【作者】 肖东升；

【导师】 黄丁发；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 地图制图学与地理信息工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 目前对地震灾害情景的评估,世界上尚无成熟的评估指标体系。为了能对人员进行快速的救援,必须建立与之相适应的地震灾害情景评估体系。在众多地震灾害情景(?)震灾害压埋人员情景是压埋人员的分布、伤亡等相关状况,是震后应急救援过程急需的重要信息。所以对地震灾害压埋人员情景分析与评估是应急救援和急需解(?)地震灾害压埋人员情景,是一个不确定的复杂动态情景,包括人员的实时动态分布.人员在室内的状态、建筑倒塌状况、人员被压埋情况和压埋人员的实时伤亡状态。本文旨在建立地震灾害压埋人员情景评估指标体系,具体研究内容和相关结论如下：采用情景分析的方法,研究了地震灾害情景中压埋人员的相关情景：地震压埋人员的环境情景和地震时人员自身情况(包括地震瞬间人的感知,地震瞬间人的意识、行为,居民个体差异等)。基于压埋人员相关情景的分析,构建了地震压埋人员情景评估指标体系的框架,实现了运用该框架对地震灾害压埋人员的情景的分析和评估。鉴于人员的动态分布是应急救援的前提,本文提出了栅格和矢量相融合的数据结构,由此对细胞自动机的五个要素分别进行了扩展,完成了扩展细胞自动机的建立方法,并在此基础上采用了“人数概率和”实现了人员在建筑空间中由无序向有序的转变。以在室率概念为基础,采用Kriging插值法构建了我国部分区域的在室率区划,实现了在室率在空间上连续性和覆盖的目标。建筑物倒塌率作为建筑物破坏评估指标,是地震压埋人员评估的基础和前提。本文深入地研究了两地震事件在地震强度、地震波的传播媒介和建筑结构三类相似因素,在此基础上采用vague集理论得出了两地震事件的相似度,实现了从众多的历史事件中选出最相似的历史地震事件,并用其倒塌率来评估现在地震中建筑物倒塌率的目标。研究结果表明：(1)评估倒塌率主要由相似度和历史倒塌率共同决定。(2)由于两地震事件相似的轮换对称性,评估的倒塌率值具有区间性。(3)根据假设检验得出相似度下界与误差绝对值的反比例关系曲线,完成了用相似度下界对评估的倒塌率进行评估质量控制。在造成压埋的众多因素中,本文仅考虑了在室率和倒塌率两关键因素,并假设两者对地震压埋率的影响是相互独立的,由此建立了基于全概率的地震压埋率模型。在汶川地震的研究过程中,针对特大地震,发展了基于自相似的倒塌率计算方法,解决了因缺少相似因素而对倒塌率评估的难题,较大地提高了压埋率评估的效率。解决了压埋人员伤亡情景发生、发展过程的评估,建立了伤亡状态评估模型。主要研究成果：(1)以结构震害指数为参考标准,建立了初始伤亡指数的区间估计。(2)假设体质与年龄成正态分布,由此建立了以年龄为基础的体质综合指数区间估计。(3)在没有参考依据的条件下,用正态分布对人员囤陷环境进行了无偏估计。运用Visual Studio 2005、ArcGIS Engine Developer Kit For Microsoft.NET Framework 9.2和ArcGIS Engine Runtime9.2开发环境,参照《地震应急基础数据库数据约定》,对地震压埋人员的分析和评估系统所需要的空间数据和属性数据进行了编制,并完成了GIS和CA(Cellar Automaton)的平台融合,初步实现具有人员动态分布、地震压埋人员分布、在室率、倒塌率、压埋率和压埋人员伤亡状态等评估功能的地震压埋人员评估系统设计。更多还原

【Abstract】 Now, it is no mature that evaluation index system is used for scenarioes of seismic disaster in the world. It must be established disaster assessment system of seismic scenarioes to rescue personnel, quickly, in many seismic scenarioes, the buried personnel scenarioes include buried personnel distribution and casualties, etc, which are imperative important information in emergency rescue after earthquake. So, analysis and evaluation of seismic buried personnel scenarioes is primary task and issue to solve quickly.Seismic scenarios of buried personnel is a uncertain, dynamic and complex scenario system including buried personnel dynamic distribution, indoor state, collapsing situation of the building and their casualties status. The thesis aims to establish the assessment index system on the buried personnel scenarioes. The specific researches and related conclusions are as follows:At seismic time, study the buried personnel scenarioes by scenario analysis method, which describes and analyses burying seismic environment and personnel factors, the latter includes perception, awareness, behavior, individual differences, etc. Put up the basic framework of the evaluation index system of personnel buried scenario, which can evaluate the seismic scenarioes of buried personnel.Because personnel distribution is the premise of emergency, the text puts forward syncretizing data organization based on grid and vector, expands cellular automata from 5 parts, then solves problem to personnel activity from disorder of the individual to the orderly of personnel with "probability and".On basis of in-building ratio concept, set up in-building ratio regionalization by the Kriging interpolation sections in China, which makes in-building ratio continuous and all covered in space.The collapsing ratio as building damage indicators is the prerequisite and basis for buried personnel evaluation, the papers deeply studies that seismic intensity,mass media and building structure, which are looked as the similar element in two seismic affair, according to those, we can computer similarity between two seismic affair, which makes evaluation of collapsing-ratio with the most similar historic seismic affair.The conclusions is following:Firstly, the current evaluated collapsing ratio depends on the similarity and historic collapsing ratio. Secondly, the evaluation value of collapsing ratio is a interval because of the similar symmetry.Thirdly, according to hypothesis testing, relationship between the lower value of the similarity and the evaluation error realized quality control of evaluation by the lower value of the similarityIn most of buried personnel elements, in-building and collapsing ratio are thought about, which are mutually independent on affecting buried ratio.On those basis, the buried ratio model is set up.In the study course of Wenchuan earthquake, developed on the collapsing ratio calculation method for large earthquakes based on self-similar, which solve to evaluate difficulty of collapsing ratio for short of similar elements, raise evaluation efficiency of buried ratio.To solve development process of casualties scenarioes, the paper sets up the casualty index model, the specific conclusions is follows:Firstly, with the reference of the structural damage index, set up the casualty index Interval. Secondly, supposed the normal distribution between age and body mass, build up the function between the body mass index and age-type. Thirdly, without the reference, get unbiased estimates of seismic store environment with normal distribution.Use the Visual Studio 2005, ArcGIS Engine Developer Kit For Microsoft.NET Framework 9.2 and ArcGIS Engine Runtime9.2, refer to data conventions of seismic emergency basic database, plait spatial data and attribute data that analysis and evaluation systems of seismic buried personnel scenarioes need, finish the integration of GIS and CA. Design evaluation about system seismic scenarioes of buried personnel, whose functions include personnel dynamic distribute simulation, in-building ratio inquiry, collapsing ratio query and buried ratio inquiry, evaluating casualties of buried personnel, etc.更多还原