【作者】 孙宁；

【导师】 李廉水；

【作者基本信息】 南京信息工程大学 ， 气象学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 随着全球气候变化愈演愈烈,气候变化的经济影响研究渐成学界热点。本文的研究聚焦在气候变化对制造业的经济影响上面,试图将气候变化的经济影响研究推进到行业层面、同时将制造业的研究拓展到气候变化层面。考虑到气候变化因子影响的局地性,本文基本上以南京制造业为主要研究对象,以计量和数理经济学理论和方法为主要研究手段,重点探讨气候变化对制造业的直接经济影响和间接政策影响。气候变化对制造业的直接经济影响主要是评估典型气候变化因子(气温和降水)对制造业的影响程度。本文采用协整理论和C-D生产函数模型研究气候变化因子对制造业经济的静态影响,反映了气候变化因子对制造业经济的总体平均影响程度,尤其揭示了气候变暖与制造业经济发展之间的相互促进关系；接着本文运用脉冲响应函数和变参数模型研究气候变化因子对制造业经济的动态影响,主要刻画气候变化因子对制造业经济影响的时序变化态势；最后本文进一步以超越对数生产函数模型为基础,深入研究气候变化因子对制造业经济的综合影响。根据模型得出的气候变化因子的边际产出弹性,可以同时得到气候变化因子对制造业经济的静态和动态影响。本文的这些研究不仅揭示了气候变化因子影响制造业经济的基本规律,同时丰富并拓展了该领域的研究方法。气候变化对制造业的间接政策影响主要是研究制造业面临的气候变化引起的碳减排问题。本文在厘清气候变化、碳减排和制造业经济三者关系的基础上,指出该问题的核心是如何解决好碳减排约束下制造业经济的可持续发展问题；接着本文以碳排放总量约束为前提,在新古典经济增长理论框架内论证了碳减排对经济增长的约束效应。并从理论和实证两方面论证了技术进步是解决制造业经济发展碳减排约束作用的根本途径；进一步的,本文以碳排放存量约束为前提,依据最优化模型分析了碳减排对经济增长的约束效应,同时为了探究解决上述矛盾的途径,引入了不同于技术进步的另一个重要非物质生产性要素——“人力资本”,并分别依据卢卡斯内生经济增长理论和STIRPAT模型进行人力资本碳减排效应的理论和实证研究,从而充分证明了人力资本建设是制造业解决气候变化引起的碳减排问题的有效途径。最后本文依据研究结论,在适应和遏止气候变化趋势这两个层面上阐述了制造业应对气候变化的相关政策建议。围绕制造业适应气候变化,本文归纳出“加强防范气候变化非平均态的影响”、“高度重视降水对制造业的负面影响”、“采取措施消减局地气候变暖的倾向”这三大层面的政策建议；围绕制造业遏止气候变化,本文提出“通过技术进步引领制造业无悔减排”、“依靠人力资本建设促进制造业减排”、“引入碳交易机制实现合作减排模式”这三大层面的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With intensified global climate change, economic impact study of climate change had become the academic focus. This paper focused on the economic impact of the manufacturing sector due to climate change, and try to put the relevant research about economic impact of climate change into industry field while promoting the manufacturing study into climate change field. Considering the influence of cimate change is regional, so Nanjing manufacturing was taken to be the main study object. Econometrical and mathematical economic theory and methods were used to discuss the direct and indirect economic impact of climate change on manufacturing.The direct economic impact of climate change on the manufacturing sector was to assess the influence of typical climatic factors (temperature and precipitation). In this paper, cointegration theory and C-D production function model were used to evaluate the static economic impact of climate change on manufacturing which showed the total average affect of climatic factors. And the mutual promotion relationship between global warming and manufacturing development were given out; Then, the impulse response function and variable parameter model were adopted to evaluate the dynamic economic impact of climate change on manufacturing. The changing trend of influences of climate change on manufacturing economy was discussed; Finally, on the basic of Trans-Log Production Function, the integrative influence of climatic factors on manufacturing economy was studied. The boundary productivity of climatic factors, the static and dynamic impacts can be got at the same time. This study not only revealed the basic rules of these climatic factors affecting manufacturing economy, but also enriching and expanding the study methods in this research area.Carbon reduction is the main indirect political impact of climate change on manufacturing. And the key issue was how to keep manufacturing developing under the restriction of carbon reduction; So, to take the restrition of total carbon emission as a precondition, the restrictive effect of carbon reduction to economic progress was analysed through neoclassical growth theory. And the fundamental approach was technique progress which had been proved by theory and demonstration in this paper. Further, we also adoptted optimization theary to study the restrictive effect of carbon reduction to economic progress taking the the restrition of accumulated carbon emission as a precondition. For solving the problem, human capital was introduced as an important immateriality productional factor. Then, the theoretically and empirical research were taken by Lucas endogenous growth theory and STIRPAT model. The outcome showed that building human capital was an effective way to solve the problem of carbon reduction of manufacturing caused by climate change.Finally, according to the research conclusions, some adapting and mitigation propsals of climate change were been discussed. Focus on adapting propsals, we can "enhancing keeping away the influence of non average state of climate change", "taking care of the negative impact of precipitation on manufacturing" and "taking measures to reduce the tendency of local climate warming"; Arround the mitigation propsals, we can "depending technic progress to carry out no regrets carbon reduction", "promoting manufacturing carbon reduction through human capital accumulating" and "implementing the cooperating mode of carbon reduction on basic of carbon trading mechanism".更多还原