【作者】 赵斌；

【导师】 李文兴；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 产业经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 主导产业是现代经济增长的驱动轮,现代经济发展的过程从某种意义上说就是主导产业部门更替的过程,正是主导产业部门的有序更替,推动了产业结构的升级与经济发展。因此,正确选择主导产业成了世界上许多国家和地区产业结构政策的重要内容。沿着近代社会发展的历史轨迹,综合考查早期的英国,电力革命时期的德国、美国,以及二战后的日本,它们之所以能够在某一历史阶段取得快速发展,与其选择了符合国际产业结构变迁的主导产业有着直接关系。主导产业对于现代经济增长的带动作用,已经被学术界和政策当局广泛接受,尤其对于后发国家与地区而言,要实现经济的跨越发展,科学配置有限的资源,尽快缩小与发达地区的差距,需要正确选择主导产业。我国的西北地区是我国相对落后的经济区域,其恶劣的自然条件,薄弱的经济基础是造成落后的重要原因,在西北大开发战略已经实施了十多年来,西北地区的经济虽然取得了快速发展,甚至经济增长率多次超过全国的平均水平,但是与我国其它地区的发展差距仍然较为明显。当前,西北地区和全国其他地区一样,正在积极实施“十二五”规划,力争实现经济的快速发展和社会事业的全面进步,而由于西北地区存在着产业结构层次低,技术、资金不足突出问题。需要将有限的资源配置到最有效率的部门中去。因此,需要正确选择主导产业。本文正是基于上述背景下研究西北地区主导产业选择问题的,结合西部大开发战略实施十多年来,西北地区社会经济发展中面临的突出问题；尤其在“十二五”规划开始实施之际,重新审视西北地区的主导产业选择战略,有助于让国家优惠政策在西北地区产生“造血”功能；实现产业转移与本地特色产业发展和西北地区的经济发展与环境保护的协调,对以推进西北地区的产业结构高级化,实现区域经济由非均衡向均衡方向发展,缩小西北地区区域内部的城乡差距,尽快赶上全国工业化的步伐,具有重要意义。本文以西北地区为研究对象,以主导产业选择为研究内容,从西北地区主导产业的发展环境、历史变迁、区域比较等角度系统研究了西北地区主导产业选择的具体问题,全文拟从四个方面对西北地区主导产业选择问题进行研究。首先,介绍本文的立论依据,主要介绍本文的选题背景、意义,研究方法、创新之处等,并对目前与主导产业相关研究成果进行述评,发现现有研究的不足之处,为本文的以下章节的写作奠定基础(包括论文的第1、2部分)。其次,从规范的角度对西北地区主导产业的选择问题进行分析。将西北地区主导产业发展环境与主导产业选择的一般理论相结合,研究当前西北地区主导产业选择应坚持的原则、基准与应注意的问题,并对该地区主导产业形成的历史变迁进程进行研究。包括文章的(第3、4、5部分),再次,对西北地区主导产业选择进行实证研究。以2009年的截面数据为基础,建立多元化指标体系得出各省区的主导产业范围。根据技术进步基准、经济效益基准、产业竞争优势基准、可持续发展基准、就业贡献基准等确定具体指标,利用统计工具,选择因子分析方法,根据因子得分情况,选出以资源型产业为主的西北五省区的主导产业序列,分析西北地区整体区域层面上的主导产业在全国的地位,并以西北地区内部的关中-天水经济区的主导产业选择为案例,比较该经济区与成渝经济区、北部湾经济区的发展差距以及主导产业选择基本依据。(包括文章的第6、7部分)。最后,依据研究内容得出相应的结论,这些结论包括：西北地区应将资源型产业作为主导产业；要提高西北地区资源型产业的可持续发展能力；加强区域内部合作,提高西北地区的对外开放度等,并指出论文需要继续探索的主要问题。(包括文章的第8部分)。本文通过对西北地区主导产业选择进行系统研究,在充分借鉴前人的研究成果基础上,积极进行创新,主要的创新之处有以下几点：(1)本文对主导产业研究视域进行了拓展。综合目前主导产业选择的研究成果,绝大多数的研究是在产业结构理论与非均衡增长理论视角下进行探讨的。本文突破现有的理论研究框架,从产业组织、区域平衡发展,产业转移等角度对西北地区主导产业选择问题进行了探讨,对主导产业选择的研究视角进行了拓展。(2)研究的视角较为全面、新颖。目前的研究成果大多是从静态的角度,利用截面数据,依据设定的具体经济性的指标来选择主导产业。这种主导产业选择的方法从当前看是符合逻辑的,但是,在实践中,往往无法取得理想的效果,许多国家和地区的主导产业很快就夭折的现象,说明了仅仅从静态的视角来确定主导产业是不全面的。本文从历史的角度考查了西北地区主导产业选择的历史变迁,从区域内部横向的角度比较了主导产业的成长差异,结合西北地区的主导产业发展环境,使得主导产业的选择即符合产业结构变动的方向,又能立足西北地区经济社会发展的实际,同时具有主导产业应该具备的功能,尤其突出了主导产业动态发展和持续发展能力保持的微观基础,研究视角较为新颖、全面。(3)对主导产业选择的实质进行了研究。本文认为主导产业选择的过程是资源配置和利益调整的过程,是政府利用经济、行政等手段,瞄准产业结构变动方向主动适应经济形势变化的表现。本文对主导产业选择立足于西北地区资源禀赋状况和区情实际,探讨在此过程中的资源合理配置与利益调整问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 Leading industries are the driving wheels of modern economic growth. From the sense, the process of modern economic development is the alternating process of leading industrial sectors. It is an orderly turnover of leading industrial sector to promote the upgrading of industrial structure and economic development. The right choice of leading industry has become important part of industrial policy in many countries and regions. Along the historical development of modern society, comprehensive investigate early English, Germany and the United States in the Power Revolution, and Japan after World War II. They have been able to achieve rapid development in a stage, which has a direct relationship with the leading industries chosen in line with international changes in industrial structure.Pull function of Leading Industries for modern economic growth, has been widely accepted by academics and policy authorities. Particularly for late-development countries and regions, the leading industries need to be correctly selected in order to achieve great-leap-forward development, scientifically allocate limited resources, and narrow the gap with the developed areas. The northwestern region is relatively backward in China, because of its harsh natural conditions, weak economic base. Although over ten years of the Great Western Development Strategy, the northwest region’s economy has achieved rapid growth despite, even economic growth rate exceeds many times than the national average, the development gap with other regions in China is still relatively clear.Currently, Northwest China and, like rest of the country, is actively implementing the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, and strives to achieve rapid economic development and all-round social progress. Limited resources need to be allocated to the most efficient sectors because of those problems such as low industrial structure level, shortage of technology, capital and so on. Therefore, correct choice of leading industries is needed.Based on the above context, the issues of leading industries choice in Northwest China are studied. Over a decade when the Western Development Strategy has been implemented, some prominent problems exist in social and economic development in Northwest China. Especially during the 12th Five-Year Plan launched, re-examine the strategy of leading industries in Northwest region, and contribute to hematopoietic function produced by national preferential policies in the Northwest region. It is important to achieve the transfer of industries, local industrial development, and coordination between the economic development and environmental protection in Northwest region, for promoting Industrial Structure updating the Northwest region, achieving regional economic development from non-equilibrium to balance the direction, narrowing gaps of the urban and rural areas within the Northwest Regional, and catching up with the pace of industrialization in the country.The paper’s research object is the Northwest region whose research contents are choice of leading industries. The choice of leading industry in Northwest China is studied, from the angles of the development environment, history, and regional comparison and so on. The leading industries choice is researched from four aspects. First of all, theoretical basis is introduced, which focuses on the background, significance, research methods, innovations, etc.. Research achievements on the choice of leading industries are summarized. The shortcomings of former researches are pointed out based on combining the narration and review (Part 1,2). Secondly, selection of leading industry is analyzed from the normative point of view in the Northwest Region. With combination of the development of leading industries in Northwest environment and leading industries of the general theory, the principles, criteria and precautions that the leading industries selection should pay attention to in Northwest China are researched. And the process of historical changes are studied (Part 3,4,5). Thirdly, the leading industry choice is researched with empirical approach. An empirical analysis is based on section data in 2009, which obtained range of leading industry in each province through establishing a diversified index system. Specific indicators are identified according to technological progress basis, economic datum, industrial base competitive advantage, sustainable development benchmarks, and the employment contribution baseline and so on. Northwest China’s leading industry sequences are resource-based industries with the method of Factor Analysis. The status of leading industries in the country is analyzed, and contrast on the leading industries in Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone is taken as a case with comparison of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone and Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone in order to obtain development gap and basic foundation of leading industries choice (Part 6,7). Finally, the appropriate conclusions are obtained according to the above researches. These conclusions are:to take resource-based industries in Northwest China as the leading industries; to improve ability of sustainable development the resource-based industries; to strengthen cooperation within the region and improve the degree of opening up in the Northwest region. And the main problems need to continue to be explored are pointed out (Part 8).Based on system study on the leading industry selection in Northwest China, and previous research results, innovations are actively carried out. The main innovation points are as following:(1) Expand research fields on the selection of dominant industry. In summary, the research results of leading industries are on the view of the industrial structure theory and non-balanced growth. The existing theories research framework broken, the choice and research angle of the leading industries are discussed from the perspectives of industrial organization, regional balance development, industry transfer and so on.(2) The visual angle of study is comprehensive and novel. With the use of cross-section data Most of the current research results are based on the specific set of economic indicators to select leading industries from a static perspective. The method of the leading industries choice from the current view is logical, but in practice, often can not achieve the desired results. The leading industries in many countries and regions soon decline, indicating that the only perspective from a static Determine the dominant industry is incomplete. From a historical perspective this article examines history of changes on leading industries in Northwest China, compares the differences of the leading industries growth from the point of view within the region; Combined with the environment of leading industry in Northwest China, selection of leading industry is consistent with the direction of industrial structure change, but also based on economic and social development; the micro-foundation of the dynamic development of leading industries and sustainable development ability is highlighted.(3) The essence of the leading industries choice is studied. The process of dominant industry selection is the one of resource allocation and interest adjusting, which shows that the governments use economic and administrative means, aims at the change of industrial structure direction initiatively and adapt to economic situation changes. The selection of dominant industry is based on northwest resources endowment status and area reality, in which rational allocation of resources and interest adjustment problems are discusses.更多还原