【作者】 岳宏；

【导师】 张越杰；

【作者基本信息】 吉林农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 肉牛产业是中国畜牧业的重要组成部分,自20世纪80年代以来,中国肉牛生产迅速发展,目前已经跃居世界第三位,肉牛生产可以增加农民收入,提高节粮型畜种比重、保证国家粮食安全,还可以调整居民膳食结构,改善人民生活,随着经济社会的快速发展,人民生活水平的提高,肉牛产业逐渐成为我国畜牧业中极为重要的产业之一。与其他畜牧产业相比,肉牛具有自己独特的生物学规律,其生产周期长,产业链条长,覆盖面大,资金回报率不高等特点,导致我国肉牛产业的供需矛盾日益凸显,我国肉牛产业可持续发展受到一定程度的制约。2006年以来,我国肉牛存栏数量逐年下降,基础母牛数量急剧下滑,肉牛产业的发展已经受到牛源紧缺的制约。同时,牛肉与其他肉类,牛肉与其他农产品之间的供求关系日益复杂。因而,在新时期,我国肉牛产业如何与其它肉类产业以及其他食品产业协调、可持续发展的问题成为我国政府和相关研究者面临的重要课题。本文正是基于这个角度,结合中国肉牛产业发展现状,通过深入的调查与研究,分析我国肉牛产业的发展概况与供需预测分析,对我国肉牛产业可持续发展的经济、资源、环境、社会、机遇等因素进行了分析,并利用相关统计数据和调研数据,运用主成份分析法等计量经济学手段,构建可持续发展评价指标体系,对我国目前肉牛可持续发展进行综合评价,研究我国牛肉在此背景下对肉牛养殖业可持续发展的要求,提出我国未来20年或30年肉牛养殖可持续的发展模式。本文共分为八章,主要研究内容及相关结论如下：第一章、第二章为本文的导论、概念界定和理论基础部分。这两章对本文的研究意义、内容、方法和技术路线等进行了阐述,对国内外相关研究进行评述,界定论文中涉及的基本概念和研究范围,并对本文所依据的理论基础进行系统阐述。第三章对中国肉牛产业的发展概况进行了阐述,包括中国肉牛产业发展的重要意义,近年来所取得的成果,基本特点,以及目前我国肉牛产业存在的问题,针对上述问题,分析其原因主要是养牛比较效益低,缺乏政策支持,市场信息不对称导致的质量安全牛肉消费问题。第四章从我国牛肉的供给与需求入手,针对目前统计数据中人均占有量和消费量之间的差异,利用统计数据,分别用独立混合横截面模型和综列数据模型对我国31个省(市、区)进行了消费预测,同时采用了Quadratic曲线模型,对全国以及四个主产区的牛肉供给量进行时间趋势预测。通过预测表明,我国人均牛肉消费需求与收入呈正相关,同时我国牛肉供不应求,特别是高档牛肉。第五章是对我国肉牛产业可持续发展的要素进行了分析,包括经济、资源、环境、科技、机遇和制度等因素,经过分析研究,表明我国肉牛产业受到供需关系、生态环境、水电能源、科技投入、政策支持等因素的制约,同时随着经济的发展和集约化程度的提高,我国肉牛产业可持续发展还将受到土地等因素的制约,而劳动力不会制约我国肉牛产业的可持续发展。为后面章节对评价指标的选取和可持续发展道路选择提高分析依据。第六章利用主成份分析法,构建可持续发展评价指标体系,根据我国肉牛产业发展现状和肉牛产业可持续发展要素及资源利用情况,将肉牛产业可持续发展体系划分为三个相对独立又相互联系的子系统：经济子系统、社会子系统、生态环境子系统。运用SPSS16.0统计软件,对其进行主成份分析,深入研究了我国肉牛产业从1999-2008年可持续发展状况及其变动趋势。第七章阐述了中国肉牛产业可持续发展道路和模式选择问题。从肉牛产业可持续发展指导思想和战略原则作为着眼点,深入分析肉牛产业可持续发展的本质、内涵,以及指导思想与战略原则,并根据我国基本国情,借鉴并参考国外肉牛产业可持续发展的成功经验,提出我国肉牛产业应该走“高产、优质、高效、生态、安全的可持续发展”道路。第八章为本文的结论及建议部分。在对论文的研究结果进行总结的基础上,提出中国肉牛产业链可持续发展的建议,为肉牛产业健康稳定可持续发展及政府相关部门决策的制定提供参考。从研究内容来看,本文对肉牛产业可持续发展各要素及其制约因素进行系统地研究是本文的创新所在,运用主成份分析法对肉牛产业可持续发展进行计量分析与综合评价,也是一个新的研究内容。从研究视角来看,单独针对某一产业进行可持续发展研究相对较少,本文正是基于这一视角,对肉牛产业进行了研究。从实践意义上看,本文深入分析我国肉牛产业可持续发展所受的制约与问题,并提出切实有效的措施为肉牛产业相关政策的拟定提供参考,提高产业竞争力,创造了丰富的生态和社会效益。同时,研究肉牛产业的可持续发展,对于保证牛肉的持续供给、提高人民生活水平、保护环境和生态,创造两型社会,构建农牧结合生态大农业,推进社会主义新农村建设具有十分重要的现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Cattle industry is the important part of animal husbandry. Since the 1980s, Chinese cattle industry has developed rapidly and ranks the third in the world at present. The cattle industry can increase farmers’income, raise the percent of sire saving grain, guarantee the national grain safety and improve people’s life. With the rapid development of the economic society and the improvement of people’s life, cattle industry has become one of the key industries in China’s animal husbandry. Compared with other animal industry, cattle has its own unique biology regularity, its production cycle and industry chain are long, the coverage is extensive and the return on investment capital is low, which have caused the contradiction between the supply and demand of cattle industry, and restricted the sustainable development of the industry. Since the year of 2006, the amount of livestock has decreased year by year, and the basic quantity of cows has diminished dramatically. The cattle industry is restricted by the shortage of cattle resource. As a result, in the new period, the coordination of China’s cattle industry with other meat industry, and the sustainable development are the important subjects which our government and the relative researchers have to confront with.Based on this point, the dissertation analyzes the general developing situation and the prediction of the supply and demand of Chinese cattle industry, combining with the present situation and through intensive survey and research. The author also analyzes the factors of economy, resource, environment, society and opportunities which will affect the sustainable development of Chinese cattle industry, and establishes the evaluation index system of sustainable development, with the help of concerning statistical data and research data, and making use of componential analysis—a kind of econometrics instrument. With the index system, the author carries out a comprehensive evaluation on the sustainable development of our cattle industry, study the requirements of sustainable development of the cattle raising industry, and present the sustainable development model of Chinese cattle raising in the coming 20 to 30 years.The dissertation includes 8 chapters, the main contents and conclusions are as follows:Chapter one and chapter two, serving as the induction to, the concept definition and the theoretical background of the dissertation, expound the the significance of subject selection, content and methods of the research and its technical route. They observe the relative domestic and international researches, define the basic concepts and research scope involved in the dissertation, and formulates the theoretical basis on which the dissertation is developed.Chapter three discusses the general development of cattle industry in China, including the significance of the development of cattle industry, the achievement made in recent years, the basic features and the problems existing in the present cattle industry. In view of the above problems, it analyzes the reasons, such as the low comparative benefit of cattle raising, lacking policy support, the quality safety of beef consumption caused by the asymmetry of market information.Beginning with the supply and demand of Chinese beef, in view of the difference of the ownership and consumption amount per capita, and using the statistical data, chapter four predicts the consumption of our 31 provinces with the help of independent and mixed cross-sectional model respectively. Using the Quadratic curve model, it also predicts the timing tendency of the beef supply in the four main beef producing districts and all over the country. The prediction shows the positive correlation between the beef consumption amount and people’s income, and that the beef is in short supply in our country, especially the upmarket beef.Chapter five analyzes the factors affecting the sustainable development of our cattle industry, including the factors the economy, resource, environment, science and technology, opportunities and the institution. Through the analysis, it shows that the cattle industry is restricted by the supply-demand relationship, biological environment, the hydro and electric energy, the input of scientific technology and the policy support, etc. Meanwhile, with the economic development and the improvement of intensification, the sustainable development of our cattle industry will be restricted by the land factor. The labor factor will not restrict its development. Chapter five supplies analysis basis for the following chapters when selecting evaluation index and the sustainable development route.Chapter 6 establishes the evaluation system using componential analysis. According to the present situation, the factors of sustainable development, and the situation of resource exploitation, it divides the sustainable development system of cattle industry into three comparatively independent and inter-related subsidiary systems:economic system, social system and ecological-environment system. Using the SPSS 16.0 statistical software, it analyzes the main elements, deeply study the sustainable development situation from the year of 1999 to 2008, and the movement tendency.Chapter seven elaborates the selection of the route and pattern of the sustainable development of Chinese cattle industry. Focusing on the guiding ideology and the strategic principal of the sustainable development of cattle industry, it deeply analyzes the nature, intention, the guiding ideology and the strategic principal of the sustainable development of cattle industry. According to the basic national condition, with reference to the successful experience of the sustainable development of the cattle industry at home and abroad, it puts forward for Chinese cattle industry the biological, safe and sustainable developing route with high production, optimum quality, high efficiency.Chapter eight provides advice and suggestion. On the basis of concluding the research results of the thesis, the author presents suggestion for the sustainable, stable and healthy development of Chinese cattle industry, which supplies reference for relative government departments to make decisions.In view of the contents studied, the innovations are that the thesis systemically analyzes various factors of the sustainable development of cattle industry, and statistically analyzes and comprehensively evaluates the sustainable development of cattle industry with the method of componential analysis. Judging by the perspective of the research, the existing literature has rarely reported any analysis of the sustainable development of single industry, thus, the thesis studies the cattle industry. Judging by the practical significance of the research, the thesis deeply analyzes the restrictions and problems of the sustainable development of the cattle industry, and puts forward practical and effective measures, supplies reference for the planning and stipulation of relative policies, to promote the industry competitive capacity, and to create abundant biological and social benefits. Meanwhile, the research of the sustainable development of the cattle industry has important significance to ensure the sustainable beef supply, to improve people’s livelihood, to protect the environment and the ecology, to create two-oriented society, to establish large agriculture combining agriculture and husbandry, and to promote the new socialist rural establishment.更多还原