【作者】 任晓红；

【导师】 张宗益；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 自改革开放以来,中国各地实现了不同程度的发展,但基于“新古典增长经济学”收敛假说(Barro and Xala-i-Martin,1995)的良好愿望至今没有实现,与之相对的是我国地区间差距的日益扩大,这对新古典增长理论提出了较为严峻的挑战。二十世纪九十年代兴起的新经济地理学由于引入了空间维度,在解释工业集聚和地区差距问题上相对于传统的经济学更具说服力。新经济地理学主张,要素流动与地区收入差距之间存在着内生性关系,地区差距在很大程度上归因于各地区工业发展的不平衡性(Krugman,1991;Baldwin et al.,2003),因此,作为地区工业发展平衡性主要标志的经济活动的空间分布问题再次引起广泛的关注。传统的区位理论和新经济地理学十分强调交通运输成本对经济活动空间分布的作用,将交通运输费用视为影响工业区位和要素流动最为重要的因素。然而,随着交通的不断改善和非物质性流动重要性的逐步提高,运输成本呈下降趋势。当交通基础设施存量达到一定水平时,运输成本在产业分布中的作用越来越小,依据Krugman的中心-外围模型,当运输成本降至极低时,产业分布由不可移动的生产要素决定。因此,单纯从运输成本的视角来研究交通基础设施对经济活动空间分布的影响不尽合理,理论上需要将交通基础设施作为一个独立变量,并以此来表征由交通基础设施存量改变引致的运输成本、土地租金、通勤成本以及通达性和网络性变化对经济活动空间分布的影响。然而,现有的研究大多将研究着眼点放在运输成本上,未将交通基础设施作为独立变量纳入到生产函数中,致使迄今为止仍缺乏较为完整的交通基础设施区位效应的理论分析框架。此外,有一部分研究虽然考虑了交通基础设施引致的土地等不可移动生产要素价格对经济活动空间分布的影响,但是这类研究对产业和要素空间依赖性却没有给予应有的重视。同时,上述两类文献通常是在工业品与农产品运输成本均为零,或者农产品的运输成本为零,或者劳动要素的通勤成本为零的假设前提下演绎而来的,这在本质上存在着对运输成本一定程度的忽略,也是导致其研究结论与客观现实不符的主要原因所在,这些均为论文的研究留下了广阔的拓展空间。论文首先在迪克希勒-斯蒂格利茨分析框架下尝试性地将交通基础设施作为独立变量纳入到生产函数中,发展了包容新古典和新经济地理学特征的两地区两部门的一般均衡模型,将交通基础设施对产品的运输成本、要素的流动成本以及土地租金等空间成本的影响整合到新经济地理学模型的理论框架之中,并在此基础上分析交通基础设施对劳动力要素与地区差距的影响。由于资本和技术总可以折合成一定当量的劳动,因此,劳动力要素的流动机理也适合资本和技术要素的流动;其次,论文对交通基础设施的区位效应及其产生的机理作了分析;再次,论文构建了包含交通基础设施存量的资本流动模型来检验资本流动的影响因素、影响方向及其影响程度;同时,论文在对交通基础设施存量与技术溢出及制造业投资强度的空间依赖性检验的基础上,分别构建了相应的空间计量经济学模型,并以此来分析技术溢出与制造业区位选择的影响因素及影响程度;此外,论文分析并检验了要素流动对制造业区位选择产生的影响、要素流动与制造业区位对地区差距产生的影响,并从该视角对近年来中国交通投资政策的合理性做出评价。最后,在上述研究的基础上,提出基于要素流动与制造业区位的交通投资政策建议。论文的研究发现:①运输成本对城乡收入差距具有双向影响,工业品的运输成本与城乡收入差距正相关,农产品的运输成本与之负相关;当农村人口占总人口的比重较大时,改善交通基础设施能促进劳动力要素的流动和缩小城乡之间的收入差距,但随着劳动力要素不断地向城市集聚并达到某一临界值时,改善交通基础设施对劳动力要素流动性的影响不再显著。②研究期内,我国各省域的交通基础设施存量与技术要素、制造业投资强度和制造业区位在空间分布上有很强的一致性。交通基础设施存量对所在区域的技术溢出和制造业选址具有正向促进作用,对所在区域资本要素的流出具有显著的抑制作用,交通基础设施是影响经济活动空间分布的重要因素。③要素流动能冲击本地市场效应和价格指数效应进而对制造业区位产生影响。通过冲击流入与流出地区的投资、产出与市场规模,对要素流入的地区产生正向影响,对其流出的地区产生负向影响,并最终影响制造业的空间分布。④由于交通基础设施能促进劳动力和技术要素的流入、抑制资本要素的流出和促进制造业选址到某个区域,因此,提高欠发达地区的交通基础设施水平能促进欠发达地区内生发展动力的增强,从而抑制欠发达地区因其要素和制造业进一步流向发达地区而导致的地区差距扩大化。⑤在过去一段时期内,我国的交通基础设施投资分配存在着严重的比例失衡,其投资主要集中在东中部地区,西部地区的交通投资严重欠缺,这将导致地区差距的进一步扩大。因此,中国要缩小地区差距,取得地区间的协调发展,交通基础设施投资应向西部欠发达地区和农村倾斜,着力提高这些地区交通投资的比重。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening-up, development of different degrees has been realized throughout China. But good wishes based on the“new classical economics growth”convergence hypothesis (Barro and Xala-i-Martin, 1995) has not been realized yet. On the contrary, the gap between areas in China is widening, and it suggests a more serious challenge for new classical growth theory. Because of the introduction of spatial dimensions, new economic geography which raised in the 1990s is more convincing compared to the conventional economics in the interpretation of industrial agglomeration and regional gap. As the new economic geography claims that there is endogenous relation between factor mobility and regional income disparity, and it is the imbalance of industrial development that causes regional disparities on a large scale (Krugman, 1991; Baldwin et al., 2003), hence, the spatial distribution of economic activity has aroused widespread concern once again as a main reflection of regional industrial development balance. Traditional location theory and new economic geography emphasize on the role which transportation costs play in the spatial distribution of economic activities, meanwhile, transportation costs are believed to be the most significant factor that affect the factor mobility and industrial location. nonetheless, with the traffic flow continuously improved and the importance of non-material gradually increased, transportation costs declines at the meantime, transportation costs play a much smaller role in industrial distribution when the transportation infrastructure stock reaches a certain level, according to the Krugman’s core-periphery model, when the transportation costs reach an extremely low level, industry distribution will be decided by the non-mobile production factors. Therefore, it is not suitable to study how transportation infrastructure affects the distribution of economic activities only from the perspective of transportation costs. Transportation infrastructure should be seemed as an independent parameter, and as a sign to characterize how the change in transportation costs, land rent, commuting costs, accessibility and network affect the distribution of economic activities due to the change of transportation infrastructure. Nevertheless, majority of the contemporary scholars are focusing on the transportation costs, rather than putting transportation infrastructure into production function as an independent variable, which result in the lack of complete theoretical analysis framework in transportation infrastructure location effect hitherto. In addition, although some studies have take the change of the non-mobile production factors’prices into consideration, such as land will affect the distribution of economic activities as a consequence of the transportation infrastructure, the remarkable attention has not been giving to the spatial dependence of industries and factors. At the same time, these two types of literature above are usually based on the assumption that the transportation costs of industrial and agricultural products are zero, or the commuting costs of labor are zero, which in essence exists ignorance in transportation costs to a certain extent, the contradiction between reality and conclusion will be deduced under such assumption, on the other hand, these all left a wide space to develop for the studyFirstly, this article tentatively brought Transportation Infrastructure as the independent variable into the production function which based on the Dixit-Stiglitz analytical framework. It developed the general equilibrium model of two regions and two departments with the feature of Neo-classical Geography and New Economic Geography, and integrated the effect that transportation infrastructures caused to the products transportation costs, factors current cost and land rental, etc, space costs into the theoretical framework of New Economic Geography Model. Additionally, the article analyzed the impact that transportation infrastructures caused to the labor factor and regional difference. Because capitals and technologies can be converted into a certain equivalent labors, therefore, the fluidity mechanism of labor force element is suitable for the flow of capitals and technologies. Secondly, the article analyzed the regional effect of transportation infrastructures and the mechanism it produced. Thirdly, it established a Capital Movement Model which contains traffic infrastructures’cumulative amount, so as to test the influencing factors, influencing direction and degree of capital movement. Meanwhile, based on the test on the spatial dependency of traffic infrastructures’cumulative amount and technology spillover and manufacturing investment intensity, the article separately established relevant Spatial Econometrics Models and using the models to analyze the influence factors and degree of technology spillover and manufacturing regional selection. Besides, the article analyzed and tested the effect that factor flow caused to manufacturing regional selection, as well as what impact factor flow and manufacturing regional selection will have on regional differences; and from this perspective the paper made evaluation on the rationality of Chinese transportation investment policies in recent years. At last, on the base of above studies, the article proposed transportation investment policies which were based on factor flow and manufacturing region. From this paper we can find that,①Transportation costs has a two-way impact on rural-urban income gap, in other words, industrial transport costs is positively correlated to rural-urban income gap while the costs is negatively correlated with it. When the rural population is larger than the urban population, the improvement of transportation infrastructure can promote the labor factor mobility and reduce the income gap between urban and rural areas, but as the labor factor in urban continue to agglomerate to a critical value, the impact of improving transport infrastructure to labor factor’s mobility has no longer been significant.②During the researching period, the stock of the transportation infrastructure and technical elements have a strong consistency with manufacturing investment and location in the spatial distribution in every provincial domain in China. Stock of transportation infrastructure has a positive role in region’s technology spillovers and manufacturing site, and is significantly inhibited to the region’s capital outflow. So the transport infrastructure is an important factor that affects economic activities in spatial distribution.③Factor mobility can impact the local market and price index, and further impact Manufacturing Location. The impact of the region’s investment, output and market size is positive to the areas with elements inflows, and negative to the ones with elements outflows, and ultimately affect the spatial distribution of the manufacturing sector.④As transportation infrastructure can promote the inflow of labor and technical factors, inhibit the outflow of capital elements and is good for the promotion of manufacturing site to a region, therefore, improving the level of transport infrastructure lagged behind within the region can enhance the endogenous development. Thus, it can inhibit the expansion of regional differentiation because of the flow of factors and manufacturing in less developed regions to developed ones in a further extent.⑤In the past period of time, there exists a serious imbalance in China’s transportation infrastructure investment allocation. The transportation investment is mainly concentrated in eastern and central regions in China, while, the western region is serious deficiency which will lead to further expansion of regional disparities. Therefore, to reduce regional disparities in China to get the coordinated development between different regions, the direction of transport infrastructure investments should be tilted in the West and rural areas which have extremely low level of transport infrastructure, and invest more to the regions.更多还原