【作者】 陈少林；

【导师】 权锡鉴；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 水资源是西部经济社会可持续发展的重要制约因素,加快水利建设是实施西部大开发的基础。水土资源组合极端不均衡是西部地区可持续发展中最突出的矛盾。西部水资源总量占全国45.9%,而83%集中在西南部。西北地区干旱少雨,水资源总量仅占全国总量的8%,资源型缺水问题突出。水利是支撑西部大开发战略实施、统筹区域发展战略全局的重要基础。水利作为国民经济的基础设施和基础产业,是整个国民经济的命脉,尤其是对于水资源未能充分利用、水利建设落后的西部地区,水利建设状况直接关系到西部区域经济社会的健康发展,良好的水利发展是西部大开发战略顺利实施的重要保障。本论文遵循现代经济学研究范式,坚持历史与逻辑相统一、规范与实证相结合、定性与定量相匹配的基本模式,综合运用新古典经济学、区域经济学、发展经济学、资源经济学、农业政策学和计量经济学等分析工具,从系统阐述水利发展在西部大开发中的作用与地位入手,全面总结西部大开发十年来水利发展进程与现状,就我国东中西部地区水利发展进行区域比较与评价,运用数理模型实证预测今后十年西部大开发的水利需求,包括工业和农业的用水需求估算,结合西南大旱旱情以案例形式对高海拔区域水利欠账问题进行专题研究,最后给出今后十年我国西部大开发水利发展战略选择与政策建议。本论文研究的核心内容有以下几点:第一,对国外水利发展进行了系统的比较和分析,提出了国外水利发展政策对我国西部大开发的有益借鉴和启示。美国、日本、以色列和印度的水利发展给本文如下启示:水利建设和发展以实现灌溉、防洪、抗旱以及饮用水投资均衡发展为根本立足点,以多元化水利筹资方式为战略着眼点,以加大水利科技投入为重要着力点,以充分利用水权与水价的杠杆调节作用为关键切入点。这些启示的获得,有助于破解制约我国水利发展的体制机制障碍,为我国西部大开发战略中水利政策的制定提供指导性的建议,进而为实现我国水利良性发展和水资源可持续利用提供强大动力和政策保障。第二,第一次系统预测了未来十年西部大开发的水利需求。本文从西部水资源利用效率的变动情况入手,利用Malmquist(曼奎斯特指数)方法分析西部各省(区、市)目前在水资源利用效率的具体变动情况,再利用灰色系统关联来分别分析影响工业和农业用水量的主要因素,最后利用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,预测今后十年西部大开发对水资源的需求情况。受制于直接测算水利需求在数据获取和技术分析方面均有一定难度,目前学术界对我国西部大开发的水利需求预测几无涉猎。本文采用上述计量方法对西部大开发的水利需求进行估算是一次新的尝试。第三,以案例分析为突破口,系统全面的阐释了2010年西南大旱的成因及其教训。本文研究发现,西南大旱的发生,自然气象因素固然是其直接原因,但主观人为因素不可忽视。本次旱灾造成的巨大损失充分暴露出我国高海拔区域水利发展存在的严重问题——水资源丰富但却未能充分利用,即水利欠账太多。原本水资源储量丰富的云南寻甸县发生严重旱情的事实表明,在注重经济发展的同时必须关注水生态保护和加强水利基础设施建设。各地应根据区域社会经济环境的特点,立足经济社会发展的要求,顺应人民群众的期望,完善抗旱非工程措施,强化生态环境保护,从根本上增强抗御干旱灾害的能力,为经济社会又好又快发展提供坚实可靠的水利支撑和保障。第四,提出了未来十年新一轮西部大开发的水利发展战略。今后十年西部大开发水利发展总体战略应该是可持续发展战略,即西部水利事业应把以保护改善生态环境为根本点,以改善西部地区人民生活水平、生产条件为出发点,加强水利基础设施建设,大力发展节水技术,合理开发利用和保护水资源,以水资源的可持续利用促进西部经济社会的可持续发展。在这一总体战略的指导下,本文进一步提出了生态保护战略、技术创新战略、人才建设战略和西电东送战略等具体战略措施,针对西北和西南地区不同的水利条件和发展取向分别给出了可操作性强的实施建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resource is the important restraining factor of western social and economic sustainable development, and accelerating the water conservancy construction is the base of western development. The extreme imbalance of water and land resource combination is the most prominent contradiction in the process of western development. Western total water resource amounts to 45.9% of the whole nation, but 83% of it concentrate in the southwest. But the northwest is lack of rain, and the total water resource only amounts to 8% of the whole country, and the resource type water shortage problem is serious.Water conservancy is the important foundation of supporting the implement of western development strategy and planning regional development as a whole. As the base installation and industry, water conservancy is the lifeline of national economy. Especially for the western where water conservancy construction is backward, the water conservancy condition refers to the healthy social and economic development directly, and the good development of water conservancy is the key guarantee of smoothly implement of western development strategy.This paper follows modern economics research paradigm strictly, insists the basic mode that history and logic is unified, norms and empirical is combination, and qualitative and quantitative is matched, applies neoclassical economics, regional economics, development economics, resource economics, agriculture policy, and econometrics synthetically, starts with expounding the role and status of water conservancy developing in the process of western development, and comprehensively sums up the process and present situation since the western development. This paper also appraises and compares the water conservancy development of eastern, middle and western districts, applies mathematical models to forecast the water conservancy demand which includes the estimate of industry and agriculture water demand in the next decade, does the special topic study on the following problems of water conservancy in the high altitude area combined with the analysis of southwest drought, and finally proposes the strategy choice and policy suggestions about the water conservancy development in west development in the next decade.The main innovation points of this paper includes the following aspects:Firstly, this paper compares and analyses foreign water conservancy development systematically, and puts forwards reference and enlightenment to the west development. The water conservancy development of the USA, Japan, Israel and India gives the following enlightenment: Water conservancy construction and development regreds realizing the balance development of drought, flood control, irrigation and water investment as the fundamental standpoint and diversifying for fund-raising means as the strategic point of water conservancy, investment in science and technology as an important points, to make full use of water right and adjustment role water as key point lever. These revelations which are helpful to break the system obstacles that restrict the development of water conservancy provide the guiding suggestions for water conservancy policy making in west development, and then provide a powerful driving force and policy guarantee for the water conservancy benign development and the sustainable utilization of water resources.Secondly, this paper does the first system prediction of the water conservancy demand of west development in the following decade. Starting with the changes of the western water use efficiency, this paper analyses water use efficiency in the special changes in western provinces using the Malmquist method, then analyses the main factors that affect water use in industry and agriculture respectively by using the grey system linked, and at last predicts the water demand in west development in the next decade using the grey forecasting GM(1,1) model. Subject to calculate water demand directly in data acquisition and technical analysis that has certain difficulty, current academic circles have did little research on water demand forecasting of west development. It is a new attempt to estimate water conservancy demand of west development adopting the measurement method.Thirdly, the case analysis as a breakthrough, this paper explains the 2010 southwest drought cause and lessons systematically and comprehensively. The studies find that natural meteorological factors are indeed the direct cause of southwest drought, but subjective human factors should not be ignored. The huge loss caused by the drought fully exposed the serious problems of water conservancy development in high altitude area——water resource is rich but failed to make full use of water conservancy, namely greatly too much. The fact that Xundian in Yunnan which is rich in water resource produces serious drought shows that when people focuses on economic development they must pay close attention to the water ecological protection and strengthening water infrastructure. According to regional social and economic characteristics, all districts should conform to the people’s expectations, perfect drought-resistant non-structual measures, strengthen the ecological environment protection, enhance the ability of drought disasters rupture fundamentally, and provide solid and reliable water conservancy support and assurance for the sound and rapid eco-social development.Fourthly, this paper puts forwards the water conservancy development strategy in the future 10 years new round western development. The next decade of water conservancy development of western development overall strategy should be a sustainable development strategy, namely the western water conservancy undertakings should be based on protecting and improving the ecological environment, start with improving the people’s living standards and production conditions, strengthen the construction of water conservancy infrastructure, vigorously develop water-saving technology, reasonably exploit and protect water resources and promote the sustainable eco-social development by the sustainable use of water resources. Under the guidance of the general strategy, this paper puts forwards the ecological protection strategy, technology innovation strategy, talents construction strategy and power transmission from west to east strategy, and gives respectively feasible implementing suggestions according to the northwest and southwest water conditions and different development orientations.更多还原