【作者】 高鸿；

【导师】 任碧云；

【作者基本信息】 天津财经大学 ， 金融学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 当前,货币流动性管理问题已经成为我国金融宏观调控的核心问题,从货币流动性管理效应角度看,中国货币流动性管理要考虑与经济增长、资产价格以及经济周期的协调；从货币流动性管理工具运用角度来看,中国货币流动性管理要考虑流动性控制的有效性；同时,在经济全球化环境中,还要考虑货币流动性管理与工具运用的前瞻性问题,以及与国际金融体系协调运行的问题。然而,目前我国货币流动性管理面临的挑战和压力日益增多,不确定性不断加大,特别是如何有效管理和调节巨额货币流动性,成为当前我国货币流动性管理过程中亟待解决的重要问题。本文在现代货币金融理论的指导下,以中国货币流动性运行状况为研究对象,运用理论分析方法、实证分析方法、比较分析方法等研究方法,探究如何加强货币流动性的管理及其管理工具的运用,进一步深化了已有研究成果的理论和实证研究空间,具有一定的理论价值和现实意义。本文以“强化中国货币流动性管理效应和管理工具运用”作为研究主线,分六章展开论述：第一章是导论部分,重点阐述研究目的与研究意义,同时说明国内外的研究概况、研究内容与结构框架,提出本文创新之处。第二章是基本概念和理论支撑部分。主要在明晰流动性含义的基础上,对货币流动性及其管理效应的概念以及相关理论进行梳理。第三章是中国货币流动性结构与规模分析。首先对中国货币流动性管理过程进行历史回顾,进而对中国巨量货币流动性原因进行分析,全球流动性状况进行分析,总结主要发达国家货币流动性特点。第四章是中国货币流动性管理效应分析。对当前中国货币流动性与资产价格之间关系、中国货币流动性与经济增长之间关系、中国货币流动性与经济周期之间的关系予以实证分析。通过向量自回归模型详细分析了对代表流动性的货币指标、金融机构贷款总额、代表通胀情况的CPI、代表资产价格等变量,辨明各变量之间的相关性和Granger因果关系。分析表明：资产价格指数与金融机构信贷总量都有双向因果关系,货币供给和信贷规模都与股市和房地产等资产价格有很大的相关性。所以盯住货币供应量和新增贷款量,相机抉择调控流动性供给仍然是现阶段我国中央银行的理性选择。第五章是中国货币流动性控制工具效果的分析。主要围绕我国流动性管理工具的有效性分析,涵盖公开市场操作、法定存款准备金利率政策等方面。第六章是中国货币流动性管理与控制的现实选择。针对当前中国货币流动性管理面临的问题,对社会融资总规模指标构建进行探讨,并提出具体政策建议。主要是强化中国人民银行作为货币当局在管理货币流动性方面的作用,确立以M2和社会融资总规模并重的流动性管理模式,加快推进逆周期宏观审慎管理框架。本文从经济金融协调发展的思路出发,围绕中国货币流动性管理效应以及管理工具的运用展开分析,认为目前中国货币流动性管理的范围还比较狭窄,货币流动性管理工具的有效性有待进一步提高,为此,应当拓宽货币流动性管理范围,监控并调节社会融资总规模,不断完善中国货币流动性管理的目标体系和运行机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, the management of monetary liquidity has become a core issue in China’s financial macro-control. In the environment of economic globalization, China’s currency liquidity management should comply with the requirements of economic development, assets price and economic cycle. From the using perspective of the Chinese monetary liquidity management tools, it should be considered not only the efficiency of the monetary management control, but also reflect the requirements of the ultimate goal of monetary policy, and consider the forward-looking and problems of coordinated operation with the international financial. However, China’s currency liquidity management faces increasing challenges and pressures, uncertainty is growing, especially how to effectively manage and regulate the huge amount of currency liquidity become the important issue demanding prompt solution in the process of China’s currency liquidity management.Under the guidance of modern monetary and financial theories, this paper chooses the situation of China’s currency liquidity as the research object, using theoretical analysis, empirical analysis, comparative analysis and other methods to explore how to enhance the liquidity management and the use of management tools, and expanding the space of existing research theory and the empirical research, which have certain theoretical and practical significance.This paper studies "strengthening effectiveness of China’s currency liquidity management and the use of management tools" as the main line, and is divided into six chapters to start discussion:The first chapter is an introduction, focusing on the purpose and significance of the research. While, shows an overview, contents and framework on this research in domestic and international, and then proposes the innovation of this paper.ChapterⅡis the basic concepts and theory support part. Mainly studies the concept and theories of currency liquidity and its management effectiveness on the base of clarifying the meaning of liquidity.ChapterⅢanalyses the scale and structure of China’s currency liquidity. First give a historical review to the process of China’s currency liquidity management, then analyses the reasons of the huge amount currency liquidity in China and situations of the global liquidity, and summarizes characteristics of currency liquidity in major developed countries.Chapter IV is the analysis of China currency liquidity management effect. Empirically analyzes the relationship between China currency liquidity, asset prices, economic growth and the economy cycle. Gives a detailed analysis of each VaRiable by the VAR model, includes currency indicators, total loans of financial institutions liquidity, CPI on behalf of inflation, stock market and real estate price on behalf of asset prices and other VaRiables, identifying the correlation between each VaRiable and the Granger causality. Analyses show that asset price index has a two-way causal with the total loans of financial institutions and M1; the scales of the money supply and credit have great relevance with the asset price like stock market and real estate price. So giving close watch and controlling the multiple intermediate target of monetary policy and discretionarily controlling the supply of liquidity may well be a rational choice of China central bank at this stage.The fifth chapter analyzes the effectiveness of China’s liquidity management tools, including the open market operations, required reserve interest and rate policy etc.Chapter VI is about the realistic choices of China’s currency liquidity management and control. For the current problems of China’s currency liquidity management, discusses constructing indicator of the total scale of the social financing, and put forward policy recommendations. It is mainly about strengthening the role the PBC as the monetary authority plays in the currency liquidity management, establishing the liquidity management mode that both M2 and the total scale of the social financing social are important, and accelerating the framework of counter-cyclical macro-prudential management.This paper develops analysis from the coordinated development of the economic, focusing on the effect and tool usage of Chinese currency liquidity management, and draws a conclusion that the range of Chinese monetary liquidity management is still relatively narrow and the effectiveness of monetary liquidity management tool should be further improved. Therefore, the range of Chinese monetary liquidity management should be broadened, and the total scale of social financing should be supervised and regulated, constantly perfecting Chinese currency liquidity management target system and operation mechanism.更多还原