【作者】 周勇；

【导师】 彭其渊；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 铁路调度指挥工作与运营效益之间存在着紧密关系。从经济学的角度来讲,对运输效益的追求可以说是铁路局作为运输企业的最终目的。从某种角度分析,在给定的运输资源、技术条件的前提下,铁路运输生产活动的水平事实上是由调度决策的水平决定的,调度决策的水平和质量将直接影响铁路部门的运营效益。因此,建立基于效益机制的调度决策评价体系,准确判断和评价调度决策质量和水平,对于铁路运输组织工作具有重要作用。基于此,论文将调度决策综合评价问题作为研究对象,以系统的观点,结合调度指挥实际工作,采用定性分析与定量结合的方法以及数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis,简称DEA)等手段,对该问题所涉及的调度决策的协调性、有效性、稳定性,以及预警功能等方面进行了全面的、深入的分析和研究。论文的主要研究工作包括：(1)从铁路调度工作的特点和内涵出发,运用系统科学的观点,整体考虑铁路运输调度决策行为,描述了铁路局各调度工种之间的协调关系；同时,阐明了调度指挥工作与运营效益之间的紧密关系,提出了调度决策评价的关键内容以及评价指标体系的基本结构。(2)针对调度货物运输日班计划的有效性评价问题,通过对主成分分析法、Bayes法、模糊聚类分析、DEA的各自特点与适用范围进行对比分析后,选取了DEA方法进行定量综合评价。该方法对评价时涉及的权重问题可通过求解参考集的一个分式规划问题来确定,从而可有效地解决人工赋权造成的评价结果偏差问题。同时,讨论了DEA以及C2R模型,论述了决策单元有效性与多目标规划问题中Pareto有效解与DEA有效性的等价关系。最后,以某独立核算运营区段实绩以及调度货运日计划实作,以运营收入为定量输出指标,构建了基于EDA的决策单元定量部分的相对有效性评价方法。对于调度决策与其他工作的协调一致性、机车车辆运用、施工天窗的配合及有效实施等方面不易量化,则根据具体情况、结合实际工作经验进行定性分析判断。并以一个评价期内的实际运输统计数据,给出了算例。(3)针对列车运行调整的有效性评价问题,由于不同类列车运行质量的评价含有一定偏好信息,在讨论含有偏好信息的DEA评价模型的基础上,给出了各种列车运行的偏好序,构建了含有偏好信息的DEA评价模型。(4)综合以上两方面评价的内容和方法,采用定性与定量结合方法,在给定一定参考集的基础上,依据评价指标,从作业情况、作业实施、作业计划、资源配置、与其他工种调度决策的协调性这5个方面,给出了某一时期内的调度决策优劣、有效性的综合评价方法。(5)通过对调度决策输入因素可变化范围内的灵敏度分析,讨论了调度决策单元的稳定性。研究得出,可以通过构造一个球面,当输入因素的变化在该球面内时,即可保证决策单元的有效性不变。(6)针对在现实中超过一定限度的调度不当行为的产生,论文设计了综合评价体系中的预警系统。该系统可以对不满足有效性的调度决策,能够给决策者提供预警以及决策引导。论文通过以上的研究工作以及相关内容的组合,试图构建包括指标体系、定量评价、定性评价、灵敏度分析、预警系统等方面内容的铁路局调度综合评价理论体系。并期望能以此来评价和提高实际工作中的调度决策质量,同时能够在易于发生调度不当时作出提前判断和预警提示,以便做出防范及修正措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 There is close relation between railway dispatching and operation benefit. From economic point, the pursuit to the efficiency of rail transport is the ultimate goal for an enterprise. The operation benefit is influenced by dispatch decision on the condition of limited transportation resource. Comprehensive estimate system based on benefit mechanism must be established in order to judge level of dispatch accurately. It is very important to determine accurately and to evaluate the quality and level of scheduling decisions for the railway transportation organization.Railway administration scheduling for comprehensive evaluation is a way of object of study. From system point of view, this issue involving the coordination of scheduling decisions, effectiveness, stability and early warning functions is studied in depth by resorts such as qualitative analysis, quantitative methods and data envelopment analysis (DEA).Major reacher works:(1) According to the characteristic and intension of railway administration dispatch, coordinative relation between disparate sorts of dispatch is analysed entirety in view of system science. The close relationship between dispatch and operational effectiveness is illustrated. Key elements of scheduling evaluation and the basic structure of evaluation index system are proposed.(2) For the validity estimate of daily plan of the carriage of the dispatch goods, comparative analysis of characteristics and the scope of application is done. DEA is chosen to conducte a comprehensive and quantitative estimate. The estimate of the weight problem can be solved by solving a fractional programming problem of reference set in this method. And it can effectively solve the deviation problem of artificial empowerment estimate. Meanwhile, DEA as well as the C2R model are discussed in the method. The equivalence relation of the effectiveness of decision making units and Pareto efficient solution and DEA Validity in Multi-objective programming problem are also studied in the method. The relative effectiveness estimate method is constructed on the base of quantitative part of the EDA’s decision-making units. It takes operating income as the quantitative output index. It also considers dispatching operation achievements in a separate accounting section and dispatch freight daily program implementation. It is not easy to quantify dispatch decision and some aspects such as coherence of other work, locomotives and rolling stock, the construction skylights co-ordination and effective implementation. Depending on the specific conditions and combing the practical work experience, qualitative analysis judgment is used. An example considering of the actual transport statistics in an estimate period is given.(3) For train operation adjustment of the effectiveness of the estimate, a certain preference information is contained in the operation estimate of the quality of different types train. The preference order of a variety of train operations is given and the DEA estimate model containing the preference information is constructed on the base of the DEA estimate model.(4) Based on the above estimate of both content and method, combination of qualitative and quantitative methods is adopted. A comprehensive estimate methods about the dispatch decision-making advantages and disadvantages and the effectiveness in a certain period is given on the base of a given reference set and estimate index. The estimate methods contain five aspects from the operational situation, operation implementation, operational plans, resource allocation to dispatch decisions with other types of coordination.(5) The stability of dispatch decision-making units is discussed by sensitivity analysis within the scope of range in dispatch input factors. Emerging from the study, a sphere can be constructed. It can ensure that the validity of the decision-making unit can be unchanged when the input factors change in the sphere.(6) Misconducts beyond a certain limit exist in real life. For these misconducts, warning systems in comprehensive estimate system are designed in this thesis. The system can provide decision makers with early warning and decision-making guide with regard to dispatch decisions which can not meet the standard of the effectiveness.Railway administration scheduling for comprehensive evaluation theory system is constructed which involves index system, quantitative evaluation, qualitative evaluation, sensitivity analysis and early warning systems through all above research work. It is looked forward to evaluate and improve the practical work in the scheduling decision-making quality. Early judgments warnings can be given by this system in order to take preventive and corrective measures.更多还原