中国黄金期货市场功能研究

【作者】 任俊涛；

【导师】 李兴山；

【作者基本信息】 中共中央党校 ， 政治经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 黄金期货市场不仅对黄金现货市场具有重要的导向作用,而且对完善货币市场、外汇市场功能,对提高金融市场国际吸引力,对国民经济的又好又快发展,都具有重大意义。当前,中国黄金期货市场的发展已经进入关键时期,黄金市场体系逐步壮大、完善。然而,中国黄金期货市场还存在一系列重大的理论和现实问题,特别是如何认识并进一步完善中国黄金期货市场的功能,提高其在国际期货市场中的地位,发挥其对国民经济的积极作用,需要进一步研究。本文从期货市场功能的基础理论出发,对国际主要黄金期货市场的形成和发展做了陈述,分析其市场功能表现,总结了功能发挥所具备的关键因素。根据中国当前的政治、经济等社会状况分析了黄金期货市场在中国应该具备的基本功能和衍生功能,并进行了实证分析,探寻了中国黄金期货的功能效率。在此基础之上探寻中国黄金期货市场功能发挥的制约因素,并提出了合理政策建议。第一章导论,介绍论文选题的背景及意义,梳理国内外相关文献并做评述,探寻领域内的未尽事宜,在此基础上,提出主要解决的问题。同时还对本文的结构安排、研究方法和主要创新点进行了简要阐述。第二章回顾并总结了中国黄金期货市场功能研究的基础理论,为整篇文章的论证提供了理论指导。主要对套期保值、价格发现理论产生的经济学原理做了探讨;对黄金期货市场功能效率的检验方法做了分析,为本文研究中国黄金期货市场功能效率做理论铺垫。第三章对国际黄金期货市场功能进行总结。介绍世界主要黄金期货市场,包括美国的纽约商品交易所和芝加哥期货交易所的黄金期货交易、日本的东京工业品交易所的黄金期交易以及巴西期货交易市场,并对各个市场的基本功能和衍生功能进行了简单的概括,认为国际黄金期货市场的基本功能包括套期保值和价格发现功能,衍生功能有投机套利、市场稳定、黄金定价权及信息传递功能;通过比较找出了世界黄金期货市场发展及功能发挥应具备市场经济的充分发展、金融业的高度发达、交易法规的科学健全、信息技术的应用及货币政策的有力保证等条件,为中国黄金期货市场的发展具有重要借鉴作用。第四章从黄金产业发展角度对中国黄金期货市场的基本经济功能和作用进行了系统的理论分析;从黄金市场发展、我国市场经济建设、国家经济安全、全球经济战略发展等角度对中国黄金期货市场的衍生功能及作用做了全面的分析。第五章依托前述理论分析,结合实际,对中国黄金期货市场的功能做实证研究。认为,目前我国黄金期货市场套期保值功能已经发挥,参与者可通过市场降低风险。而价格发现功能尚未明显体现,国内黄金期货价格难以引导现货价格,而国际黄金期货价格对国内影响较大。同时还对中国黄金期货的衍生功能效率做了简要分析,认为,由于基本功能的未充分发挥,很大程度上制约了投机套利、平抑价格和提升中国的世界黄金定价权等衍生功能的有效发挥。第六章对中国黄金期货市场基本功能和衍生功能未充分发挥做了因素分析,认为,主要原因是信息有效性、现货市场、市场监管、参与者结构、基础设施和期货市场规模等方面还存在很大不足之处。第七章为进一步促进中国黄金期货市场功能的发挥提出了的一些政策建议。政策建议涉及到四个方面,具体而言包括现货市场、法律因素、国际合作以及制度创新。认为,现货市场与期货市场相互影响、相互发展、共同促进。应该建立综合型的黄金产业体系类型,加大个人投资者的培育力度,创新市场,拓宽交易渠道,充分发挥商业银行的市场交易主体作用,理顺黄金市场监管体系,加强队伍建设,培育专业的黄金人才,加强财政金融支持力度,从而加大现货市场发展,扩大现货市场规模,为期货市场发展提供根本保障。应该制定期货法,完善黄金期货市场监管体系建设,为市场功能的充分发挥创造良好的环境;中国黄金期货市场是世界黄金期货市场的一部分,功能的充分发挥需要加强国际合作,融入世界,不断的了解规则、分析运用规则,最终参与规则的制定,为中国经济的发展谋取更多的利益;中国黄金期货市场还应该积极引入做市商制度、完善CTA制度,确保市场的健康发展,保障功能的有效发挥。更多还原

【Abstract】 Gold futures market plays an outstanding and important guiding role in perfecting not only sold spot market but also the functions of monetary market and foreign exchange market. It also has great significance in enhancing the international appeal of our country’s financial markets and in enhancing the nice and fast development of the national economy. At present, the development of Chinese gold futures market has entered its crutional period of futures market system composed of futures market and spot market expands steadily. However, there still remains a series of important theoretical and realistic problems to be further researched into, especially the problem of how to comprehend and to further the perfection of the functions of Chinese gold futures market, to enhance the status of it in international futures market, and to fulfill its functions on national economy.On the base of the function theory of the futures market , this paper presentates the formation and the development of the major international gold futures market. And it also analysis the markets function.Morever, it summed up the key factors of the functioning performance. According to Chinese current political, economic and social conditions , the gold futures market in China should have the basic features and derived features. It conducted an empirical analysis to explore the function of Chinese gold futures efficiency. On this basis,this paper explored constraints factors of the of Chinese gold futures market functioning, and devoted a reasonable policy recommendations.The first chapter is esordium. It statements the background and significance of the paper.It summaries and comments on the relevant literature. It provides the main problem on the based of outstanding issues. It also briefly describes the structure of this paper, the main innovation and the research methods.The second chapter reviews and summarizes the basic theory of the function of Chinese gold futures market. It provides a theoretical guidance for the whole paper. It mainly researches for hedging, price discovery theories. It also analyzes the test methods of the function of the gold futures market efficiency. All of this are theoretical groundworks to research the efficiency of Chinese gold futures market functions.The third chapter summaries the functions of the international gold futures market.It statements the major gold futures markets in the world including the NYMEX, COMEX, TOCOM and futures market in Brazil. It simply summaries the functions of gold futures market into two correlated types: one is fundamental functions and the other is deviatory ones. Concretely speaking, the former includes hedging, price discovery, risk hedging and speculative arbitrage; the latter includes stabilizing monetary system, reining prices and enhancing national competitiveness. It believes the necessary factors are important roles for the development of Chinese gold futures market such as the full development of the market economy, the highly developed financial sector, the sound trade regulations, the information technology and the strong guarantee of monetary policy.Chapter IV makes a systematic theoretical analysis on the basic economic functions of Chinese gold futures market on the perspective of the gold industry .It also takes a comprehensive analysis on the derivative function of Chinese gold futures market on the perspective of the gold market, Chinese market economy, national economic security, global economic development strategy .Chapter V is the empirical research on the functions of Chinese gold futures market. It believes that hedging plays an important role in Chinese gold futures market.It can reduce the participants’risk in the market. However, The price discovery function has not been clearly reflected. Gold futures prices in domestic can’t lead the spot prices. The international price of gold futures greatly impacts on the domestic. It also briefly analysis the functional efficiency of the deviatory function of Chinese gold futures.Since the foundamental function is not fully, the deviatory functions were largely restricted on speculative arbitrage, stabilize prices and improve the Chinese position in world gold pricing .Chapter VI makes a factor analysis affecting the founmental functions and deviatory functions of Chinese gold futures market. The main reason is the significant deficiencies of factors such as the validity of information, the spot market, market supervision mode,the structures of market participators and market scales, etc.Chapter VII makes some policy suggestions of how to further enhance the exertion of functions of Chinese gold futures market. It touches four aspects. Concretely speaking they include stock market, law factors, international cooperations and system innovations. Stock market and futures market will mutually affect each other and develop and both will mutually prosper. We Should establish a comprehensive system of the gold industry to provide basic protection. The second ne is to draw up the law of futures, to strengthen the construction of market supervision system, to choose proper supervision mode and to crease fine supervision surroundings. The third one is to strengthen international cooperations and to seek more profits for Chinese economy. The development of Chinese gold futures market should be aimed at enhancing the position of it in the international gold market ,at adding more rights of speaking, by strengthening international cooperations and mixing together the world. The fourth one is to draw into the transaction system of being market merchants, improve the CTA system to ensure healthy market development.更多还原