企业战略风险识别、评估与应对研究

【作者】 商迎秋；

【导师】 邹昭晞；

【作者基本信息】 首都经济贸易大学 ， 企业管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 经济全球化的不断深入,企业生存环境日益复杂、脆弱、多变和不确定。风险管理成为企业实现可持续发展、驾驭复杂多变环境的重要手段。战略风险作为企业面临的最大风险,目前仍处于研究的雏形阶段,本文根据战略风险管理实践的需求和理论现状,结合风险管理研究的核心内容,采用演绎法和归纳法以及问卷调查及案例分析相结合的方法,从战略管理过程入手,对战略风险识别、评估与应对进行研究。本文的研究过程和主要结论如下：本文首先界定了战略风险的概念,即战略风险是未来的不确定性对战略目标的影响。在对战略风险相关理论研究的基础上,从战略行为的角度提出了战略风险形成机理,即战略风险的形成是由于战略行为未能有效保持企业与环境的匹配而使战略目标偏离于预期,突破了现有的仅仅从企业与环境关系研究战略风险形成机理的思维模式。在战略风险形成机理提出的基础上,重点论述了战略决策和战略实施体系、战略资源和战略能力产生战略风险的内在成因,弥补了战略风险研究对战略实施体系重视和研究不足的问题,充实了战略资源和战略能力对战略风险产生的内在机理研究。建立了由战略环境、战略资源和战略能力和运营能力构成的战略风险识别框架,并采用情景假设的方法构建了可能的战略风险因素体系。通过问卷调查和统计分析检验了战略风险因素的真实性和战略风险识别框架的合理性。综合运用风险矩阵、模糊综合评价法和层次分析法对战略风险进行评估,不仅将定性和定量相结合,并且在一定程度上规避了主观因素的影响,并以船务公司为例,进行战略风险评估案例分析,结果表明比较符合企业的实际。通过对现有战略风险应对研究的基础上,结合风险管理理论内容,提出以战略风险管理策略为指导,以战略风险组织体系和战略风险预警机制为保障,以战略风险控制系统为手段的战略风险应对体系。并以船务公司为例,根据战略风险评估结果对战略资源风险进行了实际应对分析。本文的研究形成了完整的战略风险管理流程,即战略风险的识别、评估和应对。弥补了战略风险管理流程不完善的现状。更多还原

【Abstract】 The economic globalization is continuously thorough, business enterprise’s existing environment is complicated, weak, changeable and with indetermination.Risk management becomes an important means of achieving sustainable development and controlling compl-ex environment.Strategic risk as the biggest risk of enterprise facing is still in the beginning stage of research. According to needs of strategic risk management and strategic risk theory, the paper focuses on core contents of risk management research, with the use of deductive and inductive methods, questionnaire and case analysis methods, from perspective of strategic managemet process, carries on research about strategic risk identification, evaluation and treatment. The paper research process and main conclusions are as follows:The textual first defines the concept of strategic risk, effect of future uncertainty on strategic objectives. On the basis of strategic risk related theory research, the paper puts forward strategic risk formation mechanism from the perspective of strategic behavior. Strategic risk makes strategic objectives be deviated to expectation because strategic behavior can not effectively keep matching of business enterprise and environment. The strategic risk formation mechanism breaks through existing strategic risk thinking patterns which studies strategic risk formation mechanism only from perspective of relationships between business enterprise and factors of circumstance.On the basis of strategic risk formation mechanism proposed, the textual analyzes inherent causes of strategic risk forming coming from strategic decision, strategic implement system, strategic resources and strategic abilities. The textual makes up for research on strategic risk coming from strategic implementation system and makes full of internal mechanism study on strategic risks which come from strategic resources and strategic abilities.The textual establishes strategic risk identification framework, which is made of strategic environment, strategic resource and strategic capacity and operational capacity, and sets up a possible strategic risk factor system with scene assumption method. The textual examines the reliability of strategic risk factors and rationality of identification framework, through questionnaire and statistics.The textual comprehensively uses Risk Matrix, Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation and Analytical Hierarchy Process to evaluate strategic risk, not only making qualitative and quantitative combine, but also evading the influence of subjective factor to some extent. Takes shipping company as an example, the paper carries on the strategic risk valuation case analysis, the results indicate that they are consistent with the actual.At to the foundation of strategic risk treatment theory research, combining risk management theory contents, the textual puts forward strategic risk treatment system made up with strategic risk management tactics as instruction, strategic risk organization system and strategic risk early-warning mechanism as guarantee, and strategic risk control systems as means. Take shipping company as an example, according to results of strategic risk assessment, the textual carries on the actual treatment research.The textual formes the entire strategic risk management process, including strategic risk identification and evaluation and treatment, and makes up strategic risk management process not perfect present condition.更多还原