【作者】 张敏；

【导师】 陈红；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 经济圈是经济全球化和区域经济一体化形成的产物,是城市化进程加速发展的必然趋势。随着我国经济的飞速发展,不仅长三角、珠三角和环渤海三大核心经济圈的功能得到进一步提升和完善,其他次一级的经济圈也正在形成并逐步发展。经济圈交通系统是一个开放复杂的大系统,交通系统资源的整合和优化决定了经济圈集散和辐射功能发挥的效果。交通系统整体最大效益的充分实现,能够促进区域经济最大限度地发展和增长,并最大限度地满足经济圈交通运输需求。本文以经济圈交通系统为研究对象,具体分析了经济圈交通系统的演化规律,经济圈区域经济与交通系统的协同发展问题以及交通运输供需均衡问题。在研究区域经济、交通运输需求和交通运输供给等因素的相互作用关系的基础上,建立经济圈交通系统的动力学模型。经济圈交通系统是一个空间的耗散结构复杂系统,具有跨区性,拥有强大的经济中心城市,整体性和协调性,层次性,动态性,集疏功能与效益的间接性和长期性等基本特征。从经济圈与交通系统发展的因果关系动力机制分析,提出区域经济是经济圈交通系统发展的动力基础,交通运输需求是经济圈交通系统发展的内在动力,交通运输供给是经济圈交通系统发展的媒介力。运用共生理论,指出交通系统与区域经济的“共生”是指经济圈主体之间存续性的物质联系,也即共生单元之间在一定共生环境中按某种共生模式形成的关系。借用生物学上的Logistic模型,建立起描述交通系统与区域经济相互作用关系的数学模型,并对其稳定共生条件进行求解,从而描述和分析交通系统与区域经济协同共生关系。交通运输需求与供给是经济圈交通系统的重要组成部分,提出了影响经济圈交通运输供需均衡的各类因素,以此作为构建经济圈交通系统动力学模型的基本要素集。建立了经济圈交通运输供需总量均衡的弹性模型和结构均衡的熵模型,并结合算例进行了分析。从经济圈经济发展与交通系统的相互作用关系出发,考虑交通运输供给与需求的动态发展过程,从经济圈经济发展水平、交通需求、交通供给、宏观发展战略与政策等方面进行研究,分析各种因素在系统因果关系中的相互作用。构架系统流图和结构方程式,确定其中的参数和变量,从而建立了经济圈交通系统的动力学模型。以经济圈交通系统动力学模型为核心,根据关中—天水经济圈社会经济和交通系统现状,以及历年的统计数据整理,通过仿真分析验证了该模型的实用性和有效性,从宏观上把握未来经济圈的交通供需状态及经济水平的发展趋势。通过系统动力学模型进行不同政策实施效果检验,从而为经济圈交通系统的可持续发展提出合理化的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The economic circle is formed of economic globalization and regional economic integration, which is an inevitable trend of urbanization development. Along with the rapid economic development, the three core economic circles involved Yangtze River delta, Pearl River Delta and Around Bohai Area are developed further, as well as other sub-economic circles are formed and developing gradually. The transportation system in economic circle is a large opening and complicated system, its integration and optimization decide the distribution and radiation function of economic system. Only realized the maximum benefit of the whole transportation system, the regional economic can be promoted furthest, and the transportation demand in economic circle also can be satisfied furthest.Taking the transportation system in economic circle as the research object, this dissertation analyzes the evolution rule of transportation system, the coordinated operation between regional economic and transportation, and supply-demand equilibrium in economic circle. On the basis of the relationship among regional economic, transportation demand and supply, the system dynamics model for transportation in economic circle is built.Transportaion in economic circle is a spatial complex system with dissipative structure. It has some basic characteristics such as across-region, strong economical central city, globlity, co-ordination, stratified, dynamics, distribution and radiation function and so on. From the causalities relationship between economic circle and transportation, it is put forward that regional economy is the dynamic basis, transportation demand is the intrinsic motivation, and transportation supply is the media force for the transportation system in economic circle.Applying the symbiosis theory, it is pointed out that the symbiosis between transportation and regional economy is a surviving material connection among subjects in the circle. It is also a relationship for symbiosis units according to one symbiosis mode under a certain environment. Using the Logistic Model on the biology, the mathematical model described transportation and regional economy is established, which analyzes their coordinated relationship. Then the stable symbiosis requirement is solved.Demand and supply are the important components for the transportation system in economic circle. This dissertation proposes several of facters influencing supply-demand equilibrium in the circle, which are taken as the basic dataset to bulid system dynamic model. The elastic model of total equilibrium and the entropy model of structure equilibrium are built, with analyzing combined an example.Based on the relationship between economic development and transportation system, the interaction with every facter in this system is studied, considering the dynamic development of demand and supply, as well as economic level, demand, supply and strategy. The system structure equations and therein parameters are determined to build the system dynamics model for transportation in economic circle.With the system dynamics model as the core, the practicability and validity of the model are tested by simulating analysis, acoording to the dataset of Guanzhong-Tianshui economic circle. Thus the transportation demand-supply status and the economical level trend are holded on a macro. Finally, it can be given reasonable suggestions for the sustainable development of transportation in economic circle by means of testing different policies based on the system dynamics model.更多还原