【作者】 徐林生；

【导师】 王执铨；

【作者基本信息】 南京理工大学 ， 系统工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 在武器装备论证过程中,我们经常需要解决各种评价问题,如型号论证中的装备方案评价问题、规划论证中的装备体系评价问题等。选择合适的评价方法较好地解决这些评价问题,是提高武器装备论证水平、增强武器装备建设决策科学性的关键。而多属性评价理论的发展,为我们研究解决这些评价问题提供了理论基础。本文利用多属性评价理论和方法,对武器装备论证过程中的装备方案评价问题、装备体系评价问题以及专家可信性问题等进行了初步研究。主要研究成果如下：(1)在分析武器装备论证过程及装备方案评价需求的基础上,建立了选择装备方案评价属性的基本原则,讨论了根据战术技术指标和作战使用要求对装备论证方案进行多属性评价的方法；提出了对装备作战性能进行多属性评价的模型和方法,解决了同一装备型号不同技术实现方案之间的评价对比问题。为优化武器装备型号论证方案、提高武器装备方案评价的实用性奠定了基础。(2)分析了武器装备体系的基本内涵与特征,并在充分探讨武器装备体系论证过程和装备体系评价需求的基础上,提出了确定武器装备体系评价属性的“四要素法”,为增强武器装备体系多属性评价的适应性和实用性奠定了基础；分别讨论了武器装备体系能力评价、作战效能评估和武器装备体系论证水平评价等问题,建立了相应的评价模型和方法,为解决武器装备规划论证过程中的体系评价问题提供了方法和理论支持。(3)考虑到多属性评价活动中专家的重要性,比较详细地讨论了专家评价意见的可信性问题,建立了二值化评价、序数型评价和基数型评价时的专家可信度量化模型,并利用聚类分析方法按照可信度大小对评审专家进行排序和分类,为剔出可信度较低的专家评价意见提供了依据。提出了对经常参加各种武器装备评价活动的专家群体进行“闭环”管理的思路和方法,为武器装备评价活动优选专家群体、提高评价水平提供了理论支撑。(4)探讨了竞争择优评价活动中存在的专家非正常偏好问题,提出了专家“偏好同盟”的概念,探讨了专家“偏好同盟”现象的基本特征,并在系统分析专家“偏好同盟”评价策略的基础上,提出了判断专家“偏好同盟”存在的主要判据,并初步分析了专家“偏好同盟”存在情况下判定最终评价结果有效性的方法,为今后提高竞标评价活动的公正性提供了评判依据。最后,在总结全文研究工作的基础上,提出了今后需要进一步探讨问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the argumentation process of weapons and equipment, we often need to solve various evaluation issues, such as evaluation of weaponry projects, and evaluation of weaponry systems when we propose the planning scheme of weapons and equipment. An appropriate evaluation method to better solute these issues, is necessary to improve the argumentation quality of weapons and equipments, and helpful to get more efficient decision-making of weapons and equipment. And the development of multi-attribute evaluation method enhances theoreital foundation for us to study and solve the evaluation problems.With the help of multi-attribute evaluation theory and methods, this dissertation attempts to discuss weaponry projects evaluation, system evaluation of weaponry systems and experts’credibility evaluation in the argumentation process of weapons and equipment. The main contributions can be enumerated as follows.First, based on the analysis of weaponry argumentation process and the demands of weaponry projects evaluation, the dissertation puts forward to basic principles of evaluation attributes in argumentations of weaponry projects. According to the tactical and technical indices and combat requirements, the dissertation discusses the basic methods of evaluation implementing multi-attribute evaluation in the argumentation process of weaponry projects, and it also presents the multi-attribute evaluation model and method to operational performances. It solves the problem of comparison analysis between different technical realization schemes about the same weapon system. It lays the foundation for optimizing the weaponry argumentation scheme and improving the practicability of the method for evaluating weapons and equipment.Second, the dissertation analyses the basic connotation and characteristics of weaponry systems. Based on deep discussing about argumentation process of weaponry systems and the demand of weaponry evaluation, it puts forward to the "Four Main Factor Method" of determining attribute system so as to lay a foundation to strengthen utility effect and adaptability of weaponry systems multi-attribute evaluation. It also discusses the capacity evaluation and operational effectiveness assessment of weaponry systems and the level evaluation of weapons and equipment argumentation. It establishes the corresponding evaluation models and methods in order to provide methods and theoretical support for solving the evaluation problems in the argumentation process of weapons and equipment.Third, because of the importance of experts activity in an evaluation, this paper discusses in details the reliability of expert credibility, establishes the numberical models of experts credibility at three different evaluation types. According to the expert credibility, it uses clustering analysis method to arrange and classify the experts. It provides the basis to carve out advice from less reliable experts. It provides ideas and methods to make "closed-loop" management for experts group who often participate in the activities of weapons and equipment evaluation, and gives theoretical support for selecting expert group and improving the evaluation level of weapons and equipment.Fourth, it explores expert’s abnormal preference in some competitive selection, gives the concept of "expert preference alliance, EPA" and probes into basic characteristics of the phenomenon of EPA. On the basis of analysing EPA’s evaluation methods, it researches the main evidences of EPA, preliminary analyses how to determine the effectiveness of ultimately evaluation result in condition of expert preference alliance and provides the standard for further improving bid evaluation activitiesFinally, on the basis of concluding ideas, the paper points out some issues still needing a further study.更多还原