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系统动力学建构下交通枢纽型经济的发展理论与实证研究

The Theory and Empirical Research on Transportation Hub Economy Based on System Dynamics

【作者】 孟令兴

【导师】 蒲云;

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 , 系统工程, 2011, 博士

【摘要】 城市作为一种经济集聚的空间组织形式,是货物流、信息流、能源流和人员流等在时空层面上的集聚与扩散主体。其中,城市的交通运输与其经济发展更为密切相关:城市经济发展与交通运输建设的相关理论与实践表明,交通运输系统是城市经济系统的重要子系统之一,良好的交通区位优势与完善的交通运输系统能够充分实现城市内部乃至城市之间有关物流的集散和联通,满足城市经济的发展需求。现今,许多城市位于各种运输通道的交汇处,具备特殊的交通区位优势;同时,经济学的相关理论认为产业结构是衡量地区经济发展的重要指标之一。因而,如何从产业结构调整的需求角度出发,通过构建与逐步完善交通运输系统以推动具有特定交通区位优势的城市及区域经济发展是目前亟待解决的问题。本文利用“点—轴”理论、极化理论及区域经济学的其他相关理论创新性地提出了交通枢纽型经济的概念。同时,通过比较分析,指出交通枢纽型经济与通道经济、枢纽经济的联系与区别。将自组织理论与区域经济学原理相结合,对交通枢纽型经济影响下的产业演进及城市经济发展模式进行理论层面上的深入研究。在上述理论基础上,本文利用系统动力学方法,构建了城市经济系统与城市交通运输系统的关系模型,并以德州市为实证对象,通过计算机模拟仿真得出了德州市交通运输各类影响因子对发展交通枢纽型经济的影响程度。最后,针对德州市的具体情况,结合理论方法和实证的仿真结果,为德州市发展交通枢纽型经济提供了具体的针对性的对策建议。

【Abstract】 Cities, as one of the forms of economy aggregation, are the main body for flow of commodities, information, energies and people in the time-spatial level. Economic development is much related to the transportation. According to the theory and practice of city development and transportation, transport system is an important subsystem of city development, for well located advantage and developed transportation system can fully realize the distribution and connection of goods of intra-city and intercity and satisfy the development demand.Locating in the nodes of different kinds of transportation corridors, many cities have location advantage. On the other hand, based on the related theory, industrial structure is considered to be one of the vital indexes to measure the local economy. Therefore, it is pressing to promote the development of cities with specified location advantage by constructing and improving the transportation system in the view of industrial structure.Based on the point-axle exploit theory, polarization theory and some other local economic theories, this paper innovatively proposed the concept of "transportation hub theory". Besides, the differences and relations between transportation hub economic and corridor economic as well as hub economic are pointed out by comparison. Combined with self-organization theory and local economic theory, the industry evolvement and city economic development pattern under the transportation hub economic, is analyzed in-depth in the theory level.According to the above foundations, the relation model between city economic system and city transportation system is constructed via system dynamics method. In the empirical example of Dezhou city, to what extent of the impact on the development of transportation hub economic for different transportation factors in Dezhou is solved by simulation.Finally, some strategies for the development of transportation economic in Dezhou city are proposed according to the theory analysis, empirical simulation and the specified conditions of Dezhou for its own.

  • 【分类号】N941.3;F299.27;F572.88
  • 【被引频次】6
  • 【下载频次】891
  • 攻读期成果
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