【作者】 肖皓；

【导师】 赖明勇； 史鹤凌；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 应用经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 随着时代的不断发展,改革的步伐不断加快,燃油税已经超出一般商品消费税框架,同时肩负了“费改税”、理顺成品油价格、能源税、环境税等多方面内涵。每种内涵意味着背后都存在一群利益团体,因此燃油税的设计无疑将成为一个非常棘手又非常重要的问题。对比国外成熟的燃油税政策,我国当前的燃油税制度安排处于试行阶段,相关配套措施还未完善,具有进一步优化的空间。由于燃油税的丰富内涵,论文从科学发展观的角度出发,基于经济-能源-环境-汽车运输的动态一般均衡分析视角,构建了燃油税的动态CGE模型进行定量研究。燃油税的动态CGE模型以MCHUGE模型为原型,引入了能源产品的替代关系、交通运输部门的替代关系,细化了家庭的能源消费行为和交通运输行为,构建了包含9种不同污染物的排放方程,刻画了石油部门和汽车制造业部门的垄断特性,构建了反映汽车流量、存量与燃油消耗的汽车-燃油模块,纳入了福利分析模块,考虑了从价税与从量税的模拟方程,构建了基于宏观经济、能源结果和环境结果的分析评估模块。数据库方面,论文在MCHUGE模型的基础上,根据研究需要合并和拆分BASEDATA数据库,增加了EEDATA数据库和CARFUELDATA数据库,构建了燃油税CGE模型的基础数据库。动态模拟基线方面,论文重新调整了2005-2007的历史模拟值,详细刻画了能源、汽车以及交通运输的历史模拟基线。同时,根据金融危机对中国经济以及汽车产业的潜在损害,以及“汽车产业振兴计划”对中国汽车产业发展的动态影响,结合已有的2008年和2009年上半年的统计数据,以及相关的预测研究报告,设计了金融危机时期中国宏观经济的发展轨迹以及汽车销售的变化轨迹。运用该模型,论文系统评估当前燃油税政策,并从燃油税的征税环节、税率、以及双重红利效果出发,讨论潜在的优化空间。当前成品油价格形成机制扭曲了燃油价格,放大了燃油税对经济影响。同时,在一般均衡条件下,政府税收总额增量要小于拟征燃油税税额,其中燃油税转嫁比例大于40%。燃油税加剧了物价上涨,对经济增长和居民福利短期有较大损害,长期略有减缓,如充分考虑能源品的替代性,损害程度相比减少;高中能耗产业产出相比降幅较大,而充分考虑能源产品替代性时,能源产业产出下降相对明显。节能方面,受规模效应和产业结构调整的影响,燃油税带动了单位GDP能耗下降,长期效果更为显著,如充分考虑能源产品替代性,能源产品的替代效应部分抵消了节能效果。减排方面,受产出规模和产业结构调整的影响,各种污染物均有显著的下降,但如充分考虑能源产品替代性,污染排放结构出现了较大的差异性,其中CO2和SO2排放反而上升。分车型汽车需求方面,M1L类和N2类汽车需求下滑最快,N3类汽车需求相比有所上升,其他车型需求略微下降。具体到分燃料类型,汽油车销量降幅将更显著。相比当前成品油价格机制,理顺成品油价格机制会减缓金融危机对经济的损害。燃油税转嫁比例相比较小,实际GDP和居民福利均有所上升,物价指数略微上升,节能和环保效果更好。进一步对比燃油税在生产环节(含进口环节)、批发环节以及零售环节的征收效果,无论是经济增长方面,产业结构、节能减排以及分车型需求变化,批发环节的政策效果处于生产环节(含进口环节)和零售环节之间,但如果考虑到广税基原则、最小征收费用原则以及未来的能源税发展方向,批发环节的综合效应相对最优。在燃油税率的比较研究中发现,如考虑能源产品之间的替代性以及家庭运输的替代性,燃油税率的同比提高对经济、能源、环境、汽车销售的影响呈非线性关系,即二次导数不等于0。总体而言,进一步提高燃油税率,经济增长、节能减排效果将产生累退效应。燃油税率的双重红利研究中发现,当新增税收完全补贴给要素收入,减少要素市场扭曲时,第一重红利和第二重红利的效果均非常显著。动态来看,长期的双重红利效果要显著小于短期红利效果,尤其是在节能方面。最后,论文指出当前的燃油税政策具有广阔的优化的空间,如进一步理顺成品油价格外,考虑批发环节,税率的进一步提高,以实现双重红利的效果等。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of China economy and accelerating the tax reform, the signification of fuel tax as commodity tax in China is not only the substitution of the road toll, but also the reform of refined oil prices, energy taxes and environmental taxes. Every meaning represents a kind of interest groups, so the design of fuel tax undoubtedly becomes a very difficult and important issue. Compared with foreign fuel tax policy, the system of fuel tax in China isn’t so mature that there are some points need to be optimized. At this point and with the view of the science outlook of development, this paper build a dynamic CGE model of the fuel tax to analyze the fuel tax shock in China and discuss the potential optimization. The evaluation target includes the economy effect, energy effect, environment effect and the auto transport effect.The dynamic CGE model of fuel tax is based on MCHUGE model. The paper builds the energy substitution module where considering the substitution relationship among 13 kinds of energy products and 3 kinds of primary factors in produce process, the transports substitution module, the households consumption module with the substitution of energy goods and the substitution of households’transport, the pollution modules containing 9 kinds of pollutant emissions, the imperfect competition modules in the oil sector and automotive manufacturing sector, the auto-fuel module including the equations of sales and inventory of different kinds of autos, and the fuel consumption, the welfare analysis module, the ad valorem tax and the unit tax simulation equations, and the module of analysis in macro-economic, energy and environment. This paper also builds the database of dynamic CGE model of fuel tax correspondingly. Based on the BASEDATA in MCHUGE model, I spit and merge some sectors according to research requirement, and add the new database of EEDATA and CARFUELDATA. This paper readjusts the historical baseline from 2005 to 2007, and characterizes the historical baseline of energy industry, automobile industry and transportation from 1997-2007. Meanwhile, after simulating the potential damage of financial crisis on China’s economy and automobile industry, as well as the dynamic effects of“Automobile Industry Promotion Plan”, and combining the statistical date of year 2008 and the first half year of 2009, as well as some forecast data from the authority institution, the paper designs the forecast baseline of China’s macro economy and the track of the changes in vehicle sales during the financial crisis from 2009 to 2015.Using this model, the paper discusses the current fuel tax, and the potential optimization project, such as tax stage, tax rates as well as the double dividend effect.Currently refined oil pricing mechanism distorts fuel price, and amplifies the economy impact of fuel duty. Meanwhile, in the general equilibrium conditions, the total amount of government revenue less than the fuel tax which will be levied, where the shifted proportion of the fuel tax is greater than 40%. In the simulation, the price of output increases, and the significant damage to economic growth and resident welfare in the short-term. And the long-term effect will slow down. While taking consideration substitution among energy products, the damage decreases significantly. In the view of the industry structure, the output in high energy-intensive industries falls largely, and that of energy industry decrease as fully consideration of substitution among energy products. In the view of energy saving, fuel tax drives the decrease in unit GDP energy consumption by the scale effect and the industrial structure adjustment, particularly in the long-term; however, the substitution effects of energy products offset part of energy saving effects. In the view of pollutant emission, various pollutants decrease significantly by the effect of scale and the industrial structure adjustment, but the pollution emission structure is large differences, where CO2 and SO2 emissions rise contrarily. In the view of demand in motor vehicle, the types of M1L and N2 decline, the type of N3 increases, and the other types slightly decease. The results also show that the sales of gasoline car fall obviously.Compared with the current refined oil pricing mechanism, the pricing mechanism of refined oil decided by market will reduce the economic loss. The shifted proportion of the fuel tax less, and the real GDP and the civilians’ welfare increase. Besides, the price of output slightly increases. In sum, the effect of energy conservation and environmental protection perform better. Further comparing with the fuel tax levying in production stage (including import), wholesale stage and retail stage, the policy effects of levying in wholesale stage, such as the economic growth, industrial structure, energy saving, emission reduction and the sales of autos, are between production stage and retail sale stage. However, if taking principle of large tax base, principle of minimum cost and the development direction of energy tax in the future into account, levying in wholesale stage rank first. On the comparative analysis of different fuel tax rates, if considering the substitution of energy products, the relationship between the extent of fuel tax rate and the impacts on economy, energy, environment and motor vehicle sales are non-linear, that is the second derivative doesn’t equal zero. Generally speaking, a further increase in fuel tax rate will has a regressive effect on both economic growth and energy saving and emission reduction. Based on the results of researching double dividend effects of fuel tax, this paper finds that when the additional tax revenue was subsidized to factors income where lessening distortion in the factor market, the effects of both dividends are highly significant. In the dynamic view, the long-term double dividend effect is significantly smaller than the short-term one, especially in energy-saving aspect.Finally, the paper points out that the current fuel tax policies have a broad space for optimization, such as further reforming in the refined oil pricing mechanism, levying in the wholesale stage, increasing the fuel tax rates to achieve the effect of double dividend.更多还原