【作者】 肖亮；

【导师】 赵黎明；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 在城市化快速发展的背景下,满足本地城市居民和外来休闲旅游者的休闲需求是实现城市可持续发展的重要保证,城市休闲系统的完善是实现这一目标的内在要求。我国的城市休闲研究处于起步阶段,尚缺乏从系统论的角度对整个城市休闲系统进行深入系统的研究。本文通过理论研究和实证分析,综合运用系统分析法、主成分分析法、实证分析法、问卷调查与访谈法等研究方法对城市休闲系统的构成、结构、运行机制、发展模式、因果关系、主要反馈回路、系统仿真与预测等问题进行深入研究。研究结果对于指导我国城市建设、城市经营和城市休闲产业的健康发展,充实城市休闲理论具有重要的理论与实践意义。本文的主要创新之处是:第一,构建了城市休闲系统框架。提出城市休闲系统是指在区域和城市特定的生态、社会、经济、文化背景下,各种休闲要素有机的结合在一起,形成的一个自然——经济——社会复合系统。主要由城市休闲需求系统、城市休闲引力系统、城市休闲运行系统和城市休闲支持系统四个子系统构成,其中需求子系统对城市休闲系统的发展起推动作用,引力子系统起到拉动作用,支持子系统起到保障作用,运行子系统起到能动作用。城市休闲系统随着城市经济、社会的进步而不断发展,处在不断的运行中。第二,进行了城市休闲系统运行的仿真分析。运用系统论与系统动力学的原理和方法,构建了城市休闲系统的系统仿真模型,设立了模型变量和公式,采用Vensim?PLE软件绘制了城市休闲系统的系统结构模型图,并以武汉市为例进行实证分析,检验了模型的有效性,对武汉市城市休闲系统进行仿真与预测。探索了一种从定量的角度反映城市休闲系统运行机制的方法,以观测城市休闲系统运行的特征,找到系统中起主要作用的反馈回路和政策的杠杆作用点,为制定城市休闲相关政策,促进城市休闲系统可持续发展提供依据。第三,建立了城市休闲系统的发展模式。在确定城市休闲系统发展影响因子的基础上,对国内287个地级及以上城市的城市休闲系统发展的影响因子进行主成分分析、回归分析,探索出影响城市休闲系统发展的主导影响因子,根据各主导影响因子对不同城市休闲系统发展的作用机理提出城市休闲系统发展的四种模式,并对每种模式的基本内涵与作用机理予以深入剖析,还根据主导影响因子的不同驱动力作用提出城市休闲系统发展的模式组合。更多还原

【Abstract】 To meet the leisure demands of both local urban residents and foreign tourists is quite important of realizing sustainable city development in the context of rapid urbanization, the development of city leisure system is the internal requirement to achieve this goal. The research on city leisure is still at the initial stage in China, lack of the perspective from the system theory. This paper synthetically use the theory and the method, such as system analysis, principal component analysis, Questionnaire and interview , and real diagnosis analysis etc, emphasize on the system’s structure, composition factor, running mechanism, development modle, causal relation model, and main feed back cycles, system simulation and prediction of city leisure system. We make efforts to provide scientific theory basis and the suitable operating procedure to the city leisure research and city development, city management, and city leisure industyry development in our country.The major innovative contents in this paper are: firstly, by constructing the structural frame of city leisure system, this paper proposes that the city leisure system is a composite system of nature, economy, and society integrated by all kinds of leisure factor in the background of city and region’s ecology, society, economy, and culture. The city leisure system consists of demand system, attractive force system, Operating system, and Support System. The city leisure system is developing with of city’s economic and social improvement. Secondly, we apply system simulation on city leisure system operating. It constructs the simulation model of the city leisure system by using the system dynamics principle and software VENSIM. It takes the Wuhan city as a case, carrying on the simulation model, analyzing and forecasting the result of the model. This dissertation has found a quantitative method to explore the operating mechanism of city leisure system, observing characteristics of city leisure system operation to find the key feedback loop which paly the most important role and the policy leverage points for the development of city leisure policies, to promote cities provide the basis for sustainable development of leisure systems. Thirdly, this dissertation establishes the development modle of city leisure system. By using the principal component analysis and regression Analysis, based on 287 domestic city level and above, we analysis on the major power factors of the city leisure development quantitatively. We propose four development model of city leisure system development according to the major power factors and their mechanism on the city leisure development, analying the basic content and mechanism of each model, and also propsing a development model portfolio of city leisure system according to the dominant influence of different factors driving force.更多还原