【作者】 崔建勋；

【导师】 安实；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 随着社会经济快速发展和城市现代化水平不断提高,城市(特别是大城市)不仅人口数量和密度大幅度增加,出现建筑、生产、财富的集中,与此同时,城市也作为灾害的巨大承载体而存在着。城市的规模越大、现代化水平越高,其潜在的灾害事件种类越多,非常规突发事件发生的频率越高,危害后果也越惊人。为有效应对非常规突发事件所带来的严重后果,实施大规模区域疏散越来越多地成为城市及区域应对非常规突发事件的有效途径。非常规突发事件的突发性往往要求在较短的时间内将受灾区域内的居民安全、有序的疏散到避难场所,最大限度地降低疏散总体出行时间、减少人员伤亡与财产损失。由于非常规突发事件明显的复杂性特征和潜在的次生衍生危害,以及受灾人群疏散行为的随机性与复杂性,使得区域大规模疏散问题成为应急管理研究的重点和难点。本文首先从国内外道路交通应急区域疏散研究现状分析入手,系统考察了疏散交通管理在灾害管理中的功能和角色,提出了区域疏散交通管理集成建模框架;其次,针对道路交通应急区域疏散交通流的时变、随机特性,开展了基于元胞传输模型的疏散交通流基础建模研究,并提出了适用于大规模路网疏散的改进元胞传输模型,形成了元胞-连接桥疏散路网模型构造的一般性方法;再次,依据元胞传输理论,构建了能够预测区域疏散交通时空分布的基础疏散动态交通配流模型,并采用逆行车道设置、分阶段疏散、交叉口冲突消除等集成管理策略,对基础交通配流模型进行修正,从而形成了集成的疏散交通管理模型;最后,针对长春市中心区局部路网进行了疏散交通管理实证分析,并结合分析结果,给出了长春市中心区规划年疏散交通管理的策略建议。本文立足道路交通,利用优化理论、元胞传输理论和系统科学的成果,研究了道路交通应急区域疏散交通管理理论,不仅可以弥补应急管理理论研究的不足,而且对提高道路交通管理部门的应急响应能力、危机处理能力和改善城市整体防灾减灾能力具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid economic development and continuously improving urban modernization, there is not only a significant increase in population size and density in cities (especially big cities), but also the concentration of construction, production and wealth. At the same time, cities also exist as a great carrier of disaster. The larger the city and the higher the level of modernization, there will be more potential types of disaster events, higher occurrence frequency of unexpected events and more alarming endanger consequences.To effectively deal with the serious consequences caused by unconventional emergencies, the implementation of large-scale evacuations becomes more and more an effective way to response to emergencies in urban and regional areas. Sudden emergencies often require evacuating residents in the affected region safely and orderly to shelters in a relatively short period of time, and to minimize the total evacuation duration, reduce casualties and property losses. As the obvious characteristics of complexity in the nature of sudden emergency and potential hazards of secondary derivatives, as well as evacuation of the affected population acts of randomness and complexity, making a large-scale evacuation of the regional issue has become the key and difficult problem of emergency management research.First of all, this paper gives a comprehensive literature review in surface transportation research field, systematically investigates the function and role of the evacuation traffic management in disaster management. An integrated regional evacuation traffic management modeling framework is presented; next, in view of the high dynamics, randomness of evacuation traffic flow, this paper conduct the analysis of basic modeling on evacuation traffic flow based on Cell Transmission Theory (CTM). Also, the classic CTM is revised to adopt the demand of large-scale evacuation modeling and solving. A formal algorithm of cell-connector evacuation road network construction is presented; next, based on CTM and R-CTM, basic evacuation traffic dynamic assignment models are presented to predict the pattern of evacuation flow in space-time dimension. Contra-flow lane, staged evacuation scheduling and elimination of intersection conflicts are imported to extend the basic traffic assignment models to form an integrated model of the evacuation traffic management; finally, an empirical analysis of evacuation traffic management in the local road network in Changchun city area is conducted. Based on the research results, the strategy proposals of evacuation traffic management in given planning year are presented.From the road transportation view, this paper adopts the optimization theory, CTM theory and system science to deeply study the problem of surface transportation regional evacuation traffic management. The research results not only can compensate for deficiencies in emergency management theory, but also to improve surface traffic management department emergency response capability, crisis management capacity and improve the overall urban disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, so this research has important theoretical significance and practical value.更多还原