【作者】 赵静敏；

【导师】 刘传哲；

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学 ， 金融工程与风险管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 金融发展和国际贸易因其对经济增长的重要作用被视为当今世界经济发展的两大主题。随着经济一体化的深入发展,金融与贸易在区域内以及区域间的融合与互动关系日益突出,金融与贸易问题越来越引起人们的重视。而我国金融发展与对外贸易的发展实践已经证明,无论是金融发展还是对外贸易的发展,都有力地促进了我国经济的发展。但是,金融发展对我国对外贸易产生怎样的影响?金融发展能否促进我国对外贸易的发展?尤其是否促进我国外贸出口的规模增长和外贸出口的结构的优化?如果能够促进的话,又是通过什么样的机理和途径?……等等这些问题都被金融发展理论和国际贸易理论所忽略了。本文拟对这个新兴的研究主题进行系统的理论和实证研究。本文主要对金融发展与对外贸易的理论进行系统分析与思考。具体内容从金融发展对外贸发展的作用机理、传导模型设定、实证分析以及政策建议等四个方面进行展开。论文首先构建了一个金融发展影响对外贸易发展的理论框架,力求在前人研究的基础上,初步建立起金融发展对外贸影响的理论体系,为实证研究提供可行的理论基础。其次,对金融发展水平和对外贸易发展水平进行了量化指标设计,这些指标体系是下文所有研究必不可少的指标数据;同时进行了我国外贸发展影响因素分析,并分别建立了金融发展对外贸影响的宏观传导模型和微观传导模型。再次,在指标数据分析的基础上,我们分别基于时间序列协整、多变量VAR模型和PanelData模型从全国视角对中国整体金融发展对外贸的影响和区域视角对各区域金融发展的对外贸易效应进行了实证检验,并严格区分金融发展规模水平和金融发展效率对我国对外贸易发展的规模和外贸出口商品结构发展的差异性影响。分析了金融发展通过各个宏观变量影响外贸规模、外贸结构,进而找出金融发展对我国外贸影响的传导途径。我们还从产业视角检验了金融发展我国对外贸影响的传导途径,利用规模经济、外部融资对制造业出口的作用机理,从产业层面分析金融发展对贸易增长的传导途径,并以我国29个制造业外贸出口为例,进行经验研究。接着,论文还从风险管理视角,分析金融发展对我国对外贸易传导过程中的风险规避。通过分析我国对外贸贸易存在的风险,探讨了我国金融体系对我国外贸提供的金融服务。借助金融系统特有的风险管理的功能,提供相应的规避风险的手段和办法促进对外贸易的发展。同时,分析了金融市场发展与贸易融资的关系以及金融危机对贸易的传导,进而找出金融发展通过金融市场的发展、完善以及贸易融资的途径作用与外贸发展的机理,规避贸易风险。最后,给出主要结论及政策建议。主要结合我国金融发展与贸易的现状分析以及影响我国对外贸易发展的金融因素提升,提出相应的金融与贸易政策以及规避风险的措施,使我国金融改革与外贸制度改革协调进行。本文的主要创新点在于:1.构建了金融发展对外贸影响的基本理论框架。在对相关理论进行综述和比较分析的基础上,结合金融发展理论和国际贸易理论,分析金融发展作用于对外贸易的机理与传导途径,初步建立了较为系统的金融发展对我国外贸影响的理论分析体系。2.设计并构建了我国金融发展水平综合指标体系。论文基于前人研究的金融发展零散的各个指标,利用中国金融发展指标数据,并借助统计方法,构建了金融发展的综合指标体系,用较少的相互独立的变量代替了原来变量的大部分信息,并用于实证分析中,减少了实证研究过程中,数据测量的误差或异常值所带来的负面影响,研究结果表明:综合指标体系获得了更强的解释力。3.论文基于金融发展对外贸的作用机理和传导途径的分析,建立了多变量VAR模型,应用协整理论、Granger因果关系检验及面板数据协整等方法进行了全国视角、区域视角和产业视角三个不同层面的实证检验。从多变量、多层面的角度对金融发展作用于对外贸易进行建模研究,解决了单位根过程与伪回归的判别问题。研究结果支持了金融发展和对外贸易之间理论上存在的关系,不同层面的实证检验表明传导的过程有所不同。对于和全文的理论分析相悖的问题,我们给予了解释和分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Financial development and international business are considered as two major subjects of present world economic development due to important functions on economic increases. As economic integration advanced to develop integration and interaction of finance and business in or inter regions stand out day by day. Problems of finance and business arouse more and more focuses of people. Moreover, our country’s financial development and foreign trade developing practices have improved no matter what financial development and foreign trade development strongly have promoted our country’s economic development.However, what influences will financial development make on China foreign trade? Will financial development promote China foreign trade development? Especially, will it boost to increase scale of the foreign export and optimize structure of foreign export? If it can promote, what mechanism and channel will we choose? All of these problems are omitted by financial developing theories and international business theories. This dissertation supposes to systematically theoretical and empirical analyze about this subject.This dissertation systematically analyses of financial development and foreign trade. The content of it will around four aspects: mechanism analysis of function of financial development on foreign trade development, conduction model set, empirical test and policy recommendations.Firstly, we construct theoretical structure of financial development influencing foreign trade development. Based on predecessors’researches, the purpose of it is to initially establish theoretical system for providing feasible theoretical basis to empirical following research. In addition, it does quantitative index design for level of financial and foreign trade development, by principle component analysis constructs comprehensive index systems of financial development that are indispensable index figures for researches of below content. Based on mechanism analysis of function of financial development on foreign trade, respectively utilizing time series coordination, VAR model and Panel Data model, from country and regional view, it does empirical test on influences of our country financial development on foreign trade and influencing channels. Besides, it seriously differentiates influences of financial developing scale level and efficiency on the scale of our foreign trade development and development of foreign export structure.Furthermore, it focuses on analyzing financial development influences the scale and structure of foreign trade by each macro-variable, in order to find conducting channels of influences of financial development on our country’s foreign trade. The research results show: per capital, human resource, industry structure and real interest are distinctive channels by which financial development influences on our country foreign trade. However, the transferring position of technological innovation and real effective exchange rate in functions of financial development on foreign trade does not reflect. Moreover, it analyses inter-relationship between financial development and manufacturing industry foreign export from the industry level and empirically tests conducting channels by which financial development and scale of economy influences on foreign export of our country’s manufacturing industry.Additionally, from the view of risk management, the dissertation analyses risk aversion in the process financial development conducts our country’s foreign trade. Simultaneously, it researches financial market development and conduction of business finance and financial crisis towards trade, then finds financial development through development and improvement of financial market, conducting function of business finance and mechanism of foreign trade development, in order to averse business risk.Finally, the dissertation explains conclusion of researches, then put forward policy recommendations for promoting finance and business coordinating development.更多还原