【作者】 石宝林；

【导师】 周伟；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放后特别是1980年代中期以来,我国交通实现了跨越式发展,长期存在的对国民经济的“瓶颈”制约状况得到了极大改善,有力支撑了经济社会的快速发展。进入新时期,经济社会发展对交通运输提出了新的更高要求。交通发展要在满足日益增长的运输需求的同时,必须加快转变发展方式,加强生态环境保护、集约与节约利用资源,减少交通发展的负外部性,更好地服务经济社会发展。因此,深入研究我国交通发展模式转型问题,对于交通又好又快发展具有重要的意义。本文以公路、水路交通为主要研究对象,对我国交通发展模式中的主要理论和现实问题进行了研究,取得的研究成果如下：(1)从基本概念的讨论出发,在分析有关发展模式概念的基础上,界定了发展模式的定义、内涵等,为交通发展奠定逻辑起点与分析应包括的领域。基于该概念对国外交通运输发展模式演变的普遍规律和特点、建国后特别是改革开放以来我国交通发展模式的特点、问题进行剖析；(2)基于国内外动态与趋势,引入并定义交通物质资本存量的概念,引入永续盘存法分析交通资产与社会资产变动的关系,测算了历史期我国交通物质资本存量,分析了我国交通与国民经济的适应状况；以全要素生产率作为表征交通发展发展质量的度量指标,采用Malmquist-DEA方法测算全要素生产率(TFP),并将全要素生产率进一步分解为技术进步、技术效率与规模效率等方面,得到了更加科学、丰富的研究结果；并进而对我国交通发展适应性和发展质量进行了评价；(3)在发展动因定义基础上,分析交通运输发展动因的历史变化及贡献进行探讨；在制度因素分析中,引入并定义了交通市场化指数的概念,定义了交通市场化的测度指标体系,并以该体系为工具,测算了改革开放以来我国交通市场化指数就我国交通市场化的规律进行总结；(4)将效用(Utility)的概念从个体范畴扩展到社会群体范畴,引入到交通运输领域,对交通运输的效用进行了定义,在此基础上应用生命周期理论,提出了交通运输的社会效用曲线,对交通运输发展的阶段性以理论诠释,分析了交通运输发展阶段特征和我国交通运输当前所处的阶段,阐释了我国交通发展的历史方位；(5)基于SWOT法从外部环境和内部条件,分析了未来我国交通发展的优势、劣势、机遇和挑战,提出了未来我国交通发展模式转型战略；(6)对当前和今后一个时期我国交通发展模式战略选择进行了分析。基于前述多方面理论分析,结合交通行业多方面现状信息,对未来我国交通发展模式转型的战略目标与对策进行了讨论。(7)根据我国交通发展模式转型的内在要求,提出了当前与今后一个时期我国交通发展模式转型的战略目标与对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 After China’s Reform and Open Policy, especially from the middle of 1980s, China’s transport has been dramatically developed. It has successfully overcome the bottleneck effect on the national economy, and strongly supported the rapid social economic development. Entering into the new era, new and higher levels of transport demands are requested. The transport development should not only meet the demands of steadily increasing transport demands, but also accelerate the transformation of the development mode, emphasize on the eco-environment protection, resource intensive use and conservation, minimize the negative effects of transport development and better serve the social economic development. Therefore, an in-depth study on China’s transport development mode transformation is of great importance for achieving a "better and faster" transport development.This dissertation mainly focuses on highway and waterway transport. Some major theories and realistic problems of China’s transport development mode are systematically and thoroughly analyzed. Main achievements of this dissertation are as following:First, starting from the discussion of the basic concept and basing on the analysis of the concept of the relative development mode, the connotation of development mode is defined. And that defined the field that including the logical starting point and analysis for the transport development. Based on the concept, the article will analyze general regulation and features which was evolved from the foreign transport development mode, and analyze the feature and problems in national transport mode after China’s Reform and Open Policy.Second, based on the activity and trend both domestic and international, the concept of transport physical capital stock is introduced and defined to analyze the relationship between transport capital and social capital. And the quantity of transport physical capital stock in the past is calculated, and the adaptability of transport and social economy is analyzed. By using Total Factor Productivity (TFP) as the indicator of evaluating transport development quality and calculating TFP by the methodology of Malmquist-Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), dividing TFP further into technology advancement, technology efficiency and scale efficiency and other aspects, more scientific and intensive conclusions and outputs are obtained and furthermore to evaluate the transport development adaption and development quality in our country.Third, on the basis of the leading causes and driving factors, discussing the historical changes and contribution in the transport development causes. In order to analyze the institutional factors, index of transport market degree, a system of evaluation indicators of transport market degree is proposed. By using the system, we can calculate the transport market degree since the Reform and Open Policy. And summarize the regulation of the transport market in our country.Fourth, The concept of Utility that individual category to expand the scope of social group category, bring in to the transportation field, the utility of transportation is redefined, based on this application lifecycle theory, crossover collaboration of the transportation social utility curve, to transportation development phases with theoretical annotation, and analyzed the development characteristic and transportation in China transportation current at the stage, expound the history of the development of China’s transportation position.Fifth, on the basis of the SWOT strategic research methodology, the Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats of China’s transport development are analyzed coming from the aspects of external environments and internal conditions, furthermore, the future strategic of transport development mode transformation is proposed.Sixth, it makes an analysis of the transport development mode strategic choice in a current and future period. Based on the theory analysis and combined with the current information about the transport, the article will discuss the future strategic of transport development mode transformation.Seventh, according to the inherent requirements of transport development mode transformation, the strategic goal and countermeasure of transport development mode transformation in current and future period is proposed.更多还原