【作者】 于丽敏；

【导师】 王国顺；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 金融危机导致我国出口急剧下降,扩大内需成为政府、经济学家和企业界的共识,近期以扩大内需应对金融危机成为很多经济政策的着力点、出发点和主线之一。就扩大内需的具体措施而言,占全国总人口17.25%的农民工的消费问题不能不引起重视。因此,对其进行深入研究具有非常重要的研究价值。“农民工”是中国经济转轨时期形成的一个特殊群体。庞大的农民工队伍跨越了城乡和区域涌入城市打工生活,巨大的消费潜力已使其成为城镇、农村居民之外的消费“第三元”。当前,各级政府都在探索有效扩大内需的政策,研究农民工消费行为,将这个特殊群体的消费纳入到政策范围,无疑具有重要的现实意义。根据笔者所及文献,国内很多学者从不同视角分析了农民工消费问题,然而全面、系统的研究农民工消费行为的文献非常缺乏。由于农民工消费行为是与经济社会发展水平、政治经济制度、消费观念、文化传统等诸多因素联系在一起的,基于特定视角的分析往往忽视了农民工消费行为的复杂性,因此未能对一些经济现象之间的内在联系给予充分的揭示。本文在以往研究的基础上更进一步,重点围绕以下几个问题展开研究：(1)农民工消费行为有何特征?(2)农民工消费结构状况如何?其形成的机理是什么?(3)农民工收入与消费行为的关系怎样?(4)农民工汇款行为对城乡两地消费的影响?(5)制度因素怎样制约了农民工消费行为? (6)哪些措施能够促进农民工消费行为转型以拉动内需?为了完成上述问题的研究,借鉴管理学、统计学、经济学等理论,运用理论推论与调查数据相结合、构建模型定量分析与专家评价定性分析相结合,取得了以下研究成果与结论：(1)揭示了农民工消费行为特征。农民工从农村迁移到城市,虽然工作生活环境和收入都发生了改变,但传统的消费习惯根深蒂固,决定其消费行为在很大程度上沿袭了传统的农村型消费行为；同时受到了城市生活方式的吸引和文化观念的影响,导致了他们的消费行为又具有一定的城市型消费特征。因此,其消费行为具有鲜明的二元性特征。(2)农民工工资水平总体偏低。通过描述分析和统计分析,得出结论：2004年是我国农民工工资水平的分水岭：2004年前农民工工资水平一直处于偏低水平并且一度无几增长,2004年后有所增长,但是他们的工资增幅小增长速度慢。(3)得出收入是影响农民工消费行为最重要的因素的结论。通过运用线性回归分析方法,研究农民工收入与消费行为的关系,结果表明,较低的工资水平和不稳定的收入最大限度的制约了农民工消费。(4)利用灰色关联度分析方法解析了农民工消费结构特点。(5)提出了制度因素是当前农民工不能大胆消费的最大瓶颈,而户籍限制是影响农民工消费行为的制度根源。要破解农民工消费问题,必须彻底改革城乡二元户籍制度。(6)提出必须建立农民工政策体系和政策评价体系,增强农民工政策的执行性。(7)提出了促进农民工消费的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the 2008 world financial crisis, many government officials, economists and entrepreneurs in China have realized the weakness of the country’s export-driven economy, which was shown by the sharp decrease of China’s export volume hit by the financial crisis. Consequently, much of the government economic policies have shifted their focus on domestic demand.Immigrant workers as a group consists of 17.25 percent of China’s population. Their consumption behaviors have great impact on China’s domestic demand. Therefore, research on such issue should have important policy implications. "Immigrant workers" refers to a specific group of Chinese population, who emigrate from (western) rural areas to work in (eastern coastal) cities during the country’s economic transition period. With the size of their population, immigrant workers have become the "third" driving force of domestic consumption (besides city and rural residents).Previously, much research has done on the consumption behavior of Chinese immigrant workers. However, to our best knowledge, most of these researches focus on a specific aspect of the issues. Because the consumption behavior of immigrant workers is affected by a number of interrelated factors, such as the degree of social and economic development, political system, consumption conception, cultural ideas, research focus on a single factor tends to miss the complexity of the consumption behavior of immigrant workers and the interrelation of such factors.This paper extends previous research to provide a systematic and comprehensive analysis on the consumption behavior of immigrant workers. Specifically, this study focuses on the following issues:(1) what are the main characteristics of the consumption behavior of immigrant workers? (2) What is the main structure of the consumption behavior of immigrant workers? How does such structure being developed? (3) How is the relation between income and consumption behavior of immigrant workers? (4) How does income transferring by immigrant workers to their families affect the urban and rural consumptions? (5) How do the systematic factors affect the consumption behavior of immigrant workers? (5) What kinds of policies can be implemented to encourage immigrant workers’consumption and thus increase domestic demand?Based on theories from management science, statistics and economics, we build our models and empirically study the above issues using actual data and questionnaire from experts. Our main findings can be summarized as followings:(1) Although their working conditions and incomes have improved, immigrant workers still maintain their country-side consumption behavior to a large degree. On the other hand, influenced by city life-style and cultural ideas, the consumption behavior of immigrant workers also exhibit to some extent city consumption characteristics.(2) In general, immigrant workers’wages are relatively lower than their city counterparts. Results from our descriptive statistics show that, before 2004, the wages of immigrant workers had grown little and stayed at a relatively lower level. After 2004, there have been some increase in immigrant workers’wages, but the growth rate has been much lower than the growth rate of GDP and the share of GDP contributed by immigrant workers.(3) Income is the most important factor affecting the consumption behavior of immigrant workers. Our regression results on the relation between immigrant workers’incomes and immigrant workers’ consumption behavior show that immigrant workers’spending is greatly limited by their lower wage and income uncertainty.(4)We also analyze the characteristics of immigrant workers’ consumption behavior using grey correlation method. (5) We argue that some systematic factors greatly restrict immigrant workers’spending. Among these systematic factors, household registration system is the most important factor. Therefore, to encourage immigrant workers to spend, the dual household registration system differentiating city residents from rural residents in China must be abolished.(6) We propose that a policy system for immigrant workers and the associated evaluating system should be established.(7)Finally, we make some policy recommendations to encourage immigrant workers to spend.更多还原