【作者】 陈海涛；

【导师】 陈建宏；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 资源与环境经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 新世纪前期,中国经济进入快速发展的轨道。资源问题特别是石油的安全问题最引人关注。国内外研究石油安全的学者很多,但是从供应链的角度完整地研究中国石油安全的研究成果十分鲜见。论文从供应链的视角将石油安全问题进行分解研究,利用灰色关联、灰色预测、系统动力学、k-means聚类分析、AHP等多种理论对研究过程进行科学化、理论化处理,为我国进行石油安全分析决策提供新的研究思路。具体研究内容如下：(1)石油进口安全性分析。利用灰色系统理论对我国石油对外依存度进行了预测。利用系统动力学理论对我国石油需求进行了预测。对我国石油进口的供应风险、市场风险和运输风险进行了研究,在此基础上建立我国石油安全进口的数学模型。(2)石油储备方式优化分析。利用灰色关联理论与模糊综合评价理论对各种石油储备方式进行综合评价,提出了适合我国国情的近期、远期石油储备方式,并对海上储油方式和地下盐穴储油方式的可行性进行了论证。(3)战略石油储备基地选址。利用灰色关联理论与模糊综合评价理论对我国沿海石油储备基地进行了选址；利用最大覆盖模型对我国内陆地区石油储备基地进行了选址；同时对边疆地区石油储备基地进行了选址研究。(4)中国各地区石油短缺聚类分析。通过建立GM(1,1)模型,利用MATLAB软件预测出2009-2020年我国31个地区石油资源短缺聚类分析的相关指标值,利用SPSS软件,结合k-means聚类方法,分别计算出2010年、2014年和2019年我国31个地区的石油资源短缺聚类分析结果。(5)中国战略石油应急调度研究。提出了符合我国国情的石油储备动用条件、动用程序和调度原则。建立了石油储备应急调度的不平衡运输模型,利用winQSB软件,分别制定出2011年我国一期原油储备基地对不同安全等级地区的原油最优调度方案,2015年我国一期和二期原油储备基地对不同安全等级地区的原油协同调度最优方案,2020年我国一期、二期和三期原油储备基地对不同安全等级地区的原油协同调度最优方案。更多还原

【Abstract】 At the beginning of new century, the Chinese economy has entered a rapid development track. Resources problems, especially the safety problems of oil resources, taken most concern. There are many domestic and foreign scholars who study the safety problems of oil resources, but research results to completely research of oil resources from the perspective of supply chain in China are very rare.This paper divided oil resource security problem from the perspective of supply chain, gray correlation, gray prediction, system dynamics, k-means clustering analysis, AHP and other scientific theories were used to scientifically and theoretically treat, providing new ideas for analysis and decision-making of Chinese oil security. Specific contents are as follows:(1) For security analysis of oil imports, firstly, the current situation of Chinese external dependence degree of oil consumption was analyzed, secondly, gray prediction theory was applied to predict and analyze Chinese external dependence degree of oil consumption, system dynamics was applied to simulation forecast and policy simulation on the Chinese oil demand, then the supply risk, market risk and transportation risk of Chinese oil imports were analyzed, Chinese oil import supply chain model was established on these.(2) For optimization analysis of oil storage, firstly, the gray relational theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were applied to analyze and evaluate the oil storage ways, from which choose a suitable way to Chinese oil reserve. Putting forward the way of short-term and long-term oil reserves which suit to the national conditions,and the ways of the sea and underground salt carven storage reserviors were domonstrated the feasibility.(3) For site choice to strategic oil reserve bases, the model of oil reserve base selection was established based on gray theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, coastal port cities and inland cities were divided into the selection of the oil reserve base.Meanwhile,site choices to oil reserves of border areas were researched. (4) For cluster analysis of the oil shortage for each region, first the evaluation indexs of oil shortage were determined, through the establishment of GM (1,1) model, MATLAB software was used to predict the indexs values of 31 provinces in China from 2009 to 2020, the SPSS software was used to calculate the clustering results of 31 regions in 2010,2014 and 2019 with k-means clustering method.(5) For emergency dispatch of oil, using conditions, using principles and proceduces were proposed, unbalanced transportation scheduling model of emergency oil reserve was established. WinQSB software was used to develop optimal schedule solution to first phase crude oil reserve base of different security levels to the regions in 2011, first phase and second phase crude oil reserve base of different security levels to the regions in 2015, first phase, second phase and third phase crude oil reserve base of different security levels to the regions in 2020.更多还原