经济增长中的“比较优势陷阱”分析

【作者】 郭柯；

【导师】 王东京；

【作者基本信息】 中共中央党校 ， 政治经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 经济增长的要素包括自然资源、劳动和资本等。要素禀赋结构决定了一国发展的比较优势。根据比较优势理论,一国产业的发展应该使用其相对丰裕的要素。自然资源丰裕的国家发展资源密集型产业,劳动力丰裕的国家发展劳动密集型产业,资本丰裕的国家发展资本密集型产业,符合比较优势发展战略。但是,多个依据比较优势理论参与国际分工的国家的发展轨迹却与经济学家们的预期大相径庭:许多自然资源丰裕的国家遭受了“资源诅咒”;劳动力资源丰裕的国家在经历了经济短暂的增长之后,却依然深陷“贫困陷阱”;甚至像日本这样一个资本密集的发达国家,也经历着自“泡沫”破灭以来的,长达二十年的经济发展停滞期。按照比较优势发展战略发展的国家有可能在发展的道路上落入“比较优势陷阱”,落入陷阱的原因是什么?为什么有的国家会落入陷阱,有的国家不会?为什么有的落入陷阱的国家能够成功逃离,有的国家却深陷其中,无法自拔?为研究和解决上述问题,本文围绕比较优势陷阱的几种形式,坚持马克思主义的唯物辩证法,采用综合分析方法,比较分析方法、规范与实证的分析方法,从落入陷阱的表现来分析原因,分析是否落入陷阱的条件以及规避或脱离陷阱的措施。第一章主要是国内外经济学界对国际分工和比较优势文献综评,主要介绍和评述国内外学者关于这一问题的研究成果。第二章先从理论和实证两个方面阐述由自然资源形成比较优势对经济增长的贡献。然后论述“资源诅咒”现象,指出“资源诅咒”实质上是由过度使用自然资源要素投入所导致的比较优势陷阱。从荷兰病现象、贸易条件恶化现象、经济体内产品价格和要素价格的变动、资源产业的沉淀成本几个方面来分析“资源诅咒”的形成和作用机理。再从资源产业挤占一国国内制造业,从而造成非资源产业的实物资本积累不足,人力资本的投资不足、产业结构单一、收入分配结构恶化、寻租现象丛生等方面分析“资源诅咒”带来的严重后果。最后分析陷入资源陷阱——“资源诅咒”的原因,从拥有自然资源禀赋却并未落入陷阱的国家的经济政策分析出发,提出自然资源禀赋促进还是制约经济增长的约束条件,提出如何能够成功走出“资源诅咒”导致的比较优势陷阱的途径。第三章指出“人口红利”是劳动带来的比较优势,并对“人口红利”对经济增长的助推作用、人口规模的扩大对经济增长的积极与消极作用、两个“人口红利”期、人口年龄结构与储蓄的关系进行论述。对“人口红利”的逐渐消失与“人口负债”的形成作出分析,并提出“人口诅咒”的假说。提出从“人口红利”到“人口负债”的约束条件,并以此为基础提出应对“人口负债”形成的政策建议。第四章论述资本与经济增长的关系,指出资本积累对经济增长的重要作用。分析资本陷阱——“产业空洞化”,指出对外资本输出不一定产生产业空洞化,利用资本禀赋发展资本密集型产业并进行产业向外转移导致资本优势陷阱的约束条件,并根据对日本的产业空洞化分析具体原因。再以美国为实例,提出应对产业空洞化的具体措施。第五章论述要素市场价格是反映比较优势发展变化的重要指标,要素市场的管制与扭曲会压抑要素禀赋结构的合理变化。提出如何完善要素市场,从而实现比较优势的动态升级,避免对单一一种投入要素的路径依赖,成功脱离陷阱。依赖某种要素禀赋形成比较优势进行国际分工并不一定导致一国经济陷入“比较优势陷阱”,对要素投入的使用存在着某种约束条件,在约束条件之内,比较优势将会带来一国经济的长期动态增长。政府应对要素市场的失衡应该进行帕累托改进,实现要素市场的充分发育,使要素市场价格的变动能够正确反映经济资源的相对稀缺程度,从而使比较优势动态化。比较优势发生变化之前,应该有正确的预测,未雨绸缪,应对变化,对经济体内的主导产业提前进行调整。通过教育培训,推动人力资本的积累,来适应比较优势的动态变化。总体上看,本文有如下创新之处:(一)指出“资源诅咒”、“人口负债”和“产业空洞化”现象实际上都是“比较优势陷阱”的具体表现:一国由于在某种生产要素上具有比较优势,大量使用这种生产要素形成一国的主导产业,但产业在发展过程中对生产要素的投入形成路径依赖,在要素禀赋结构发生变化时,形成要素市场的扭曲,没有变初始的静态比较优势为动态比较优势,从而落入“比较优势陷阱”。(二)今天的“人口红利”可能会是明天的“人口负债”,未来的劳动力负担过重可能会是经济发展停滞甚至倒退,形成类似于“资源诅咒”的“人口诅咒”现象。(三)从要素禀赋结构变化入手,指出要素市场的扭曲和管制是形成“比较优势陷阱”的重要根源,优势产业在其发展过程中形成的路径依赖也会倒逼政府干预要素市场,形成扭曲。然后提出,解决问题的方法在于:减少对要素市场的不必要的干预,让要素价格能够正确反映一个经济体的要素相对稀缺程度,从而实现要素禀赋结构升级,使比较优势动态化,提升经济体内生的技术创新能力,促进人力资本的积累,使其产业结构顺利升级,促进经济的长期、动态、持续发展。由于本人理论水平有限,不能全面的对比较优势的发展变化进行动态分析,本文尚有应进一步完善之处。一是本文的分析侧重于宏观角度,没有对形成陷阱的条件进行微观分析,缺乏微观基础;二是分析方法有欠缺,对比较优势陷阱对经济增长的影响只是从理论角度进行了分析,还不够深入,许多地方需要用数量分析进一步实证检验。更多还原

【Abstract】 Economic growth elements include natural resources, labor and capital. The factor endowments’structure determines the comparative advantage in economic growth. According to the theory of comparative advantage, a country’s industrial development should use its relatively affluent elements. The countries abundant in natural resources should develop resource-intensive industries. The countries abundant in labor should develop labor-intensive industries. The countries abundant in capital should develop capital-intensive industries. This conforms to comparative advantage development strategy. However, the developing tracks of many countries which participate in the international division of labor according to the theory of comparative advantage differ from the economists’anticipation: the countries abundant in natural resources suffer from "natural resources’curse"; the countries abundant in labor are still in "poverty trap" after a short-run economic growth; Even as Japan such a capital intensive developed country, is also in the economic stagnation period over 20 years since the "bubble" bursts. In the development path of development, the countries according to the development strategy of comparative advantage may fall into the comparative advantage trap .what is the reason? Why some countries will fall into trap, some countries won’t? Why can some country falling into the trap succeed in escaping, some countries have fled in mud?To study and solve the above problems, this paper focus on several forms of the comparative advantage trap, adhering to the Marxist materialistic dialectics, adopting comprehensive analysis method, comparative analysis, the standard and the empirical analysis method. According to the performance of falling into trap, this paper analyzes the causes, conditions of being trapped and the measures to avoid or get away from trap.In Chapter 1, the author focuses on domestic and foreign literature review on the international division of labor and comparative advantage. This part mainly introduces and reviews the researching results of the domestic and overseas scholars about this problem. The second chapter first elaborates the economic growth contribution of the comparative advantage formed by natural endowment from both theoretical and empirical views, discusses the phenomenon "resource curse", and points out that the "resource curse" essentially is the comparative advantage trap caused by inputs of excessive use of natural resources. To demonstrate the formation of "resource curse" and mechanism, this part analyzes the Dutch disease theory, deteriorating terms of trade theory, the product prices and elements price changes in an economy, the depositing cost of natural resources’industries. Then, this part introduces the serious consequences caused by the Natural resources’curse, which includes extruding the resources from industry, thus causing the insufficient physical capital accumulation and insufficient manpower capital investment of domestic manufacturing industry, forming the simple industrial structure, worsening the income distribution structure, resulting in rent-seeking phenomenon. In the final analysis of Chapter 2, this paper brings the reason of the Natural resources’curse and from the constraint conditions of economic growth of the countries which having natural resource endowment analyzing the countries’economic policy based on natural resource endowment which promote or restrict economic growth, and puts forward how to run away from the comparative advantage trap caused by the Natural resources’curse. In Chapter 3, the author points out that demographic dividend is the comparative advantage brought by the plenty labor, also a booster for economic growth. Also, this paper discusses the positive and negative effect of the population scale expanding role for economic growth, two demographic dividend periods, and the relationship between population age structure and savings. Then, the author analyzes the gradually disappearing demographic dividend and the formation of demographic debt and proposed demographic curse hypothesis. At last, the author proposes the constraining conditions from demographic dividend to demographic debts, and, on this basis, brings some policy suggestions to deal with the demographic debt. In Chapter 4, the author discusses the relationship between capital and economic growth, and points out that the capital accumulation plays as an important role in economic growth. Analyzing capital trap - "industry hollowing out", says that foreign direct investment doesn’t produce the Industry hollowing out. Then, the author brings the constraining conditions of forming the capital trap in the capital-intensive industrial development with the capital endowment and transferring the industries to overseas. Analyzing the Industry hollowing-out in Japan and the U.S.A, the author concludes the reasons and gives some concrete suggestions to deal with the Industry hollowing-out. In Chapter 5, the author discusses that factors market price is the main index which reflects the changes and development of comparative advantage, and the control and distort of factors’market would depress rational factor endowments structure changes. The author puts forward how to perfect factor market, so as to realize the dynamic comparative advantage, to avoid forming the path dependence of a single factor input and to escape from trap successfully.The last part is to generalize conclusions, and summarizes the main ideas, and puts forward some policy Suggestions. Relying on a king of factor endowments to form comparative advantages of international division of labor does not necessarily lead one country economy into a "comparative advantage trap". Within the constraints, comparative advantage will bring economic activity in the country’s long-term dynamic growth. The government should fulfill the Pareto improvement to avoid factor market imbalances, realize the factor market development, make market price changes can accurately reflects the changes of the structure of economic resources, and thus make the comparative advantage change dynamically. Before comparative advantage change, the government should have the correct prediction and save for a rainy day, cope with change of economy, and adjust the dominant industry body in advance. Through the education training and promoting human capital accumulation, an economy should adapt to the dynamic change of comparative advantage.In general, this paper has the following innovative points:(a) The paper pointed out that "resource curse", "population liability" and "industry hollowing-out" phenomena are really the comparative advantage traps. Because of the comparative advantage in some kind of factor, one country develops a dominant industry by using the factor heavily. In using the factor to product, an economy will form the path dependence, and the factor market will distort, when the structure of the factor endowments changes. The initial static comparative advantage may not turn into the dynamic comparative advantage, thus the economy would fall into the comparative advantage trap.(b) The author point out that today’s demographic dividend may be tomorrow’s demographic debt. The future of the labor burden may result in economic stagnation and even backwards and form the demographic curse similar to the resource curse.(c) Analyzing the change of the structure of factor endowments, the author points out that the distortions and control in the factor market is the reason that an economy forms comparative advantage trap. The dominant industry formed the path dependence in its developing process will also force the government intervene the factor market, thus, make distortions. The methods to solve the problems lies in: reducing unnecessary intervention of the factor market price, letting elements can be correctly reflect the elements of an economy so as to achieve the exiguity factor endowments structure upgrade, making the comparative advantage promote dynamically, forming the technology innovation ability, promoting human capital accumulation and make its industrial structure upgrade smoothly, will fulfill the economic development constantly, dynamically and smoothly.更多还原