【作者】 田勇；

【导师】 胡明华；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国国民经济的高速发展和国防能力的增强,军民航飞行活动增长迅速,且空中交通流量分布极不均衡。当空域容量无法满足流量需求时,所导致的空中交通拥塞不仅严重影响飞行安全,而且给军民航带来巨大的经济损失。空中交通流量管理(ATFM)是解决空中交通拥塞最有效、最经济的手段,美国、欧洲等航空发达国家已经建立、并仍在不断完善各自的空中交通流量管理系统,并因此取得了巨大的效益。借鉴国外先进经验,建立我国的空中交通流量管理体系,是我国航空运输快速发展的迫切需要和必然趋势。有关部门已经启动对空中交通流量管理体系、流量管理核心技术、系统开发等方面的研究,并首次将“协同流量管理核心技术”纳入国家863计划“新一代国家空中交通管理系统”重大项目中,作为发挥新一代国家空管系统在空管运行中技术优势的重要保证。本文首先阐述空中交通流量管理的基本概念和国内外流量管理发展现状,接着对国内外相关技术研究进行了综述,在此基础上以建设国家空中交通流量管理系统为目标,对空中交通流量管理系统中的部分关键技术进行了研究,主要包括以下内容:1、建立了机场地面静态和动态的容量评估模型,应用Dijkstra算法和滑动时间窗对容量评估模型进行求解,提高了动态容量评估模型的准确性和灵活性,并将成果应用于深圳宝安国际机场的改扩建工程。本文对空中交通容量的定义、评估方法进行了归纳、总结,通过对不同空域单元影响容量因素和限制条件的对比分析,将影响因素分为空域(机场)使用策略、航班流特性、实际管制间隔三类,根据这三类影响因素的时效性分别建立了静态评估模型和动态评估模型,并与目前国内大量机场改扩建中需要对机场地面进行容量评估的实际需求相结合,选取深圳宝安国际机场分别进行了静态和动态容量评估。针对机场地面动态容量评估,一方面在建立地面网络模型的过程中采用Dijkstra算法,实现航班模型的最短路径的搜寻;另一方面在对飞机动态分配路径的同时,采用滑动时间窗方法优化航班序列。评估结果表明,动态容量为一个时变量,可为制定预战术或战术流量管理方案提供决策支持;在动态评估中通过搜寻最短路径减小了以往采用固定滑行路径评估的误差,还大大提高了模型的灵活性,可对机场的改扩建起到参考作用。2、建立了基于进离场容量转化的单机场地面等待策略及多机场地面等待策略的多目标优化模型,设计了多目标遗传算法,并应用于全国航班计划的优化。在对现有单机场、多机场地面等待模型进行总结的基础上,针对机场跑道同时用于进场与离场的运行实际,而目前大多单机场地面等待策略模型中只专注于进场航班对机场容量影响的实际情况,提出基于进离场容量转化的单机场地面等待策略模型。该模型通过进场优先级可对进场、离场航班队列进行调节,得到适合于离场、适合于进场和进离场均衡的最优解。针对目前多机场地面等待模型中大多以航班总延误损失最小为单一的目标函数,难以满足不同方、不同情景的需求,将多机场地面等待问题作为一个多目标优化问题处理,并采用快速非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-II)进行求解,得到满足约束的多个调配方案,为各方进行协调、决策提供了依据。最后以全国航班计划为实例,对选取总延误最小、准点率最高和被调整航班数最少三个指标作为目标函数,验证了模型的准确性和有效性。3、建立了不确定天气条件下空中等待、地面等待和改航三者相结合的改航策略,相比已有的改航模型,有利于提高航班的准点率和空域的使用率,减少后续航班的延误;利用马尔可夫链中的最大转移概率原理确定未来天气状态;采用人工智能中的A*算法进行航路更改后最短路径的求解,并结合实际飞行计划进行了仿真验证。4、对空域的灵活使用、空域分类研究进行了总结,结合我国国情对适用于我国的空域灵活使用方法和评估指数、空域分类空域动态管理机制的建设提出建议,并对空域运行管理仿真与评估系统提出初步方案,对系统结构和各分系统功能进行了描述。5、将理论研究的成果应用于实际,参与容量评估系统和地区级流量管理系统设计开发工作,对“容量评估系统”和“中南地区流量管理系统”的研制概况、各分系统的主要功能进行了介绍。目前,“容量评估系统”已成功应用于国内十二个繁忙机场(区域)的容量评估,“中南地区流量管理系统”已经在民航中南空管局试运行。各研究成果在机场和空管系统的良好应用对减少航班拥挤与航班延误、提高航班正常率和空域利用率、加大空中交通流量起到了重要作用,同时也为国家空中交通流量管理系统的建设提供参考和借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of our national economy and the reinforcement of the national defense power, both civil and military traffic activities are increasing at a high speed. However, the distribution of the air traffic flow is not balanced at all. When the airspace capacity cannot satisfy the demand of air flow, air traffic congestion resulted from that would not only severely compromise flight safety, but induce enormous economic losses to the military and civil aviation. Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) is the most effective and economical way to solve the air traffic congestion problem. The aeronautically developed countries such as USA and European countries have already established and are continuously perfecting their own ATFM system, and have achieved great benefits.Using the sophisticated experiences from abroad for reference and establishing our own ATFM system is the impending need of and inevitable tendency towards the speedy development of air transportation in our country. Relevant departments have already initiated the research on the ATFM system, the key technologies on flow management and system development etc,and for the first time, key technologies on coordinated flow management are included into one of the major programs of 863 Plan, named the new generation national air traffic management system, which ensures the technical advantage of the new generation national air traffic management system in the operation of ATC.This dissertation first expounds the basic concepts of ATFM and the actual situation of flow management both at home and abroad. Then it summarizes the related technology research throughout the world. In the last part, it makes an intensive research on part of the key technologies in the ATFM system with the goal of developing the national air traffic flow management system. The main contents are as follows:1. This dissertation summarizes the definition and evaluation method of air traffic capacity. Through contrastive analysis of the factors that affect the capacity and restraint conditions of different airspace units, the factors are divided into three categories, namely airspace (airport) using strategy, flight flow characteristics and actual control separation. Then static and dynamic evaluation models are established based on the time limits of the three factors. Combined with the actual need of the airport ground capacity evaluation of a lot of airports that need to reform or expand, the dissertation makes static as well as dynamic capacity evaluation of the Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport. In the airport ground dynamic capacity evaluation, the Dijkstra algorithm is used in the process of making the ground network model to realize the search for the shortest route of the model flight. When dynamically assigning routes for the aircraft, the flight order is optimized through sliding time window. The results show that, dynamic capacity is a time variable, and it can offer decision supports when a strategic or tactic flow management plan is going to be made; searching the shortest route during the evaluation can reduce the errors in the fixed taxi route evaluation, and meanwhile, it can also improve the flexibility of the model and can be used as a reference for the reform and expansion of airports.2. On the basis of summarizing the ground holding model of single airport and multiple airport and considering the fact that most of the domestic airports’runway is used for both arrivals and departures and that most of the single airport ground holding strategy models are mainly focused on the effects the arrival flights would have on the airport capacity, a single airport ground holding strategy model is established based on the capacity conversion of arrivals and departures. Through deciding the arrival priority level, this model can adjust the order of the arrival and departure flights to achieve the optimized result that conforms to the balance of departure, arrival or both departure and arrival. Considering that the current multiple airport ground holding models are making the minimum total delay loss as the sole target function which can not live up to the need of different parties and different situations, this dissertation solves the ground holding problem as a multiple target optimization problem and seeks the result by NSGA-II algorithm. The several solution plans that can satisfy the restraints can offer the basis for the coordination and decision-making of every party. In the end, the national flight plan is taken as an actual example. Using the minimum total delay, highest on-time ratio and the least number of adjusted flights separately as the target functions, the accuracy and effectiveness of the model is testified.3. By combining air route holding, ground holding and diversion, the rerouting strategy under uncertain weather conditions is established. Compared with the presently available rerouting model, the new model enhances the punctuality of flights and the usability of airspace: it uses Markov maximum displacement probability theory to decide the coming uncertain weather; by utilizing A* arithmetic in artificial intelligence, it provides a solution to the shortest route after rerouting, and offers simulation validation based on the actual flight plan.4. The dissertation summarizes the research on the flexible usage of the airspace and the airspace classification. Combined with the actual situation in China, it offers suggestions on the airspace flexible usage method and evaluation index, airspace classification and airspace dynamic management mechanism. Furthermore, it supplies an initial plan for the airspace operation management simulation and evaluation system and describes the organization of the system and the functions of each sub-system.5. To apply the theory into practice, the author takes part in the designing and development of capacity evaluation system and regional flow management system. The dissertation introduces the development situation and functions of each sub-system of the“capacity evaluation system”and“central-south region flow management system”. The capacity evaluation system has been applied to 12 busy domestic airports (regions); Central-south region flow management system has been test running in Central-south ATMB of CAAC. The application of the research outcome can be used to eliminate flight congestion and delay, improve the regularity of flights and availability of the airspace, increase air traffic flow, and directly serves the construction of national air traffic flow management system.更多还原