【作者】 张光远；

【导师】 蒋葛夫；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 高速铁路行车安全是多因素交互作用的、动态的、实时的系统,系统的时间与空间的实时变换,使人(动车组机车司机、列车调度员、车站值班员)、高速列车、线路三个基本的、简单的、静态的构成要素,变成复杂的、动态的、复合型系统,系统中的任何一个因素已不是原有意义的因素,随着时间与空间的扩展,动态行车效应的失调,使其系统的危险性放大,可操作性变弱,匹配性松弛。此时,任何因素相互作用的失衡都会导致高速铁路行车事故,因此对高速铁路行车事故发生的机理、行车相关作业人员安全可靠性分析、行车设备安全性分析,安全保障体系构建及系统安全性评价等问题进行系统化研究具有极其重要的理论价值与现实意义,本论文研究要点可涵盖为以下4点。(1)在对高速铁路行车事故原因予以分析的基础上,基于高速铁路系统行车相关人员整体作业能力与系统任务需求能力耦合匹配分析,对高速铁路行车事故的发生过程产生机理进行分析,提出了多种危险模式并构建了高速铁路行车事故发生机理模型；在此基础上对高速铁路行车安全事故扩散机理予以了分析。(2)对高速铁路行车系统中调度员、车站值班员、司机可靠性分别予以分析与建模。首先在采用结构解释模型分析调度员、车站值班员可靠性影响因素基础上,采用贝叶斯网络模型分别构建调度员、车站值班员可靠性模型；然后在分析司机作业模式的基础上,构建了司机作业可靠性模型。最后在建立行车系统人因综合评估体系的基础上给出了量化评估方法。(3)在对高速铁路列控系统原理予以分析,以及对车站追踪安全间隔距离与间隔时间的确定方法予以讨论的基础上,建立了列控系统可靠性模型,并对高速铁路列控系统运行故障模式,列控系统可靠性分配等问题予以研究。(4)对高速铁路行车安全保障体系及行车安全保障信息系统构建予以了宏观设计。在此基础上结合高速铁路系统实际,提出了高速铁路行车安全评价指标体系,并给出了系统评价算法。更多还原

【Abstract】 High-speed railway operation safety is a dynamic, real-time and multi-factor interactive system. The real-time transformation of time and space of the system forms a complicated, dynamic and compound system by combining three simple, basic and static elements together, i.e. people (including train-set locomotive driver, train dispatcher and the person on duty at stations), high-speed train and high-speed line. Any element in the system is not the original one. As the extension of time and space, the imbalance of dynamic operation effect increases the danger of the system, weakens its operability and relaxes its matching ability. In this case, the unbalance of interactions between any two elements will cause high-speed railway operation accidents. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to carry out systematic research on problems, like the mechanism of high-speed railway operation accidents, the analysis on the safety reliability of railway ride workers and on the safety of train operation equipments, as well as evaluation on the construction of safety guarantee system and system safety. This dissertation mainly discusses the following four aspects:First, this paper analyzes the cause of high-speed railway operation accidents as well as the coupling and matching between overall operating ability of railway ride workers in the high-speed railway system and system task demand ability, then puts forward several types of danger models, constructs the occurrence mechanism model of high-speed railway operation accidents. On this basis, it also analyzes the diffusion mechanism of high-speed railway operation safety accidents.Second, the article respectively analyzes and models the reliability of dispatchers, people on duty at stations and drivers in the high-speed railway operation system. First of all, analyze the factors which influence the reliability of dispatchers and people on duty at stations by using structure interpretation model, and respectively establish the reliability models of dispatchers and people on duty at stations by using bayesian network model, then establish the reliability models of driver’s operation on the basis of analyzing the operation model of the driver, and finally provide a quantitative estimation method based on establishing human factor comprehensive valuation system on driving system.Third, this paper analyzes the principle of train control system in high-speed railway and discusses the determination method on tracking the safe separation distance and time interval at the station. It further establishes the reliability model of the train control system, and carries out research on modeling of problems like the operation fault mode analysis of the train control system in high-speed railway and reliability allocation of the train control system and so on.Fourth, this article makes a macroscopic design on the establishment of operation safety guarantee system and operation safety support information system in high-speed railway. Based on the reality of high-speed system, it puts forward the evaluation index system of operation safety in high-speed railway and provides the system evaluation algorithm.更多还原