【作者】 倪春迪；

【导师】 罗传文；

【作者基本信息】 东北林业大学 ， 森林经理学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 气候是影响植被格局的主要因素,也是影响植被适应性和林木产量的主要因素,因此对于很好的理解气候与植被之间的关系,制定明确有效的林业规划,物种的保护以及物种延续,是至关重要的。本文对中国东北地区未来气候情景及植被格局进行研究。研究主要内容包括三个部分：1) ClimateC软件的建立,全球气候模式(GCM)预估大尺度未来全球气候变化,是目前最重要也是最可行的方法,能很好地模拟出大尺度最重要的平均特征,但由于目前GCM输出的空间分辨率较低,很难对区域气候情景做详细的预测。ClimateC软件其实现的主要功能为对已有的大尺度数据进行转换,以达到提高空间分辨率的目的。对于任一点的位置,指定的经度、纬度和高程,计算出该点的变量,进行分析验证。通过对高程的调整,解决了多山区温差较大的问题。有效的计算出自由尺度的气候数据。研究表明,在气候发生变化时,高程值越高,温度越低。高程对温度的影响相对较大,对降水量影响较小。东北地区的温度到2080年,呈现递增趋势。年降水量到2020在减少,到2050年有所增加,但整体来看,到2080年呈现下降趋势。2)植被格局研究阶段,通过”3S”技术,参照中国植被图提供的落叶松树种现实分布图提取出植被信息,对其进行校正、矢量化、投影等变换操作；沿分布区边界等距间隔设置305个查询点,即为树种的理论分布点,并且准确地计算出查出各点的经度、纬度值,通过ClimateC软件获得各点的气候及高程高度等指标数值,生成当前气候条件下的该树种地理分布图。3)利用相同的地理参数区间,通过Matlab软件对于树种的理论分布边界和气侯要素之间的关系进行BP神经网络建模,并且仿真出落叶松当前理论分布。根据ClimateC计算出的B2情境下2030年、2050年、2080年气候数据,带入前面构建的BP神经网络模型中,仿真出2030年、2050年、2080年该树种地理分布变化图；将当前气候条件下的落叶松林地理分布图与2030年、2050年、2080年的落叶松林地理分布图叠加,生成气候变化影响下的落叶松林地理分布区域变化图。通过SPSS软件评估气候变化对落叶松分布区域的影响。可知随着气候发生变化,东北落叶松林水平分布带将有北移的趋势,我国适宜落叶松林分布的面积将有所减少。更多还原

【Abstract】 Climate is one of the main factors to affect the Vegetation pattern, but also the main factors to affect vegetation adaptability and trees yield, so Its important to understanding of the relationship between climate and vegetation in formulation explicit effective forestry planning, species protection and species continuance. future climate scenario and Vegetation Pattern in the northeast of China were studied.Research mainly includes three parts:1) ClimateC software, ClimateC software, the establishment of a global climate model (GCM) forecast future large-scale global climate change, is the most important and most feasible method, can simulate the large-scale average of the most important features, but due to the current GCM output spatial resolution, regional climate scenarios difficult to forecast in detail. ClimateC software, its main function is greatly on the existing scale data conversion, in order to achieve the purpose of improving spatial resolution. For the location of any point, the specified longitude, latitude and elevation, to calculate the variables that point, the analysis verified. Through the adjustment of elevation to solve the problem of large temperature difference between multi-mountain. Calculate the effective scale-free climate data. The results show that changes in climate, elevation higher the value, the lower the temperature. Elevation of temperature is relatively large, less impact on precipitation. The temperature in Northeast China by 2080, showing an increasing trend. Annual precipitation in 2020 reduced the increase in 2050, but overall, downward trend in 2080.2) Vegetation pattern research stage, through the "3S" technology, according to the Chinese vegetation maps provided by the reality of larch trees remove vegetation information, its correction, vector, projection and other transformations:equidistant intervals along the boundary of the distribution 305 check points set up, namely, the theory of species distribution points, and accurately identify the points calculated longitude, latitude values, obtained by ClimateC software, climate and elevation of each point height values of the indicators, generated under the current climatic conditions The geographical distribution of species.3) The use of the geographical parameters of the same interval, through the Matlab software, the theory for the distribution of species boundaries and relationships between climate factors BP neural network modeling and simulation of the current theoretical distribution of larch. B2 ClimateC calculated according to context 2030, 2050,2080, climate data, built into the front of the BP neural network model, the simulation out of 2030,2050,2080, the geographical distribution of species changes in the map; the current climate larch forest under the conditions of the geographical distribution and the 2030, 2050,2080 Geographical Distribution of Larix overlay, generated under the influence of climate change, the change in geographic distribution of larch forest map. By SPSS software to assess climate change on the distribution area of larch. Known as climate change, with the horizontal distribution of Larix in Northeast will be the tendency, distribution of larch suitable area will be reduced.更多还原