【作者】 张涛；

【导师】 聂华林；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 区域经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 能源是人类社会进步和发展的重要物质基础,也是实现经济增长的重要生产因素。在资源供给日益紧张和地缘政治动荡不定的背景下,能源发展不仅成为全球性、战略性的问题,也成为国家基本经济单元—省(区)域经济社会发展的关键性、基础性问题。甘肃是一个欠开发、欠发达的内陆省份,经济社会发展相对滞后,但因其具有丰富的能源资源禀赋,逐渐成为中国新兴的能源和新能源基地。能源资源开发,正在成为推进甘肃新型工业化进程的重要动力；能源产业发展,亦将成为甘肃东、西“两翼”迅速崛起的主导产业,对甘肃经济社会发展产生巨大、深远的影响。甘肃丰富的能源资源禀赋,一方面给发展特色产业、振兴区域经济带来新的机遇；另一方面,也为改变传统的能源开发模式、优化常规的能源生产和消费结构创造了契机。因此,在科学发展观指导下,适应甘肃构建区域经济新格局的需要,深入探索甘肃能源产业发展的总体思路,并在现行体制和改革深化的框架内,提出促进能源产业发展的对策建议,以推动甘肃潜在能源资源优势向现实经济优势转化、甘肃自给型能源消费定位向国家能源和新能源供给基地定位转变,具有重要的现实意义和历史意义。本文紧扣甘肃能源产业发展全局中具有重大影响的问题,依据经济发展理论、区域发展理论和能源经济学理论,综合应用文献研究、归纳演绎、实证分析与规范分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合的研究方法,对甘肃能源产业发展的资源基础、保障条件、供需平衡状况、总体思路和对策、分行业思路、重点和对策等,进行了深入研究。论文的主要内容包括四个部分：一是分析与评价甘肃能源资源、能源产业现状、能源产业发展条件,形成了对甘肃能源资源条件和发展潜力更全面的认识。二是分析和预测甘肃能源消费需求总量、供需动态平衡状况,建立了甘肃能源需求预测模型。根据国内外能源需求预测的理论与方法,综合运用主成份分析法、偏最小二乘法,对2015年甘肃能源需求的总量进行了预测；根据甘肃各类能源资源开发进度和产业发展规划,进行了能源供给量预测和供需平衡分析。三是根据甘肃区域经济发展、能源资源开发和能源结构调整的要求,提出构建“东煤、西风、南水、北光”能源资源开发格局、加大资源勘探开发力度、大力发展新能源产业、加大传统能源产业升级改造力度、提升能源综合利用程度、开拓能源供应和输出渠道的发展战略和对策建议。四是根据煤炭、电力、新能源、能源装备制造等能源产业细分行业发展的基础、条件和环境,提出甘肃能源产业总体规模扩张、能源结构大幅调整背景下,煤炭工业、电力工业、新能源产业、能源装备产业等领域的发展思路、重点和对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy is the vital and basic matter for human being development, and also the main manufacture elements for economic increase. Under the background of energy shortage and intensified geographical political relationship, the energy development is not only international and strategic issue, but also the key and fundamental focus of the regional or province areas. Gansu is a far inland and under-developed province in China, its speed of social and economical development drops behind the other areas, but on the basis of the abundant energy resources deposit, Gansu is becoming a rising energy and new energy base in China. At the same time, exploiting energy resources is a significant drive for Gansu’s development; and energy industry is becoming the mainstay industry for two—wing areas’ growing in Gansu, which would produce the extensive and profound influence on the whole social-and-economy development in Gansu.Gansu’s abundant deposit of resources, on one hand, produces the new opportunities of developing the characteristic industry and promoting local economy; on another hand, it creates the new turning point for transforming traditional model of exploiting energy and bettering existing structure of energy produce and consumption. Therefore, with the guidelines of Scientific Outlook on Development, for meeting the demand that Gansu constructs new pattern of regional economy, and proposing the new countermeasures and advising on accelerating transform the potential resource superiority into actual economical dominance, transforming the orientation of Gansu’ self-supplying into the supplying base of energy and new energy for whole country, and promoting the energy industry under the current policy frame and deepening reformation period, this thesis would propose some historic and practical significance.Strictly, in view of issues in Gansu whole energy industry development, choosing the economic development theory, regional development theory, energy-economic theory, and integrating series of research means, such as, literature research, epagoge and deduction, demonstration research and criterion analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the thesis carries out the deep and wide research on the resource base, precondition, status of demand and supply, whole development and the different branch-industry thought, key thought and countermeasures of Gansu energy industry development. The thesis consists of 4 main contents as following:1、Through Analyzing and evaluating on the situation of energy resource and industry, and developing condition of energy industry, it formulates the more all-sided cognition on resources and potential advantages in Gansu.2、Analysis and forecast gross demand-energy consume, it designs the demand-and-supply model of energy in Gansu. By some current theories and method s of energy demand-and-supply forecasting, the paper selects series of scientific analysis, such as Major Component Analysis(MCA), Partial Least Squares(PLS), and forecasts Gansu’s gross energy-demand in 2015. According to the pace of the different resources and industry developing plan of industry in Gansu, the thesis carries out the forecasting on the gross supply of energy and analyzing demand-and-supply balance.3、According to the requirement of developing regional economy and exploiting resources and regulating structure in Gansu, the thesis proposes a pattern that, in Gansu, resources can be exploited by "east coal, west wind, south water, north ray". At the same time, it suggests that it should be produced and supplied new and traditional energy by building Jiuquan new-energy and Longdong coal-electricity bases, enlarging prosperous resources, developing new industry, reconstructing and improving traditional industry, upgrading integrative utilization of resources and creating channels of supply-and-output energy.4、Based on the developed foundation, condition and environment of the sub-divisional energy industry such as coal, electric power, new energy and energy equipment manufacturing, the thesis advances that under the background of expanding totally energy industry and remarkably adjusting energy structure, some key viewpoints and paths of coal, electric power, new energy and development of equipment manufacturing industry in Gansu.更多还原