【作者】 王晓辉；

【导师】 秦富；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 植物油是居民日常生活的重要消费产品,消费数量和质量的变化在一定程度上是社会经济发展水平的重要标志。我国是传统的植物油生产大国,在新中国成立后的很长一段时间内,国内油脂供给长期处于供求基本平衡的状态。只是在上世纪90年代中期以后,特别是进入21世纪以来,随着国内经济快速平稳发展,居民收入水平和消费水平持续提高,对包括食用油在内的多种食品改善性需求增强。极大的促进了国内植物油产业的发展,但是也相应出现了国内油脂产量不能满足需求,必须通过进口,且是不断增加的进口来弥补供给缺口,才能保障消费的增长的现象。因此我国自上世纪90年代中后期起就已经稳定的成为油脂(含进口油料折油)净进口国。进口油脂油料数量的快速增长,对于满足国内消费需求具有重要的意义,特别是在我国耕地资源和水资源严重不足,资源对农业生产的约束日益加深的情况下,进口产品相当于进口了耕地和水。但是,不容忽视的是进口对国内相关产业的冲击。一是影响了国内油料作物的种植。在进入2000年以后,随着进口油脂油料数量的增加,国内三种主要油料作物的播种面积进入了滞长期,2001年到2005年间的播种面积在3100万公顷波动,主要原因是种植效益增长缓慢,在2006年和2007年还出现了大幅度的下滑;二是外资油脂加工企业在国内快速扩张,并在实际加工量上处于强势的准垄断地位。我国植物油产业的巨大增长空间,吸引了跨国粮商积极进入。代表性的企业即俗称的ABCD四家,包括新加坡益海粮油集团、美国邦基公司、美国嘉吉公司和法国路易.达夫公司。上述公司利用其全球化的布局和多元化经营模式,形成了从主要出口国的生产、收购、物流,到我国的加工、物流、营销的产业经营链条。根据国家粮油信息中心监测,到2009年底,外资企业、外资控股企业及外资租用企业拥有的大豆压榨能力,占到了国内大豆压榨生产能力的37.7%,实际加工量已经接近大豆加工量的50%,已在竞争中处于优势地位;三是进口依存度明显提高。由于国产油料榨油量不断下降,食用油以及油料进口数量快速增长。2000年度我国油脂进口量为206万吨,到2010年度预计达到965万吨。累计增长368.4%,年均增长16.7%。同期,进口大豆的数量从1300万吨增长到5400万吨,累计315.4%,年均增长15.3%。进口依存度已经从2000年度的38%提高到2010年度的66%。众多机构和学者的研究表明:目前我国的食用油市场已经处于不安全的状态。本文试从国内植物油加工业的现状着手,对大宗油脂产品的供需状况和国内主要大型油脂加工企业(集团)的发展与布局进行分析,结合未来我国植物油消费的趋势,提出适应国内形势的植物油发展道路。全文共分五个部分。第一部分是国内国际油脂市场基本情况介绍。我国是油脂生产和消费大国。在过去几十年中,国内油脂加工业取得了重大进展,油脂产量不断增加,油脂消费水平持续增长,油脂产品种类不断丰富,油脂储备结构不断完善。但是在发展过程中也出现了一系列的问题,较为突出的是国内油脂消费刚性增长与国内油料供给长期不足的问题,油脂加工产能过剩与优质产能不足的问题,外资油脂加工市场占有率高与内资发展相对不足的问题等。在本节中,较为全面的对国内油脂加工业的发展现状、面临的形势和未来的发展趋势进行了分析和研究。由于我国未来较长一段时间在油脂供应环节,仍将维持高进口的态势,因此对当前国际油脂油料市场的供需形势有一概括性了解就很有必要。本节也专题研究了现阶段国际市场主要油脂产品豆油、棕榈油和菜籽油的生产、消费和贸易状况,并指出棕榈油已经取代豆油,成为全球最重要的油脂消费和贸易产品。第二部分是国内核心油脂加工企业研究。过去几年国内油脂市场的焦点问题之一是外资占有率高。有鉴于此,本节重点对国内核心的内资和外资企业的加工布局、主要产品进行了分析和研究,并根据研究获得的一般性结论,提出了国内内资油脂加工企业未来发展的基本方向,即加快整合、做大做强,积极实施走出去战略、扩大原料来源,打造产业链和强化品牌意识等。第三部分对国内大豆油、菜籽油、棕榈油和其他小品种油脂的加工布局、消费现状、存在的问题与未来发展的方向等进行了详细的分析和研究。指出豆油、菜籽油和棕榈油仍是未来一段时间国内油脂主要供给和消费品种,但是我们应积极利用国内的米糠、玉米胚芽和油茶等资源,积极发展米糠油、玉米油和茶树油,努力提高国产油料产油量,降低进口依存度。第四部分是运用模型分析了国内主要油料大豆和油菜籽的全要素生产率(TFP),指出由于农业生产扶持政策未能与市场需求相适应,使得我国大豆和油菜籽的全要素生产率在过去30年中无明显改善。由于资源短缺对油料生产的约束在未来仍会持续增强,因此在国内全要素生产率无显著提高的情况下,通过进口弥补国内供给不足将是一个不得不实施的选择。第五部分是政策建议。根据前面的研究,提出了发展国内油料作物生产、提高自给能力,完善进出口调节机制、增强国内油脂安全,支持国内企业走出去、充分利用国外资源,完善储备制度、增强政府市场调控能力,和规范外商投资管理,营造健康发展环境等8条政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Vegetable oil is one of the most important daily necessities for Chinese, whose changes in quantity and quality can, to some extent, reflect the level of social and economic development. China used to be a traditional producer of vegetable oils. Domestic demand and supply had been balanced for a long period of time after the establishment of New China. But since mid-1990s, especially in the 21st century, with the rapid development of China’s economy and rising incomes and consumption, people have increased their needs for high-quality food products, including edible oils, which therefore have stimulated the development of vegetable oil industry. However, in the meanwhile, supply of domestic edible oils is unable to meet growing consumption, which has also spurred imports. Since the late 90s of last century, China has become a net importer of oils and fats (including oils crushed from imported oilseeds).The rapid growth of imports has played an important role in covering domestic deficit, particularly given serious shortage of arable land and water resources which have limited China’s own agriculture production. Imports of farm products, in other words, mean we have brought in land and water resources. However, what we can’t ignore is the impact of imports on China’s own production and its relevant industry. First, imports have affected China’s own production of oilseeds. With import volumes bigger and bigger every year since 2000, China’s own acreage under three major oilseeds have started to decrease. During 2001 to 2005, the acreage maintained at about 31 million hectares, but from 2006 to 2007, the acreage had decreased sharply due to lower returns. Secondly, foreign companies have expanded their processing capacities rapidly and have monopolized the market. Attracted by huge demand in China, international grain giants, such as the Singapore-based Wilmar International (Yihai Kerry), U.S-based Bunge and Cargill and French firm, Louis Dreyfus, have set up their plants in China. These companies, by taking advantage of their global distribution and diversified business, have set up industry chains from production, purchases to logistics not only in major exporting countries, but also chains of processing, logistics and marketing in China. Data from the National Grain and Oils Information Center showed, by end-2009, foreign-funded plants owned 37.7% of China’s soy processing capacity, with actual operating capacity close to 50%, which enjoy a dominant position in the industry. Thirdly, China is more and more relying on imports. With domestic oilseeds output declining, imports of edible oils and oilseeds have increased rapidly. China’s edible oils imports rose to 9.65 million tons in 2010, up 368.4 percent from 2.06 million tons in 2000, with an average growth of 16.7 percent a year over the past decade. During the same period, soybean imports rose to 54 million tons from 13 million tons, a rise of 315.4 percent or an annual average growth of 15.3 percent. China’s reliance over imports has increased to 66 percent in 2010 from 38% in 2000. Studies by some institutions and experts showed that China’s own supply of edible oils currently could not safely meet its demand. Based on current status of domestic processing industry and its geographic locations of some major players, coupled with China’s future consumption patterns, the paper offers solutions to China’s vegetable oil market development, which will be elaborated in five parts.PartⅠThis part briefs domestic and international oils and oilseeds markets. China is a major producer and consumer of edible oils and oilseeds. Over past decades, domestic oilseeds crushing industry has made significant progress, which has increased edible oil supplies, with more varieties of products offered to the market. Domestic oil reserves have also seen constant increase. But during this process of de velopment, a series of problems also occur, some outstanding issues regard to long-term shortages of oil supply due to rigid domestic consumption growth; efficient capacity out of excessive overall crushing capacity and higher market share by foreign companies as compared with relative low market share of China’s own companies. All these issues will be discussed in this section. Meanwhile, a comprehensive analysis is provided on current status of domestic oil processing industry and trends of development.China, over a longer period of time, has to rely over imports. A good understanding of supply and demand situation globally is also necessary. This section will discuss issues in relation to current global production, consumption and trade of major oil products, including soy oil, palm oil and rapeseed oil. Palm oil has replaced soy oil and becomes the world’s most important edible oil in terms of consumption and traded product.PartⅡThis part focuses on some key crushers. Over past years, a majority of market share goes to foreign-funded crushers. This session will look into geographic locations of some of these major players. A proposal is made on the potential development of domestic-funded firms and restructuring of these plants so to make their brands known to the market. Expansion of more sources of raw materials and strategy to invest abroad will also be discussed in the session.PartⅢThe session covers locations of some key players as well as consumptions and existing problems and potential development regarding to productions of soy oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil and other edible oils. Soyoil, rapeseed oil and palm oil would be the main sources of cooking oil for domestic market for some time in future while edible oils extracted from rice bran, corn and other raw materials shall be fully utilized to increase domestic production to reduce import needs.PartⅣModel analysis has been applied in the study of total-factor productivity (TFP) in China’s soybean and rapeseed production. China’s farm-aided policies, which fail to follow the pace of demand growth, offer no significant inputs in total-factor productivity of soybean and rapeseed production over last 30 years. Given China’s escalating resources constrain, no major inputs are foreseen in total-factor production. Imports would become a“must”choice for China in covering its deficit. PartⅤThe last part is on policy recommendations. Based on the studies, policies are recommended regarding to how to develop China’s own oil crops, how to raise self-sufficiency, how to control market via import and export mechanism as well as supply security. Policy support shall be offered to Chinese companies investing overseas to make full use of resources overseas; Suggestions as how to improve state reserve system and government regulatory capabilities and how to guide foreign investment in the industry and how the industry would develop at a healthy environment are also proposed.更多还原