【作者】 夏雨；

【导师】 赵涛；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 天然气作为一种清洁能源受到人们的青睐,加快压缩天然气(CNG)汽车工程项目的发展是急需研究的课题。本文研究了CNG汽车工程项目的全寿命周期管理过程,主要包括项目规划管理、项目实施管理和项目后评价管理三个阶段,探索了CNG汽车工程项目各个阶段中的管理方法和相关研究模型。在CNG汽车工程项目规划与实施管理中,本文建立了CNG汽车保有量预测模型和CNG加气站选址模型,并从全寿命周期现金流的角度对项目进度管理进行了研究。在CNG汽车工程项目后评价中,建立了CNG汽车工程项目后评价指标体系和基于模糊物元法的后评价模型。最后,本文从项目规划管理、实施管理和后评价三个方面对海南CNG汽车工程项目进行了分析,并提出了改进意见。本文主要创新点:(1)将项目全寿命周期中影响现金流的建设阶段和运营阶段结合起来研究加气站项目进度问题,构建了项目进度问题的模糊相关机会规划模型。针对这个模型设计了基于猴群算法的模糊模拟求解方法,并对海南加气站项目进度进行了数值模拟。(2)根据加气站选址的特点,选取运输费用、CNG汽车数量、加气站间距等主要影响因素作为决策变量,采用退火算法进行选址优化,并以对海南CNG加气站的选址为例验证了该算法的可行性。(3)根据CNG汽车工程项目的特点,从项目实施过程、经济效益、安全性、环境影响和可持续性五个方面构建了三级项目后评价指标体系,既囊括了一般项目后评价内容中对项目实施过程、经济效益和可持续性的评价,又突出了天然气汽车项目在安全、环保和节能方面的特点。(4)鉴于天然气汽车项目后评价中各指标的不确定性和模糊性,结合模糊物元分析法建立了天然气汽车项目后评价模型,并以海南天然气汽车项目为例验证了该评价方法的合理性。?更多还原

【Abstract】 Natural gas as a clean energy is favored by more and more people. However the management of compressed natural gas vehicle program is still a problem to be resolved.This dissertation deals with CNG vehicle program management life cycle, mainly on three stages: planning management, implementing management and post-evaluation management, several management methods and study models related in each stage were explored. In the planning and implementing management, CNG vehicle population prediction model and layout of gas station is established, and project schedule management is also studied from life-cycle view. In the post–evaluation management, CNG vehicle program post-evaluation index system is built and comprehensive evaluation model is studied based on fuzzy matter-element analysis theory. At last, management of Hainan CNG vehicle program was analyzed from planning, implementing and post-evaluation, and improvement suggestions are proposed.The main contributions of this dissertation include:(1)With a combination of construction and operation stages in project life cycle, gas filling station project schedule was studied, and a fuzzy dependent-chance programming model was established. A monkey algorithm based simulation method to the model was designed, and used to a filling station project schedule numerical simulation.(2)According to the characteristics of CNG vehicle program, transportation costs, CNG vehicle population and gas station space are selected as the main decision variable in the process of station layout. Simulated annealing algorithm based on simulation method is designed in the model optimization, and applied to Hainan CNG station layout problem.(3)In view of the characteristics of natural gas vehicle program, the contents of the post-evaluation are analyzed from five aspects: implementation process, economics and finance, safety, environmental effects, and sustainability. Based on this analysis, a three-layer post-evaluation index system is established. This newly-designed index system not only includes the evaluation for implementation process, finance and sustainability in general project post-evaluation, but also highlights the characteristics of natural gas vehicle program in aspects of safety, environmental protection and energy conservation. (4)In view of the uncertainty and fuzzy of indexes for evaluating natural gas vehicle program, this paper builds natural gas vehicle post-evaluation model based on fuzzy matter-element method, and applies this model to Hainan natural gas vehicle program.更多还原