【作者】 向睿；

【导师】 彭其渊；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 系统工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 快速城市化和机动化的进程,使得我国城市交通系统对能源需求的增长迅速；不可再生能源的有限,也让城市人口增长和降低交通能耗之间的矛盾成为制约我国城市交通可持续发展的瓶颈。有鉴于此,城市交通系统的节能减排已成为规划和建设“绿色城市”的重要组成部分。本文从影响因素、需求量、城市空间结构、城市交通规划和节能减排政策等五个方面系统研究了城市交通系统和能源消耗之间的关系,找到了降低城市交通能耗的有效方法,主要研究内容包括以下几个方面：(1)从系统的角度,以城市交通能耗的基本统计和计算方法为基础,从宏观层面(城市整体)、中观层面(交通小区或路网)、微观层面(交通工具)三个层面研究并总结了影响城市交通能源的因素：在城市经济社会发展的背景下,城市空间结构、城市规模和城市交通结构是影响城市交通总能耗的宏观因素,其中城市空间结构是首要因素,城市规模是重要因素,城市交通结构则是关键因素,各因素间相互关联共同决定了城市交通总能耗的发展趋势；城市路网、可达性和交通微循环系统是影响城市交通总能耗的中观因素；交通工具的单体能耗是影响城市交通总能耗的微观因素。(2)在总结国内外已有交通能源需求量预测模型的基础上,构建了Gompertz和Spread Sheet的组合模型作为城市交通能源需求量预测模型,并对成都市未来交通能源需求量及影响需求量因素进行了预测分析。另外,为分析各种因素对成都市客运交通能源需求量的影响,选用分解模型计算各因素的贡献率。结果显示：过去十年,城市化的进程是成都市客运交通能耗的首要驱动因素；未来十年,居民出行结构和机动化出行率将是影响成都市客运交通能源需求量的最主要因素。(3)从单中心和多中心的角度分析了城市空间结构对交通出行和能耗的影响,并以一个简单的计算实例,比较了单中心和多中心城市在交通能耗上的差异。在对复合功能开发、“紧凑城市”理念等进行分析之后,得到城市土地集约化发展有助于减少城市交通能耗的结论,在此基础上,以区间最小出行时耗为目标函数,建立了在城市交通能源约束情况下的土地优化模型。该模型的计算结果显示了在土地集约、混合发展的目标指引下,各种功能用地的最优比例,以及对城市交通总能耗的控制。(4)探讨了可持续交通、绿色交通、低碳交通等相关概念的内涵及意义。在此基础上,以可持续交通发展为目标,将交通系统能耗的概念引入交通规划,建立了城市交通系统最小能耗模型。该模型在满足城市机动化发展的前提下,考虑城市路网时空的容量限制,以实现城市交通系统的最小能耗。模型求解结果可显示常规公交车与小汽车在城市路网中的关系及合适的发展规模。为鼓励城市更多居民采用公共交通方式出行,建立了在交通能源、路网资源、环境容量等限制条件下,以城市交通系统交通效率最优和居民出行交通成本最少为目标函数的城市交通结构优化模型。模型以重庆市主城区2020年的规划目标值为参考,分析了规划年重庆市合理的交通结构组成。(5)在分析了交通政策的特点、分类及制定过程的基础上,采用动力学建模方法建立了城市客运交通的节能减排政策评估模型。模型以预测的上海市2020年的能源消耗和CO2排放量为基准情景,选取了三组不同的交通政策对上海市2020年客运交通的情景进行了分析对比,结果表明只有将不同目标的交通政策同时结合使用,才能真正实现节能减排的目标,单一政策的实施效果难以达到节能目标的要求。本文研究内容为在能源约束情况下的城市可持续交通发展提供了全新的思路和方法。总结来说,要实现绿色城市交通的目标,我国城市只能选择以公交模式为主导的交通系统,实行公共交通适度超前发展的战略,推动公共交通导向的土地利用和紧凑布局形态。只有在构建节能交通系统的基础上降低交通工具对油品燃料的依赖,才是城市交通系统可持续发展的最优途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the process of rapid urbanization and motorization in China, the energy demand of urban transport system is corresponding increasing. Due to limited non-renewable energy sources, the conflict between urban population growth and the reduction of transport energy has been held back the sustainable development of urban transport system. In view of this, the energy saving in urban transport system has become the aim of "low-carbon city" planning. In this paper, influencing factors, energy demand forcast, urban spatial structure, urban traffic planning and the policies on energy saving are chose to research the relationship between urban trasport system and transport energy consumption, and the main of this paper includes the following aspects:(1) From the system point of view, the influencing factors of urban transport energy consumption could be classified by the macro-level (whole city), the meso-level (road network or community) and the micro-level (vehicle). In terms of the macro-level, urban spatial structure, city size and urban traffic structure are the main factors, in which urban spatial structure is the primary factor, city size is the important factor and urban traffic structure is the key factor. All the interrelated macro-level factors together determine the total energy consumption of urban transport traffic. Urban road network, accessibility and city micro-transportation circulation are the meso-level factors to urban transport energy consumption. With respect to the micro-level, the energy consumption of monomer vehicle is the leading factor.(2) Based on the existing forecasting models of transport energy demand, Gompertz model and Spread Sheet model are made up to forecast urban transport energy demand, and this associated model is applied to Chengdu city. In addition, for analyzing the impact of various factors upon transport energy demand in Chengdu city, the decomposable model is created. The results showed that in the past decade, the process of urbanization is the primary factor to the increase in transport energy consumption, and in the next decade, traffic structure and trip rate of mobility will affect the change of passenger transport energy demand in Chengdu city mainly.(3) In terms of single-center and multi-center, the impacts of urban spatial structure on resident trips and transport energy consumption are studied. Through a simple numerical example, the fact is that multi-central city is superior to single-center city in transport energy saving. Besides, the researches on complex land use and "compact city" show that the intensive development of urban land could help reduce transport energy consumption. Be based upon these concepts, the optimization model of urban land use is constructed. In the model, the objective function is to minimize the total travel time among communities, and the main restrictive condition is urban transport energy consumption. The result of the model is the proportion of various land functions under the guidance of mixed urban land use and reasonable transport energy consumption.(4) Sustainable transportation develpment, green transport system, low-carbon transport system and other related concepts are discussed. On the basis of this, transport energy consumption is introduced into urban traffic planning for creating the minimum energy consumption model of urban trasport system. Considering the capacity constraint of urban road network, the aim of this model is to solve the problem on the appropriate scale of conventional buses and cars. In addition, to encourage more residents travel by public transportation, the optimization model of urban traffic structure is established under the restrictive conditions of transport energy consumption, network resources, environment capacity and other constraints. This model is applied to analyze the reasonable urban traffic structure of Chongqing city in 2020.(5) In view of the characteristics, the classification and the development process of traffic policy, the dynamic modeling method is applied to evaluate urban transport energy saving policies. Firstly, the model forecasts transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions of Shanghai city in 2020. The forecasting results are set up as the base scenario, and the other three scenarios are got by three different groups of energy saving policies. After the scenarios are analyzed and compared, the results show that single energy saving policy will be difficult to achieve energy saving and emissions-reduction targets, and the different combined polices can be help to meet goals.This paper offers new ideas and methods for studing sustainable urban transport development under the energy constraints. In conclusion, to achieve the goal of green urban transport system, urban public transport should only be chosen as the leading traffic mode, the strategy of public transport first and the complex land use should be implemented in China. Only urban energy-saving traffic system could reduce the consumption of fuels and meet the demands of sustainable urban transport development.更多还原