基于国家利益分析的国际碳减排合作研究

【作者】 张文磊；

【导师】 戴星翼；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 在气候变化大背景下,碳减排问题成为近年来全球关注的焦点。由气候变化和碳减排自身的特点决定,国际合作是最合理的减排行动方式。然而国家间日趋扩大的减排立场分歧却与全球日益凸显的气候变化影响形成了鲜明的对比。国际合作的核心在于国家利益,当前国际碳减排合作面临的困境,反映了各国间在减排利益上的差异和矛盾。国际国内已有许多学者对于碳减排相关的成本和收益进行过研究,但这些研究大多主要看重全球性的成本收益分析而轻国家分析,对于国家特点关注不足,尤其缺少对于当前国际气候谈判领域主要利益群体的比较分析。即使有学者在对国家间碳减排的成本收益进行比较时,选取的视角也大都比较片面,往往只侧重于碳减排的一部分收益或成本,或者是影响利益的一部分因素,缺少全面的系统性分析。更有许多研究在研究过程中脱离实际,甚至带有明显的倾向性,例如夸大气候变化的损失和发展中国家具有的减排潜力,而忽略气候变化的诸多不确定性、发达国家在全球减排中所能获得的潜在收益、发展中国家减排的资源劣势和所需要付出的发展成本等。这些问题的存在使得当前的研究成果往往无法准确解释各国在碳减排问题上的不同立场以及国际气候谈判为何会频频陷入困境,对于实际工作缺乏指导意义。由此,本文尝试运用综合指标分析以及模型分析等经济学研究方法,从国家利益比较的角度研究国际碳减排合作中的障碍和解决思路,对碳减排领域中真实的利益分布情况和未来碳减排合作框架内合理的利益分配机制进行了较为系统的研究。首先,对当前国际气候谈判中存在的主要利益群体及其立场进行了整理和界定,将核心问题进一步细化为不同利益群体间的利益比较问题；然后,重点研究了与碳减排相关的收益和成本的构成以及影响这些收益和成本的主要因素,并指出了不同类型国家间在各类收益和成本上的差异,为进行综合的利益分析建立了基础；在此基础上,运用情景分析方法和博弈分析方法对不同利益群体在国际合作减排情景下可能获得的利益结果和由此对国际碳减排合作产生的影响进行了分析和解读,证明了利益差异的存在对于建立国际碳减排合作的关键影响；最后,针对在碳减排的利益平衡方面存在的问题,提出通过四项关键性制度的建设实现国际碳减排合作的目标。和现有的碳减排研究相比,本文的主要创新点包括：第一,系统地研究了气候变化损失的产生、类型和对不同类型国家的影响机理,指出并纠正了当前研究的不足。同时提出并论证了全球合作减排情景下拥有低碳优势的国家可获得的潜在收益,与减缓气候变化这一直接收益共同组成了更加完善的碳减排收益体系。第二,对碳减排的成本进行了执行成本和发展成本的划分,并综合分析了各类成本的产生形式和影响因素,特别是被多数研究所忽视的发展成本的产生机理,为碳减排的成本研究建立了更加完整的分析框架。第三,在全面研究碳减排各项成本收益的基础上,建立了国家利益和国际碳减排合作的情景分析和博弈分析模型,模型分析结果与国际谈判走势和各国立场之间具有较高的一致性。进而据此从利益平衡的角度提出了通过四项关键性制度建设,提高各国绝对利益的可获得性,均衡相对收益的差异性,降低各国的立场分歧,从而成功达成国际碳减排合作的理想愿景。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the circumstance of climate change, carbon emission reduction has become the global focus in recent years. The characteristics of climate change and carbon abatement require international cooperation, however, the growing global impact of climate change and differences in emission reduction position of countries are in sharp contrast. According to theories of international cooperation, national interests are the core of international cooperation. So the current international cooperation dilemma of carbon emissions reflects the differences and conflicts on interests between countries.Researchers from home and abroad have already made many research and studies on the costs and benefits of carbon abatement. These studies mainly focus on the global cost-benefit analysis, but show little attention to the analysis of different characteristic of each country, especially the cooperation and analysis of the major interest groups in the field of international climate negotiations. Even the little cost-benefit analysis on the national level is some kind of one-sided, only concerning part of the revenues or costs of carbon emission reduction, or some influential factors, which lacks comprehensive and systematic analysis. Moreover, divorced from reality, many studies in this field have obvious bias, such as exaggerating the loss of climate change and the emission reduction potential in developing countries while ignoring many uncertainties of climate change, the potential gains of developed countries, and the development costs which developing countries have to pay during the global carbon reduction process. These problems make the current researches unable to explain the different positions of countries in the carbon abatement, the deadlock of international climate negotiations and lack practical guidance.Thus, in this dissertation, economic analyzing tools such as comprehensive index analysis and model analysis are used in the systematical research on the comparison of national interests in the international cooperation framework of carbon emissions reduction.First, the major interest groups of international climate negotiations and their positions are consolidated and defined, and core issues of the article are further refined as the interests between different interest groups; then, the costs and benefits, associated with carbon reduction, and their factors are studied. Besides, the variation of benefits and costs in the different types of countries are pointed out, which establish the basis for comprehensive benefit analysis. On this basis, scenario analysis and game analysis are used to estimate the different expected benefits of interest groups in international cooperation, which proved the key impact of interest differences on international cooperation in carbon abatement. Finally, four key institutional measures are proposed to achieve carbon reduction targets in international cooperation.Comparing to current studies on carbon emissions abatement, this research features the following aspects of innovations.Firstly, the article systematically studies the causes and types of the loss of climate change, and it impacts on different countries, and pointed out the deficiencies of current research. It also proposed and demonstrated the potential benefits that low-carbon countries may obtain under global cooperation. These potential benefits, together with the mitigation, composed the better carbon reduction system.Secondly, the carbon reduction costs are divided into implementation costs and development costs. Besides, the forms and factors of different costs are discussed, especially the formation mechanism of the development costs, which is neglected by most researches. The discussion set a comprehensive analytical framework for the costs studies of carbon reduction.Thirdly, based on the research of the costs and benefits of carbon abatement, a scenario analysis model and a game theory model are set up to study the national profits and international cooperation of carbon reduction, whose results have high consistency with the trend of international climate negotiations and the real attitude of different countries. Then, from the perspective of interest balance, the article indicated that the international cooperation system of carbon abatement can be established through four key institutional measures which will improve the availability of the absolute interest of countries, lower the gaps of their relative interest and remove the differences of national position.更多还原