络方法对轨道交通枢纽换乘效率的影响机理进行定量的研究,建立并标定了换乘效率影响机理的神经网络模型。基于对枢纽换乘效率的深入分析,本文建立了枢纽内乘客换乘行为的离散仿真模型,细微刻画枢纽内乘客换乘过程中与各类设施产生的互动关系,并通过对仿真结果的微观、宏观分析,实现对枢纽换乘效率和枢纽设施服务水平的评估,并作为轨道交通网络效率研究的基础。接着,本文在枢纽离散仿真模型的基础上构建了轨道交通网络客流动态分析模型,模型反映乘客在考虑枢纽动态换乘效率的前提下进行轨道交通线路选择的行为,从而评价了枢纽动态换乘效率对轨道交通网络客流的整体影响,体现了交通节点对出行路径选择的巨大作用,定量给出了枢纽的交通组织特点对整体出行时间的改变。最后,应用枢纽离散仿真模型,定量评价了枢纽设施硬件改造和软件优化对枢纽换乘效率和对枢纽设施服务水平的优化效果,为枢纽设施改造提供了决策参考,避免改造投资的盲目性和主观性;应用网络动态分析模型,定量评价了枢纽换乘效率提高带来的网络出行效率的优化效果,为轨道交通出行方式吸引力的提升提供技术支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 With rapid expansion and urbanization, transportation problems is becoming more and more serious in social and economical development of Large and medium cities. In the advantages of its sustainable development, rail transport is recognized as the best strategy for urban transport problems in most contries. In China plenty of rails transport planning and construction projects starts in recent years, and related theory and applied research are eagerly demanded.Transportation terminals are the key points in rail transport system. Passengers transfer to different travel mode and different rail lines in railway terminals. Transportation terminals bear the convergence of different modes of transportation to ensure the smooth transfer of Trip transfer and other important features of the region’s passenger transport network. Accordingly, this paper mainly includes the following four aspects:At first, this paper discusses the definition of“transfer efficiency”, and then analyzes the factors that affect transfer efficiency. Through multiple linear regression and neural network method, the impact mechanism of transfer efficiency is quantitatively studied. A neural network model for transfer mechanism analysis is established and calibrated.Based on mechanism analysis, this paper establishes a discrete simulation model for rail passenger behavior analysis. This model describes the process of interaction between passengers and various types of facilities in railway terminals. And through micro-simulation results, macro-analysis, this model can evaluate service level of facilities in railway terminals.Then this paper constructes dynamic simulation model of Passenger flow in rail transport network. The model reflects route choice behavior of rail passengers considering terminal transfer efficiency. Terminal transfer efficiency on passenger flow in rail network is estimated by the model.Finally, application samples are brought up for quantitative evaluation of efficiency of hardware improvement and software optimization in railway terminals. The quantitative evaluation can provide decision-making reference for terminal transformation, and avoid investment blindness and subjectivity. Application of network dynamic analysis model brings quantitative evaluation of network tranvel efficiency results, which provide technical support for rail travel mode attractiveness upgrade.更多还原