【作者】 郑欣；

【导师】 孙启明；

【作者基本信息】 北京邮电大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 2005年国际电信联盟正式确认了物联网的概念,而在2008年全球金融危机之后,物联网以其技术领先广泛的行业覆盖以及智能化和统一化信息服务的理念,迅速被世界各国看做是摆脱金融危机影响、促进经济复苏的重要驱动力量。物联网被认为是继互联网之后,下一个改变人类生活形态的重大产业革命,其技术将会发展成为-个上万亿美元规模的高科技市场,其产业要比互联网大30倍。尽管物联网的发展得到了广泛的看好,但从当前市场规模发展情况看,其市场规模与相关机构的预测还是有较大的差距,尽管全球范围内的政府和企业对于物联网进行了大量的投入,但目前看来,物联网的市场应用还只是处在初级阶段,其主要的问题是缺乏适应市场需求的商业模式,缺少有良好反馈的行业应用。其根本原因还是对于物联网应用的特性挖掘不足,过于强调行业内部个体竞争和传统的商业盈利,对于其公共产品和公益性服务的本质挖掘不足,相关公共事业机构的作用体现也不够明显。本文在上述背景和相关研究的基础上,通过分析主要得出以下的一些结论内容：1.首先是对物联网的定义进一步优化：在传统物联网概念的基础上,强调物联网是通过射频识别、红外感应器、全球定位系统、激光扫描器等信息传感设备,基于社会、经济领域的实际管理和应用需求,按约定的相关协议,把需要联网的物品与网络连接起来,进行信息交换和通讯,以实现智能化识别、定位、跟踪、监控和管理的一种网络。通过RF工D为代表的智能感知识别,电信网、互联网和广电网为代表的通信网络以及云计算等智能运算平台的相关技术设备,将区域内的所有物体连入到统一的全球网络当中,使得其可以进行信息流、物流、资金流和价值流的传递,共享和相关数据存储,进而对网络中的每一个节点进行智能感知识别、定位、监测、管理和操控。2.在商业模式的概念体系上,本文认为商业模式是在一定的外部政策、技术、市场需求环境下,在不同发展阶段所体现出一种系统体系,体系中的主要内容包括各个主体在系统当中的定位,主体自身的价值活动(产品、服务、渠道策略、商业活动等),各个主体之间的关系以及其中价值流、资金流、信息流和物流的作用情况。通过商业生态系统的概念完善了商业模式的整体系统体系,并以各种流的作用情况来反映商业模式的整体运行机制。3.根据物联网的和商业模式的概念研究,本研究对于物联网商业模式的各个组成环节进行了比较详尽的分析,首先是强调了之前常被忽视的外部环境影响内容,认为政策法规、技术发展和市场需求的挖掘是其主要的外部影响体现,而在内部系统的组成上,系统的个体类型、价值模式、收入和盈利模式、竞合关系以及营销模式是主要的组成部分,而上述所有这些内容也都可以通过物流、资金流、信息流和价值流来完整的呈现。4.根据物联网商业模式的组成内容,本文以物流、资金流、信息流和价值流的内容形成了一个物联网商业模式关键成功因素的指标体系,通过对于大样本分群体的调研,得到了以下的一些调研结论：(1)从信度分析的结果来看,删除了产品软件价格和扩展应用价格两个指标后,整个调研的信度水平有所提升。最终将指标体系的数量控制在四大类42个指标。(2)通过均值分析的结果,可以得出影响程度较大的指标是传感器性能和芯片性能、政府支出、企业收入、产品硬件价格、资费数额、广告投入、广告收入和投融资数额、统一编码、网络速度、网络容量和信息安全性、状态实时性、实地性、应用便捷性、应用便利性、公共事业设施、公益服务性、监管与整合能力以及社会福利性上。总体看来,价值流部分指标的关注度要大于其他类指标,其重点主要体现在物流网的几个重点应用领域上,另外一个重点价值体现在于物联网服务的公益性特征上。分群体均值的分析结果,除了体现出各类群体的相关利益趋向之外,还能够反映出群体对于政策优惠以及有效监管的需求来。(3)从因子分析的结果看,可以将整体指标体系的影响划归为内部性能、外在表现、内部资金流、外部资金流、网络特性指标、信息特性指标、公益性指标、应用性指标和扩展性指标几个大类,其中公益性指标、网络特性指标、信息特性指标和外部资金流指标的关注程度较高。(4)从假设检验的结果看,四大类指标的总体检验都为显著,说明用户群体的差异对于商业模式几个组成部分的效应体现存在显著差异。而从具体的指标来看,影响比较显著的指标主要体现在内部性能、企业外部资金流、公益性和应用性方面的指标上。(5)关键成功因素的最终体现主要有公共物品特性,即与经典理论当中公共物品所具有的相关特征的契合以及公益性服务的典型特征体现；同时,物联网的发展需要政府投入、广告投入和投融资资金的扶持,以及硬件模块投入、泛在化网络环境建设和信息资源统一规划上。根据调研的分析,本文深入挖掘了物联网公共产品特性的体现,认为物联网在技术上拥有较强的前瞻性和行业适用性,是未来可以大幅度占领生产生活的产业类型。而通过对其应用类型的分类分析,可以挖掘其未来的行业发展可以占据几乎全部常见的民生需求类型,因此该行业与传统的电信类行业相比,在民生上的作用会体现的更加明显和全面,有更好的受众范围和空间,有潜力作为一种公共服务的模式,为用户提供全面和高效的智能化公共化服务。而通过一定周期的基础设施建设、技术发展和市场应用覆盖,可以使得物联网的服务在公共服务和其他商用领域的拓展上更为便利,更易为用户所接受。5.在物联网商业模式的设计当中,主要形成了以下的一些结论和研究成果：(1)当前物联网商业模式的主要模式是运营商和系统集成商主导的模式,服务类型主要体现为电信类的单个业务商用和定制类服务,其主要问题体现在缺乏统一的规划和技术标准体系,行业应用分散,同时缺少对于市场用户需求的有效发掘。(2)在物联网商业模式的发展阶段规划上,应该以公共事业的应用为切入点,以政府作为主要的先期推动力量,分别以市场规模的形成和技术市场应用体系的最终完善为标志,进行发展的阶段划分。(3)物联网商业模式初期的模式主要以公共应用为主,包括公共事业运营、公共平台租赁运营、客户自建移动支付模式和平台免费开放模式。成熟期在继承先期核心应用的基础上,逐渐导入其他类型的市场主体,显现出更多的市场竞争特征,包括系统集成商主导型、运营商单一主导性、双主体运营商推广型、运营商独立开发独立推广型和客户全部自建型。在发展的高级阶段——融合阶段,合作将成为主要的市场关系模式,通过政府、集成商等实力较强个体的资源聚集和统一导向,形成不同类型的服务应用集成平台,通过聚集各类优势资源形成更为完善和广泛的服务范围,最终提供更高质量的服务。主要的模式类型包括,软硬件集成商主导模式、软件内容集成商主导模式、云计算平台模式和云聚合模式。6.在以上分析的基础上,本研究提出了如下的发展策略建议：(1)政策建议方面,首先是强调物联网应该作为提升国家信息化应用水平,打破信息壁垒的国家战略层面规划,而相关政府部门应该加强行业的先期建设投入,并提升已有应用领域的行业监管水平；同时加强总体技术研发、网络基础环境和安全体系的建设；通过高校专业设置和国际交流等方式,加强物联网行业的人才培养。(2)市场推广方面,首先强调对于市场需求的重点覆盖领域,可以包括信息化转型、身份唯一性识别、智能环保化、安全性和节约性、产业的有效带动以及在交通、安全、医疗、教育、社会保障等方面的民生需求；通过资源互补、价值活动和资源交换的方式实现价值的创造和分配；在收入来源上,除了常规的业务资费、广告收入、投融资之外,还提出了减少政府安全、城市管理和人员管理成本,业务转移的增加收入方式；从盈利模式上看,除了传统的资费利润外,还结合收入方式的内容,提出了免费、极低资费、阶梯化服务、管理成本缩减和投入反向杠杆效应以及管理主体的有偿转让等盈利方式；通过博弈论的分析强调了在具体的应用过程中,个体间合作的重要性,并提出了聚合品牌营销、身份营销、环保营销、位置服务营销和个性化偏好营销等营销方式。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 2005 International Telecommunication Union formally recognizes the concept of The Internet of Things. After the financial crisis sweeps the globe in 2008, The Internet of Things was instantly deemed as an essential impetus to get rid of the influence of financial crisis and promote economic recovery by nations around the world owing to its advanced technology, wide cover of industries, and the notion of intelligent and unified information service. The Internet of Things is identified as the next industry revolution, following internet, to change the shape of human life; its technology will evolve into a high-tech market with the scale of trillions of dollars, thirty times of the internet.Even though nations around the world have been optimistic about the development of The Internet of Things, its current market scale has a large gap from what relevant organizations have predicted. The governments and corporations around the world have invested in this field substantially, but its market application remains in a preliminary phase. Its main problems are the lack of business models to meet the market demand, and good feedback from the industry application, which result from lack of mining the characteristics of its applications, its too much emphasis on individual competition within the industry and the traditional commercial profitability, lack for mining of nature of public goods and service, and not enough reflection of the role of relevant public utilities.Based on the background information above and relevant studies, the following analysis and conclusions are made in this dissertation.1.The concept of The Internet of Things has been optimized. On the basis of its traditional concept, the new concept is put forward as:Through RFID, infrared sensors, global positioning systems, laser scanners and other information sensing device, The Internet of Things combines items with the network based on social, economic management and the practical applications, to enable information exchange and communications and realize intelligent identification, location, tracking, monitoring and management. Through intellisense recognition such as RFID, communications network such as Telecommunications network, the Internet and wide power grid, relevant technology and equipment of smart computing platform such cloud computing, all objects within the region can be connected into a unified global network, so that information flow, logistics, capital and value flow can be transferred and shared, and relevant data can be stored. By doing this, each node in the network can be intellisense recognized, located, tracked, monitored and managed.2.For the concept series of business models, business models are a series of systems in different phase of development in certain external policy, technology and market demand environment. The systems include the positioning of each of the main in the system, its value activities-products, services, channel strategy and business, the relationship between each of the main and the interaction among the value of flow, capital flow, information flow and logistics. The whole series of systems of business models are improved by the concept of business ecosystem and its operation mechanism is reflected by the interaction among the flows.3.On the basis of the study on the concept of The Internet of Things and business models, a detailed analysis on each part of the business models has been carried out. First, the external environment influence, which has been overlooked, is emphasized in that the mining of policies and regulations, technology development and market demand is the main external influence. On the other hand, the internal system is composed of the individual type, value model, revenue and profit model, competing relations and marketing model, all of which can be shown by logistics, capital flow, information flow and value flow.4.According to the composition of the business models of The Internet of Things, an index system of critical factors in its success has been built with the content of logistics, capital flow, information flow and value flow. Through the survey of subgroups of mass sample, the following conclusions are drawn.(1)The reliability analysis shows that the level of survey is improved when two indexes-products software prices and extended application prices, are excluded. Consequently, the final index system is divided by four groups with 42 indexes.(2)The mean analysis shows that the indexes that affect are sensor and chip performance, government spending, corporate income, products hardware prices, amount of charges, advertising investment, advertising income and the amount of investment and financing, unified coding, network speed, network capacity and information security, real-time status, real-location status, application convenience, application ease, public utilities, public service, regulation and integration, social welfare, etc. In general, the indexes of value flow draw more attention than other groups, the focus of which is mainly reflected in several key application areas of logistics network, as well as characteristics of public welfare services of the Internet of Things. The analysis on the mean of sub-groups reflects not only the trends of relevant interest of sub-groups, but also the need for preferential policies and effective supervision.(3)The factor analysis shows the factors of whole index systems can be categorized as internal performance, external performance, internal capital flow, external capital flow, network characteristics, information characteristics, welfare, application and expansion, among which welfare, network characteristics, information characteristics, external capital flow draw the most attention.(4)The hypothesis testing analysis shows the general testing of four groups of indexes is all obvious, which indicates that different groups of users will have different influence on the parts of business models. To be specific, the indexes that affect the most are interior performance, external capital flow, publicity and application, etc.(5)The critical factors of success are ultimately indicated by characteristics of public goods—the fit for relevant characteristics of public goods in classical theory and the reflection of the typical characteristics of public service; meanwhile, the development of The Internet of Things need the support of government investment, advertising investment, capital investment and financing, hardware modules investment, ubiquitous network environment construction and unified planning of information resources.According to the analysis on the survey, the embodiment of characteristics of public goods is researched. The Internet of Things have promising future technically and industrial applicability, which can occupy the production and life in the future. By analyzing the sub-groups of application, it is predictable that its industrial development can occupy almost every aspects of people’s life. Thus, in comparison with the traditional telecommunications, it is more obvious and inclusive in the role of people’s life. And it has more promising user scale and space, and has the potentiality to be a mode of public service, providing comprehensive and efficient intelligent public service for the user. By a certain period of infrastructure, technology development and marketing covering, its service in publicity and expansion of other business field will be more convenient and easily accepted by the users.5.In the design of business models, the following conclusions and results are made.(1)The current business models are mainly leaded by operators and system integrators. A single commercial business and custom service are provided. Its main problem is the lack of unified planning and technical standard system, dispersed industries and lack of efficient digging of need of users in the market.(2)When the development phase of business models is planned, the application of public utilities should be the start point. Then with the government as an impetus, the stage of development should be plotted marked with the ultimate improvement of the formation of market scale and the application system of technology market.(3)The preliminary model is public application, including public utilities operations, public platform lease operations, customer self-service mobile payment and free open platform, etc. In the maturity phase, other market subject is imported on the basis of core application in preliminary phase. More market competition characteristics are immersed, including system integrators oriented, single operators oriented, two-body operators promotion, operator’s independent development and promotions, users’self-service, etc. In senior phase-integration, cooperation becomes the core model of market relation. By gathering the resources from the government, integrators and powerful individuals and the unified orientation, different service application integration platforms are formulated and the high quality of service can be offered by the integration of favorable resources to form a better and wider range of service. Major models include software and hardware integrators oriented, software content integrators oriented, cloud computing platform and cloud polymerization, etc.6.Based on the analysis above, the following development strategies are advised(1)In respect of policy advices, The Internet of Things should be planned as a national strategy so as to improve the application level of national information and break information barriers. The relevant government sectors should strengthen the construction investment in preliminary stage and upgrade the regulation level of current application fields. Meanwhile, they should promote the construction of overall R & D, network infrastructure environment and security system. Training for professionals in this industry should also be improved by setting professional department in colleges and strengthening international communication, etc.(2)In respect of marketing, core areas of marketing demand must be covered, which will include information transformation, unique identification, intelligent environmental protection, safety and conservation, effective promotion of industry, as well as people’s needs in transportation, safety, medical treatment, education and social security. The value can be created and distributed by complementary resources, value activities, resource exchange. In respect of source of income, ways to increase income are put forward-reducing the costs of government security, urban management and personnel administration, besides the routine methods such business charges, advertising income, investment and financing. Besides the common business profits, more models of earning are advised-free and low charges service, ladder service, management cost reduction, input reverse leverage effect and paid transfer of management subject. The game theory analysis shows the importance of the cooperation between the individuals in the process of application. Marketing models are proposed-polymerization brand marketing, identity marketing, environmental protection marketing, location service marketing, personalized marketing, etc.更多还原