【作者】 周宾；

【导师】 陈兴鹏；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 人文地理学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 本文依托来源课题,在前期研究中,根据对引洮工程背景资料和与水资源、水资源系统、水资源调用、配置、保护与管理等方面相关既有成果的分析,经历了一个长期的反复思考研究过程后,将“易学”等理论系统整合、有机融合为一体,作为水资源系统调控管理的理论基石,同时又超越和演绎之；实证部分的研究是依托理论的指导,同时与理论部分相互反馈。对研究区水资源的调用管理的现状的研究是实证部分的基础,在此之上,对研究区水资源的调用管理进行系统动力学仿真实证方面的研究。理论研究方面,基于对“易学”哲学思想、二元水循环、熵与耗散结构、可持续发展、生命周期管理、生态经济与循环经济、环境风险管理、生态水利建设与河流健康维护八种理论进行了原型的解析,通过系统整合和有机融合后,构建而成水资源系统“易”理论。通过对该理论的基本原理推演后认为：水资源系统是嵌套在人类经济社会与人工环境耦合而成的生态经济系统和系统外的自然生态环境之间的一个具有流动性、开放性、时空演替和周期循环的复杂系统,其在四维时空中的运动符合水资源“易”理论的运行原理。从生命周期的角度分析,水资源的使用价值具有周期性,在一个周期内,其使用价值随着人化程度的不同而有所差异；基于对水资源系统“易”理论演绎后,可将水资源分为新鲜水资源、过程水资源、边缘水资源、虚拟水资源,前三者为实体水、后者为虚拟水。并且.,水资源系统具有相互制约、对立统一；相互交织、耦合关联；相互转化、循环再生；相互协调、和谐共生等特点。实证研究方面,通过对研究区水资源调用情势的分析,概述了水资源调出区(即,调水区)和水资源受益区(即,受水区)各自水资源禀赋和开发利用情况；同时,也展现了按照地区和用水部门的不同,引洮工程水资源配置的初步方案,并且,对受水区主要地区进行了相关的环境负荷分析。依据对研究区的分析,确定以安定区作为本研究仿真实证的典型区域。基于“易”理论分别就水资源的盈亏平衡和水环境风险调控两个方面,对安定区的水资源系统构建SD模型。这两方面既相对独立又相互关联,经过调试模拟后,得到预测期内的安定区水资源盈亏演变情况和水环境风险对水资源盈亏的影响程度。最后,基于理论研究和仿真实证的结果,建立水资源系统调控管理的总体框架和基本思路,就循环经济型水资源综合利用和系统的环境改善与风险防控两个重点环节分别提出了针对性的管理策略,而后初步设计出了相应的水资源系统管理GIS基础平台,从而使本研究对研究区水资源系统管理框架的设计更加具体实际意义和应用价值。总之,本研究始终将“易学”的思想理论作为统领整个研究的红线,用系统动力学方法,对研究区典型水资源系统进行了模拟与分析,为研究区今后更好地整合各种水资源,科学、有序、合理、安全地利用之,展示了整个水资源系统未来的运行态势；并通过提出相应的调控管理策略,为今后能够更加有效地确保研究区水资源系统健康、稳定、可持续运行指明了行动方向和具体措施；同时,设计了水资源系统管理GIS基础平台,为实现水资源现代化、动态化、实时化、精细化、定量化管理提供了技术保障。本研究成果中的水资源系统“易”理论的构建为国内外水资源系统的相关研究提供了全新的研究思路和视角；实证研究的成果为确保研究区在引洮工程全线通水后,其水资源的“取、调、用、排”之间的做到动态均衡、持续协调、有序公平和对水资源系统安全稳定、可持续健康管理提供了重要的科学参考和技术支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 Relaying on the origin research subject, in the previous research, this article, according to analysis on the related existing achievements on the water resources, the water resources system, the water resources transfers, allocation, protection and management, etc. and background material on Tao river diversion project, took the theory of "Yi" of water resources system integrated with others as the theoretical cornerstone of water resources system regulation and management after a long period of research process. In addition, the new theory was deduced. Empirical study is based on the theoretical one, and mutually fed back with each other. The SD simulating empirical study on diversion & use management of water resources of the study area was based on the present situation analysis of one.In the theoretical study aspect, based on the eight theories such as the "Yi" philosophic thought, dualistic water cycle model, the entropy and the dissipative structure, the sustainable development, the life cycle management, the ecological economy and the circular economy, the environment risk management, the Eco-hydraulic Engineering Construction and the river health maintenance, the "Yi" theory of water resources system was constructed after system integration and organic combination. After the basic principle thought of the theory, it was showed that the water resources system was nested between the system of the human economic society and the artificial environment coupling and the natural ecological environment outside the ecology economic system, and was fluid, open, of temporal processes and periodic cycle complex system, it conforms to the movement principle of the "Yi" theory of the water resources system in the four-dimensional temporal condition. From the angle of the life cycle analysis, the use value of the water resources was of periodicity. In one cycle of water resources use, its use value was different along with the artificial utilization degree. After deduction on the "Yi" theory of water resources system, the water resources could be divided into the fresh water resources, the process water resources, the unconventional water resources, the virtual water resources. The first three were taken as the entity water; the latter was done as the virtual water. In addition, the water resources system was of mutual restriction & the unity of opposites, mutual intertwining & coupling connection, mutual transformation & circular regeneration, inter-coordination & harmonious Symbiosis.In the empirical study aspect, after analysis on the situation of water resources diversion & use in the area studied, the water resources and development & utilization situation for it were showed, and the preliminary program of distribution of water resources of Tao river diversion project according to the different areas and departments. After the analysis on the study area, Anding district was taken as the typical one of simulating empirical study. Based on the "Yi" theory of water resources, the SD models of water resources of Anding were built from the two aspects, independent and related, of the balance between Profit & loss and the regulation of water environment risk. After simulating, the results of it were showed that the change of the balance between Profit & loss and the degree of the regulation, for the balance, of water environment risk. At last, based on the results of the theory study and the empirical one, the total frame and fundamental ideas of water resources system regulation and management were constructed, and some management strategies for the two important aspects of the water resources utilization of circular economy and environment improvement and risk prevention & controlling of the water resources system, and then, the GIS framework of water resources system management was designed preliminarily. Thus, the study on water resources system management was of practical significance and application value.In short, the throughout of "Yi" was taken as the center of this study, the water resources system of the typical area was simulated and analyzed by the SD method. Then it was showed that the development tendency of the water resources system of the study area, and the regulation management strategies and measures of water resources were provided in order to ensure healthy, stable and sustainable operation of the system. Besides, the GIS foundation framework of water resources system management was designed so as to provide the technical support for the accomplishment of the Modern, dynamic, real-time, fine, quantitative water resources management. Besides, the "Yi" theory of water resources founded could provide the new idea and angle for the related study on the water resources system at home and abroad, and the outcomes could provide the important scientific references and technical supports so that the relationship, among the drawing water, transferring, using and discharging in the area, would be of dynamic equilibrium, sustainable coordination, orderly fairness, and the water resources management in the area would be of security & stability, sustainable & health after the finish and operation of Tao river diversion project.更多还原