【作者】 陈静彬；

【导师】 岳意定；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 本文基于湖南省粮食生产和耕地保护的历史和现状,详细分析湖南省粮食产量波动特征及其影响因素；运用定性和定量相结合的方法对湖南省粮食需求量、满足粮食安全水平的耕地需求量、未来耕地保有量和粮食生产能力进行预测；提出粮食安全预警模型,有效把握湖南省粮食安全状态；采用实地调研,深入分析湖南省粮食主产区的粮食生产、流通与储备,耕地保护与土地流转等关键问题。基于对实地调研采集的大量历史和现实的第一手资料的分析得出：湖南省粮食生产能力自1978年以来逐步提高,但受自然和人为因素的影响,湖南省粮食总产量年际间存在一定的差异,耕地及播种面积、灾害情况、化肥施用量均对粮食产量有着直接影响,人口增长和居民消费水平是影响粮食需求的主要因素。从中长期粮食供给状况来看,湖南省粮食供求关系相对紧张,未来的粮食需求量仍会持续上升。采用加权马尔柯夫链模型、回归模型、灰色系统模型等多种方法进行预测,结果表明：湖南省2015年、2025年共需粮食分别为3266.75万吨、3684.00万吨；2015年、2025年耕地需求量分别为366.53万公顷、399.48万公顷；2015年、2025年耕地可供给量分别为372.3358万公顷、370.0378万公顷；2015年、2025年粮食生产能力分别为3328.68万吨、3412.49万吨。可见,湖南省未来耕地可供给量和粮食生产能力在2015年尚能满足需求,但至2025年将低于需求量,这将对湖南省的粮食安全提出挑战。采用熵值法、灰色关联法和层次分析法相结合对湖南省粮食安全状态进行评价和预警,结果表明：自1978年以来,湖南省粮食安全水平处于不稳定的波动状态,其中以1997年前的状态较好,1997年后的粮食不安全状态出现频率较高,尤其体现在2003年前后至今,多为不安全或接近不安全状态,因此亟待建立确保湖南省粮食安全的长效机制。采用座谈会、现场走访、问卷调查等形式展开实地调研,深入调查湖南省粮食主产区粮食安全和耕地保护现状,结果表明：常德市鼎城区和浏阳市粮食生产能力状态良好,但从耕地保护、土地流转和粮食生产、流通和储备等实际操作的方式方法来看,存在较多影响粮食安全的隐患问题亟待解决。基于此,针对当前存在的问题,提出湖南省粮食安全保障机制的建立要综合考虑多方面因素,重点改善和创新耕地保护机制,同时从生产、流通和储备等环节全方位着手,将粮食安全政策与相关措施合理搭配以保障粮食安全的良好状态。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the history and current situation of grain production and cultivated land protection in Hunan Province, the fluctuations characteristics of grain production and its affecting factors were analyzed in this paper. Using qualitative and quantitative methods, the grain demand, cultivated land demand, amount of cultivated land reserved and grain production capacity of Hunan Province were predicted. Grain security predicting and warning models have been proposed and the states of grain security in Hunan Province were grasped effectively by using them. As a case study, Grain production, circulation and reserves, cultivated land protection, land transfer and other hot issues in 2 major grain-producing areas of Hunan Province, Liuyang city and Dingcheng district, were discussed further by the method of investigation.Inverstigation data of history and current situation were collected and researched as a basis in this paper. Since 1978, Hunan grain production capacity has been gradually increased. But because of natural and man-made factors affected, for Hunan grain output, there are certain differences between different years. Analysis showed that the cultivated land, disaster, acreage sown in grain crops, amount of fertilizer application had a direct impact on food production, and population growth and consumption levels are the main factors affecting on food demand. From the medium and long-term food supply situation in Hunan, there is a relatively tense relationship between food supply and demand, and Hunan grain demand will continue to rise in future.By using weighted Markov chain model, regression model and gray system model etc, result of predicting showed:In Hunan Province, grain demanded was 3266.75×104 tons in 2015 and 3684×104 tons in 2025, land demanded was 366.53×104 hectares in 2015, and 399.48×104 hectares in 2025. The supply of cultivated land will be 372.3358×104 hectares in 2015 and 370.0378×104 hectares in 2025; the food production capacity will be 3328.68×104 tons in 2015 and 3412.49×104 tons in 2025. The future supply of cultivated land and food production capacity in Hunan Province may suffice for the demand in 2015, and will be lower than demand in 2025. The projection result would provide a basis for suggesting food security guarantee in Hunan.Assessment results on the state of food security in Hunan Provine by using combination analysis method of entropy and gray correlation showed that, fluctuation of level of food security in Hunan was in fluctuation state. Since the reform and opening up, of which, state of food security was better before 1997, and state of food insecurity appeared more frequently after 1997. So it is urgent to establish long-term effective mechanism of ensuring food security in Hunan.By the method of seminars, field visits, questionnaires etc., results of inverstigation showed that the grain production of Dingcheng District Changde City and Liuyang City were in good condition, but there were more hidden problems affecting food security about cultivated land protection, land transfer and grain production, circulation and reserves, and other practical ways and means. Establishment of grain security mechanisms obtained from the current problems should consider various factors, such as focus on improving and innovative mechanisms for cultivated land protection, production, distribution and storage sectors combined, food security policies and related measures with a reasonable etc.更多还原