【作者】 Karunarathne；

【导师】 曹阳；

【作者基本信息】 华中师范大学 ， 政府经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 对任何国家来说,资本市场是一个形成投资并促其发展的组织,它对资本的形成起着至关重要的作用,而资本则是经济发展不可或缺的重要组成部分。大部分国家认同并肯定一个活跃且高效的资本市场对其经济发展的推动作用,因而采取了许多技术和方法以促进其进步和发展,尤其是发展中国家,他们十分重视资本市场的发展以及投资者的信息需求。另一方面,投资者迅速而理性的决策有助于提升资本市场的活跃度,换言之,投资者的长期抑或短期决策行为都将对资本市场的发展产生巨大影响。因此,对世界任何股市而言,信息都是鼓励和刺激国内外投资者进行投资的关键因素。信息供给者包括：公司、政府、监管机构以及其他相关组织,他们提供的信息可粗略分为：特定公司的微观信息和整体性的宏观信息,前者的会计信息是股市投资者的主要决策信息源。因此,就理性决策而言,会计信息系统的质量取决于该系统所提供的可靠信息的总量。因此,公司通过财务报表向外公布自身的经营信息,投资者是该报表的主要使用者(Penman,2001, p.2)。相应地,财务报表必须遵循一些质量标准以向其股东和公众提供相关且有价值的信息,其中关联性、可比性和可理解性是财务报表质量标准的关键要素。自20世纪70年代末以来,国际财务会计准则制定机构开始关注当前和潜在的投资者,并将其视为主要的会计信息使用者(FASB,1978)。随着世界上不同市场的资本国际流动壁垒逐渐消除,过去十年里,统一会计制度和准则的重要意义也逐渐得以凸显。因此,提高财务报告的相关性,改进财务报告的质量,发展财务报告的可比性已成为《国际财务报告准则》的主要追求目标(Cormier and Magan,2010, p.2)。据此,基于资本市场指数与财务报表之间关系的经验研究在理论界和实务界大行其道。在此背景下,此领域的研究逐渐发展为独立的学科门类,亦即“基于资本市场的会计研究”(Capital Market Based Accounting Research)。换言之,世界各地的许多理论和应用研究者在该领域做了大量有价值的研究,尤其是基于股市发展方面的研究。价值相关性研究主要是从股权投资者的视角评估会计信息的价值。在斯里兰卡,虽然信息内容被政府和其他管理部门,例如斯里兰卡注册会计师协会所监管,但考虑到决策信息需具备相关性和有用性等条件,则信息需求方——投资者和信息供给者之间仍然存在冲突。然而,财务报表、会计和财务处理手段的有效性依赖于资本市场中所提供的有利可图信息的应用水平。本论文致力于研究会计师和投资者对会计与财务信息价值相关性不同看法所导致的冲突。本论文的主要目的是考察信息的相关性,尤其是会计信息的相关性,使用的方法有两种：其一是经验研究方法,亦即利用计量方法分析会计信息和资料在多大程度上影响了股票的市场价值(或回报)；方法之二是问卷和访谈调查法,旨在直接统计调查对象共识性观点的比例、会计信息的使用情况以及其他投资相关信息。本研究初步回答了以下问题：在斯里兰卡,会计和财务信息是如何影响股票的市场价值的?投资者使用的财务报表中哪些项目和指标是重要的?本研究的二手数据来自于科伦坡证券交易所(CSE)的70家上市公司,用以分析会计信息的价值相关性。本研究通过查阅科伦坡证券交易所上市公司的年度报表,搜集会计信息和资料,它们主要包括财务收支状况,现金流和账面值(BV),以及度量经济增加值(EVA)和市场增加值(MVA)的相关指标和数据。同时,本文也从科伦坡证券交易所的各类报告和网站上搜集了股市价格以及其他相关信息。另外,本研究还调查了投资者的认知和态度以验证经验研究的准确性。为此,本研究对255个投资者和34位投资咨询师以及经纪人进行了问卷调查,搜集了详实的微观数据。除此之外,本研究还对股市投资者、经纪人和股市工作人员进行了数次深度访谈。本研究利用普通最小二乘回归法(OLS)分析了会计和财务信息的价值相关性,同时还利用相关系数法计算了各变量之间的关联度。研究选取了每股收益(EPS),运营现金流(OCF),账面值(BV),经济增加值(EVA)和市场增加值(MVA)作为主要的自变量。而且,本研究所应用的方法,无论是在探究会计信息的价格模型,还是收益模型,都与Easton and Hariris (1991)和Ohlson(1995)的研究相一致。研究结果表明,每股收益(EPS)对股票价值具有止向影响,且显著性最高。营业收入、账面价值(BV)、市场增加值(MVA)对股票价值也具有显著正向影响,但影响力要弱于每股收益。考虑到回归结果,价格模型估计的表现更佳。价格模型显示,40%的股票价格变异能被若干会计信息所解释,它们是：营业收入、账面价值(BV)、投资活动产生的现金流(ICF)以及融资活动产生的现金流(FCF)。另一方面,现代价值度量方法,包括EVA和MVA仅解释了大约2%的股票价格变异。但是,如果将传统和现代的价值计量方法结合起来分析,则股票价格模型的解释力大为增强,此研究结论与既有文献结论保持一致(Biddle, Bowen, and Wallace,1997; Farsio et al.,2000; and Khalid,2001 Abuzar Kyriazis and Anastassis 2007)。将以上结论与问卷调查数据进行对比分析时可以发现,绝大数投资者使用了诸如每股收益、税后利润以及价格收益比等会计信息以资决策,这与模型的回归结果基本保持一致。根据问卷调查结果,在股市投资决策中,最有价值的信息是公司层面的微观财务信息(97.6%)。甚至是在投资者对会计信息持批评态度情况下,例如,会计信息公布不及时,报表精确性值得怀疑,报表格式不统一,但他们仍会使用公司信息来做决策。投资者共识性观点排在第二位的是,人们普遍渴求和平和公平的交易环境,尤其是在30年的灾难性内战之后。影响投资者决策且排在第三位的因素是国家的政治稳定性。除此之外,经纪人的推荐,行业趋势以及公司的信息质量也是股市投资决策的补充变量。分别考察宏观层而因素可以发现,和平状况以及股市趋势是人们在众多的投资机会中进行选择的最为重要的影响因素。另一方面,考虑公司层面的财务信息,每股收益仍是投资者最为关注的绩效指标。投资决策过程中扮演次要角色的公司微观信息是价格收益率指标。根据经纪人的解释,价格收益率在股市中被广泛用于度量投资回收率。影响投资者决策的因素中排在第三位的公司信息是其新公告。除此之外,财务报表中的每股红利、税后利润也是决策时的重要参考变量。然而,经济增加值(EVA)和市场增加值(MVA)等概念在投资者中并不受欢迎,这不仅在问卷调查中,也在与投资者和经纪人的访谈中得到印证。但是,51%的投资者使用科伦坡证券交易所的官方网站搜集信息,而使用公司网站获取信息的比例却不足20%。研究发现,科伦坡证券交易所提供的资料中最受欢迎的是其每周简报。除此之外,每日价格指数以及市场公告也是富有价值的信息。但是,经济增加值(EVA)和市场增加值(MVA)等资料并未在科伦坡股市交易所投资者中普遍接受。结果表明,将传统会计信息和现代价值计量方法结合使用是极为重要的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Capital markets have become one of the main organizational setup of investment for the development of every economy. It contributes a lot on capital formation which is one of the most essential parts of economic development. Most economies identify the requirement of active and efficient capital market and use different techniques and methods to upgrade and develop it. Due to this reason, especially developing countries concern much about the capital market development and information requirements of investors. On the other hand, Investors’ quick and rational decisions will increase the liveliness of market. In other words, the development of the capital market mainly influence by investors and their long term and short term decision behavior. Hence information has become very much essential factor for encouraging and stimulating foreign as well as domestic investors in any stock markets in the world. Mainly information is provided by various organizations such as, individual companies, Government, regulatory authorities, and other organizations. Information provided by these organizations can be broadly categorized as firm specific information and macro-level information. Among them, firm specific accounting information is one of the main investment related information source to the stock market investors. Consequently, the quality of accounting information system depends on the amount of reliable information provided by the system for the rational decision making. Thus, the financial statements are the main information that firms publish about themselves, and investors are primary users of financial statements (Penman,2001, p.2). Accordingly, the financial reporting is followed the different types of major qualitative characteristics to provide relevant and useful information for shareholders of the organization. Relevance, comparability and understandability are identified as key quality requirements of financial reporting. In the mean time, international level financial accounting standards setting bodies have devoted their attention on the present and potential investors as key information users since late 1970s(FASB, 1978). With removing the barrier for international capital mobilization among different capital markets in the world, the common accounting system and standards are become significant during the last decade. Consequently, enhancing the relevance of financial statements, improving the quality of financial reporting and facilitating comparability are major stated objectives of International Financial Reporting Standards (Cormier and Magan,2010, p.2).Due to this emphasis, the empirical researches on the association between capital market indicators and the financial statements are much popular among academics and professionals. In present context, this area of research is separately developed as the Capital Market Based Accounting Research (CMBAR). In other words, many value relevance studies have been conducted by many academic and professional researchers in the world, especially on the basis of developed stock markets. The value relevance research measure the usefulness of accounting information from perspective of equity investors (Beisland,2009).In the Sri Lankan context, although the content of information is regulated by the Government and the other various authorities like Institute of Chartered Accountants of Sri Lanka (ICASL), still there is a dilemma with the investors as well as information providers regarding the relevance and usefulness of the information for decision making. However, the validity of information in financial statements, accounting and financial measures depends on the level of applicability of those information for profitable investment decision in the capital markets.This thesis mainly address the dilemma between the accountants view point and investors view point on value relevance of accounting and financial information. The primary purpose of this thesis is to investigate the relevance of information especially accounting information under two different approaches. One is empirically testing of how much accounting based information and measures affect to the market value/returns of equity using quantitative approach. Second is the structured questionnaires and interview based investigation to identify the real consensus beliefs and use of accounting and other investment related information. This study provides answers for how accounting and finance information affect market value of equity in the Sri Lankan context and the important elements or line items of the financial statements which use by the investors.The secondary data for testing the value relevance of accounting information were collected from 70 listed companies in the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE). The study collected accounting based information and measures through the annual reports of individual companies listed in the CSE. It mainly comprised earnings, cash flows, book value (BV), and other related data to measure the Economic Value Added (EVA) and Market Value Added (MVA) measures. In parallel, stock prices and other stock market related information were gathered from the CSE reports and the CSE web. On the other hand, the study tries to confirm the validity of quantitative results of the study by conducting surveying the opinion of the investors. Hence, the study collected data from 255 investors and 34 investment consultants and brokers, using a well structured questionnaire. In addition to the questionnaire, the study handles a number of interviews with stock market investors, brokers and stock market officials.The study employed the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression model for testing the value relevance of the accounting and financial information and also correlation coefficient employs for measuring the relationship among the variables. The study identified Earnings per share (EPS), Operating Cash flows (OCF), Book values (BV), EVA and MVA as the main independent variables. Further the methodology of the study applied, both price and return models for determining the value relevance of accounting based information, is in consistent with Easton and Hariris (1991), and Ohlson(1995).The results of the study show that EPS is the most significantly and positively correlated variable with respect to the equity value. In addition to that, operating earnings (OE), BV and MVA are also correlated significantly with equity value but it can be seen weaker positive relationship than that of EPS. When considering regression results, price model shows better results. Accordingly, it shows that 40 percent of variations of equity prices are explained by overall accounting based information; OE, BV, Investing Cash Flows (ICF), and Financial Cash Flows (FCF). On the other hand, modern value based measures altogether EVA and MVA are explained approximately 2 percent.However, the explanatory power is increased by combining traditional accounting measures together with modern value based measures in explaining equity prices. These findings are in consistent with previous studies (Biddle, Bowen, and Wallace,1997; Farsio et al.,2000; and Khalid, 2001 Abuzar Kyriazis and Anastassis (2007). When comparing the survey results, majority of investors use accounting information such as EPS, Profits after tax(PAT), and Price earnings ratio(PER) for decision making in the stock market which is consistent with the results from regression results.According to the survey results, the most useful information for investment decisions in stock market is the firm specific financial information (97.6%). Even under the comments of investors such as timeliness problem, doubt on accuracy and uncommon format use for preparing financial statements still they mainly use firm specific information for decision making. The second highest consensus was given to the peace and fair condition prevailing in the country after thirty years disastrous civil war.The third important determinant identified by the investors is the political stability of the country. In addition to that, brokers’ recommendations, Industry trends and firms qualitative information are also supplementary important determinants for making investment decisions in the stock market.When considering macro-level factors separately, peace conditions and stock market trend have become most important determinants for selecting investment opportunities among various types of opportunities. On the other hand, when considering the firm specific financial information, EPS is the most popular performance indicator among the investors. The second useful firm specific information for investment decision is the Price Earnings Ratio (PER). According to the brokers comment PER is commonly use as a payback measure in the stock market investment decisions. However, the third important firm specific factor considered by investors is the information regarding new announcement of the company. In addition, Dividend per Share (DPS) and Profit after Tax (PAT) are the other important line items in the financial statements. However, the concepts of EVA and MVA are still not much popular among the investors. It is confirmed both by questionnaire survey as well as from the interviews with the investors and brokers. However,51 percent of investors use official Web site of CSE for information but the number of investors who use individual company’s Wed sites is even less than 20 percents. The study also finds that the most popular information provided by the CSE is the weekly summary. In addition to that daily price lists and stock market announcements are also used as useful information. However, the EVA and MVA measures are not popular among the CSE investors. The outcome of the results shows that the importance of using traditional accounting information with combining modern value based information.更多还原