【作者】 马春野；

【导师】 田也壮；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 企业管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 中国旅游产业经过改革开放后多年的高速发展,已基本走完了发育期与成长期,政府主导型旅游产业发展模式在这一过程中起到了积极促进作用。持续的高速增长使中国旅游产业仅用了短短的30年时间就追上了西方发达国家用了200年,甚至更长的时间才达到的产业规模,这无疑是巨大的成就。但随着旅游产业外部环境的日趋复杂化,以及产业内部由于持续的高速增长积累的问题不断增多,中国旅游产业出现了高速增长与竞争力不强同时存在的矛盾,这说明其规模足够大,但发展质量不够好。这是由于政府主导型旅游产业发展模式在发挥积极作用的同时所产生的负面效应所致,如不进行模式转换,这一矛盾是无法自行化解的。本文基于演化经济学、自组织理论、协同学理论、耗散结构理论等复杂性理论和产业经济学等相关理论,以演化的视角,结合动力机制原理,对产业系统自组织特性及自组织演化动力机制的逻辑框架进行了研究,并在此基础上构建出产业系统自组织演化的协同动力机制模型。该模型运行的主要原理为:在产业系统开放的大前提下,由控制参量的熵减机制提供适当的产业演化环境,通过竞争机制使系统趋于非平衡态,通过协同机制使子系统状态参量产生非线性藕合效应,系统因此产生巨涨落并产生宏观序参量,最终通过序参量之役使机制的支配作用,推动产业系统的自组织演化。在研究的过程中,依据产业系统自组织演化协同动力机制模型对政府主导型中国旅游产业系统演化动力机制进行了深入分析,得出了“政府主导型调节方式是中国旅游产业系统现阶段演化的序参量”的结论。研究结果表明,现阶段的中国旅游产业系统开放程度不高、熵减机制作用有限、系统处于近平衡态,非线性协同效应不明显,主要靠政府的外力推动,自组织演化程度不高。政府主导型调节方式这个序参量已经很难继续主宰新阶段的中国旅游产业系统演化,序参量本身面临突变性跃升压力。研究结果进一步表明,在旅游产业的发育、成长及特殊扰动时期,政府主导型调节方式起积极作用,而当产业向成熟期转变时,需要一种能够适应新阶段内外部环境的调节方式取而代之。本研究认为,在中国旅游产业系统由市场发育期向成熟期转变阶段,需要一种能够尊重产业系统自组织演化规律,充分发挥环境的调节作用,诱致旅游产业系统在协同动力机制作用下,以自组织方式演化的旅游产业发展模式来取代现有的政府主导型发展模式。我们称这种模式为环境诱致型旅游产业发展模式,其核心内涵在于由环境诱致型调节方式取代政府主导型调节方式成为主宰中国旅游产业系统新阶段自组织演化的序参量。在实证研究中,根据“旅游产业发展的调节方式——旅游产业状态参量——产业绩效”这个旅游产业发展模式演变的逻辑思路,对于旅游产业发展模式演变模型进行了分析验证,验证了“环境诱致型调节方式可以促进中国旅游产业系统发展绩效”的假设。在进一步的案例研究中,选取哈尔滨市冰雪旅游产业和日本札幌冰雪旅游产业正反两个方面的例证作为研究对象,通过对其演变过程的研究,说明中国旅游产业整体发展模式演变的必要性及演变的方式。依据产业系统自组织演化协同动力机制模型,对哈尔滨市冰雪旅游产业发展模式和日本札幌冰雪旅游产业发展模式分别进行深入分析,探究由政府主导型发展模式转向环境诱致型发展模式演变的内在规律。构建了旅游产业发展模式分析模型,在此基础上对中国旅游产业由政府主导型发展模式向环境诱致型发展模式演变的路径进行了分析,并从发展模式转换角度,给出了由政府主导型发展模式向环境诱致型发展模式演变的政策建议,希望以此促进中国旅游产业向有序或更高有序方向发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Following continuous and high-speed development of China after innovation and opening, Chinese tourism already passed through its phases of development and growth, the government-leading evolutive pattern of tourism play an important part in the process. In thirty years, Chinese tourism caught up with the industry size, which was reached by western developed countries in two hundred even more years, this is certainly a great achievement. But, Chinese tourism came forth contradiction of high-speed increase and weak competition power, following complexer external environment of tourism and more accumulating problems of continuous increase, it explains that quantity is great, yet quality is bad. The contradiction was caused by the side-effect of government-leading evolutive pattern of tourism, if we don’t transform evolutive pattern of tourism, the contradiction can’t be solved by itself.Based on industrial economics and complexity theories of evolving economics, self-organized theory, cooperating theory, dissipated structure theory and so on, according to evolutive visual angle, combining dynamic mechanism elements, this paper researchs into logistic frames of self-organized characteristic and evolutive dynamic mechanism on industrial system, constructs the cooperating and dynamic mechanism model of self-organized evolution on industrial system. Main elements of this model are: under the premise of opening industrial system, the entropy decreasing mechanism of controlled parameter provides proper evolutive environment of industry, the competitive mechanism causes unbalance of system, the coopetating mechanism leads to non-linear coupling effect of state parameter in subsystem, so the system comes into being great increase and decrease, and generates macroscopical order parameter, finally the dominant effect of controlling mechanism on order parameter impels self-organized evolution of industrial system.In the process of investigation, according as the cooperating and dynamic mechnism model of self-organized evolution on industrial system,the research analyzes carefully the government-leading evolutive dynamic mechnism of Chinese tourism system, draws a conclusion:“at present, government-leading adjusted mode is the evolutive order parameter of Chinese tourism system”. Results of research indicate, presently the opening degree of Chinese tourism system is low, the action of entropy decreasing mechanism is limited, the system is about balanceable, the non-linear cooperating effect isn’t distinct, the degree of self-organized evolution is low, the tourism mostly depends on impelling power of government. Government-leading adjusted mode, for the order parameter, it is difficult to dominate continuously the evolution of Chinese tourism system in future, the order parameter is faced with mutative pressures.Results of research indicate furthermore, the government-leading adjusted mode can play an active part in the course of development, growth and special disorder of tourism, however, in the course of maturation of industry, we require a kind of new adjusted mode which adapts to internal and external environments in the new stages. The research considers, during the period of transformation from growth to maturation of Chinese tourism system, we require a kind of new evolutive pattern of tourism, it will replace the existing government-leading evolutive pattern, it can exert adequately adjusting function of environment, respect the self-organized evolutive rules of industrial system, induce self-organized evolution of tourism system under the action of cooperating and dynamic mechanism. We call it“environment-leading evolutive pattern of tourism”, its core is: the environment-leading adjusted mode replaces government-leading adjusted mode, turns into the self-organized evolutive order parameter of Chinese tourism system.In the positive research, according as correlative data of Harbin tourism development and structure equation analysis, the investigation analyzes dynamic mechnisms of government-leading and environment-leading evolutions on Chinese tourism system, moreover validates the hypothesis“environment-leading adjusted mode is the future evolutive order parameter of Chinese tourism system”.In the farther case investigation, this paper selects ice-snow tourism in Harbin which is acted as research object, explains the necessity and method of Chinese tourism evolutive pattern by means of the research of evolutive process. In addition, according to the cooperating and dynamic mechnism model of self-organized evolution on industrial system, the investigation analysizes thoroughly the evolutive pattern of ice-snow tourism in Harbin, explores the evolutive rules of transformation from government-leading pattern to environment-leading pattern. Finally, based on the constructed analytical model of evolutive pattern on tourism, the research analysizes the evolutive path of Chinese tourism transformation from government-leading pattern to environment-leading pattern, according to the visual angle of evolutive pattern transformation, brings forward policy advice of transformation on evolutive pattern, and expects that they can promote more orderly development of Chinese tourism.更多还原