【作者】 徐兴华；

【导师】 尚岳全；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 防灾减灾工程及防护工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 随着国民经济发展水平的不断提高,在大规模的道路交通建设浪潮中,山地丘陵区由于高等级公路建设而致边坡地质灾害问题愈来愈突出,尤以滑坡为主要表现形式,给工程建设、交通运输和人民生命财产带来极大危害和重大损失。因此,为解决高等级公路边(滑)坡灾害问题,并消除其不利影响,则展开综合防灾评判决策研究,形成系统的灾害防治及评判决策技术与方法,具有重要的研究意义与现实意义。本文通过详细调查分析、安全监控量测、系统开发应用、理论基础研究、决策模型构建、确定力学计算等方法,深入系统地开展边坡信息综合管理与安全评判决策研究,进行边坡信息综合管理与评判决策支持系统开发与应用,展开边坡信息管理分析与WebGIS平台查询索求,研究并开发滑坡综合评判决策系统,确立滑坡稳定评判与治理决策技术方法,进行滑坡治理稳定状态与安全效果评价研究,为综合防灾决策和科学评价提供理论基础和技术支持。通过研究,本文解决的主要内容和取得的创新成果具体如下：(1)结合边坡信息综合管理与防灾评判决策研究需求,进行边坡信息综合管理与评判决策支持系统开发研究,实现信息管理与处理分析、资源索求与查询、综合防灾评判决策研究,为灾害评价、防治决策、技术支持和资源索求提供可行的技术平台。(2)结合边坡信息管理分析与查询索求系统,展开边坡信息管理分析与WebGIS平台查询索求,并对浙江省公路沿线边坡进行具体工程实践应用,综合表明系统具有较高的推广应用价值,完全能够满足实践需求。(3)为实现滑坡动态现状分析、变化趋势预测和稳定性状研究,研究并开发滑坡综合评判决策系统,着重研究其功能实现的分析应用方面,并应用于解决实际滑坡灾害问题,实现其多元信息的综合分析与耦合研究。(4)针对滑坡工程治理区划问题,构建稳定性区划综合决策模型进行其稳定性综合区划研究,实现稳定性分区和影响因子分析,确定滑坡整体分为深层易滑区与浅层坍塌区；同时,为了研究滑坡深层易滑区的整体稳定性状况,建立多重属性区间数决策分析模型进行整体稳定系数区间计算,确定其整体稳定性差。(5)针对碎石土滑坡灾害类型,展开其综合治理决策研究,建立综合治理及评价决策的技术方法,进行滑坡治理规划及稳定性分析,并对其工程治理开展决策评价分析,结果表明滑坡防灾处治科学合理,能满足工程安全要求。(6)针对滑坡历经治理的稳定状态分析问题,实现基于变形时序信息的稳定状态区间分析确定,同时建立多因素多层次体系结构,构建综合评判决策模型进行多因子多层次综合决策研究,确定滑坡历经综合治理处于基本稳定状态。并且建立一种新的基于优先关系排序一二元相对比较法的权重计算确定方法。(7)针对滑坡历经治理的稳定状态预测和效果评价问题,基于其变形时序信息,构建分形预测模型进行滑坡治理稳定状态预测及其效果评价分析,结果表明滑坡综合治理效果显著,维持其安全稳定状态具有持久性和长期性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the continuous improvement of national economic development, in the large-scale tide of traffic construction, there are more and more slope geological disasters because of highway construction in the hilly area. Especially, landslide disaster is the main manifestation. Also, these disasters bring great harm and great losses to the construction, transportation and people’s lives and property. Therefore, in order to solve the slope or landslide disasters along highway and remove there adverse effects, it needs to expand research on integrated prevention and evaluation decision and form systemic technologies and methods of disaster prevention and evaluation decision. This has important research significance and practical significance.By means of detailed investigation analysis, safety monitoring and measurement, system development and application, theoretical basic research, decision model construction and deterministic mechanics calculation, the research on information integrated management and safety evaluation decision of slope was executed. Then, the information integrated management and evaluation decision support system of slope was developed and applied. Information management analysis of slope and inquiry and requirement based on WebGIS platform were expanded. The comprehensive evaluation decision system of landslide was developed and researched. The technologies and methods of stability evaluation and treatment decision for landslide were established. The stability condition and treatment effect of landslide through comprehensive treatment were studied. These could supply theoretical basic and technical support for integrated prevention decision and scientific evaluation. Finally, through research, the main contents and innovative ideas are as fallows:(1) With the requirement of information integrated management and research on prevention and evaluation decision of slope, the information integrated management and evaluation decision support system of slope is developed and studied to realize information management and processing analysis, resources requirement and research on prevention and evaluation decision. It can provide a technical platform for disaster evaluation, prevention decision, technical support and resources requirement.(2) Based on information management analysis and inquiry requirement system of slope, the information management analysis of slope and inquiry and requirement based on WebGIS platform are expanded. Moreover, the system is used to carry out practical application of slope engineering along highway in Zhejiang province. The results show that the system has higher value of promotion and application.(3) In order to realize condition analysis, trend forecasting and stability research of landslide, the comprehensive evaluation decision system of landslide is developed. Then, the analysis and application aspects of system functions are studied and used to solve landslide disasters. Certainly, the comprehensive coupling research is realized.(4) In order to resolve the problem of landslide engineering treatment zonation, the decision model is constructed to realize stability zonation and impact factors analysis, and the landslide is divided into deep skating area and shallow slumping area. Then, the decision model of multi-attribute and interval number is constructed to carry out global stability calculation and analysis of landslide, the results show that it has poor global stability.(5) In order to expand treatment decision research of gravel soil landslide, the treatment planning and stability analysis are carried out, then the decision evaluation of engineering treatment is executed. The results show that the prevention and treatment of landslide is scientific and rational, and the landslide meets the requirement of engineering safety.(6) For the problem of landslide stability condition analysis through treatment, based on deformation information the steady-state interval of landslide is determined. Simultaneously, the comprehensive evaluation decision model is constructed to carry out multi-factor and multi-level decision research. Through treatment the landslide is in stable state. Moreover, a new method of weight calculation and determination is established based on precedence relation sequence and binary relative comparison.(7) For the problem of steady-state prediction and effect evaluation of landslide through treatment, based on deformation information the fractal prediction model is constructed to carry out steady-state prediction and effect evaluation. The results show that the treatment effect is significant and the steady-state of landslide is long-term.更多还原