【作者】 刘轩；

【导师】 张彩虹；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 随着全球人口的急剧增长和工业化进程的不断推进,能源危机与环境污染问题日益加剧。开发新能源、培育新的能源资源、探索利用可再生能源替代化石能源成为目前发达国家能源发展的主要方向之一。我国正处于社会经济发展的重要阶段,无论从能源资源的结构性短缺上,还是从经济可持续发展的要求来考虑,积极开发包括生物质在内的新能源和可再生能源已经成为当务之急。木本油料能源是一种清洁、环保、高效、完全可再生的低碳能源,可以对化石燃料进行部分替代,对于减缓能源危机与环境污染,促进能源高效清洁化利用以及经济、社会、环境的和谐与可持续发展具有重要的现实意义和战略作用。近年来,木本油料能源产业的兴起与发展在世界范围内受到了越来越多的重视。我国虽然对于木本油料能源的研究和开发起步较晚,但是发展潜力巨大。在我国,木本油料资源丰富,适合规模化发展的木本油料能源树种较多,且有大规模适宜发展木本油料能源原料林的待开发土地。同时,我国发展木本油料能源产业具有以下优点：(1)木本油料能源树种再生能力强,在自然条件适宜的情况下,具有生生不息的活力,可源源不断地提供植物燃料。(2)木本油料能源在燃烧的过程中产生的废气和有毒物质比石化燃料少,可以减少污染,保护环境,维持生态平衡。(3)木本油料能源原料林的种植还能绿化荒山,调节气候,保持水土,净化环境。(4)木本油料能源没有危险性和局限性,具有较高的经济效益和生态效益,其不与农业争地,能达到能源、经济和生态效益相统一的良性循环。目前,在我国《可再生能源法》以及《可再生能源中长期发展规划》等政策法规的指引下,一些小规模的木本油料能源示范性开发项目在我国陆续开展起来,但由于我国现阶段对于木本油料能源的研究多集中于资源数量与类型调查、能源树种的筛选、良种繁育及生产技术的研发方面,无法为项目开发与产业发展提供全面的理论基础与理论依据。因此建立一套比较系统、完整、科学的木本油料产业开发理论体系,对我国木本油料能源开发利用进行理论指导,促进木本油料能源产业健康可持续发展是木本油料能源开发利用面临的主要问题。本研究通过对所涉及的经济研究理论和相关研究背景知识进行全面的研究,并对木本油料能源相关研究现状进行综述,提炼总结出目前研究的趋势与研究中存在的不足,在此研究基础上,借鉴发达国家在油料植物研究和开发过程中取得的先进经验,从能源战略发展的角度,根据木本油料能源产业发展的特点与规律,结合当前我国相关示范性项目案例成果与经验,以木本油料能源树种资源开发潜力及其产业发展为研究对象,围绕我国木本油料能源树种资源潜力、原料供应能力与供应模式、木本生物柴油市场潜力、以及其他经济、社会、环境等多角度论证我国木本油料能源产业形成与发展的可行性：从一系列示范性项目案例来分析论证我国木本油料能源林建设与木本生物柴油生产的经济可行性与技术工艺可行性；最后从能源战略发展的角度,根据木本油料能源产业发展的特点与规律,设计我国木本油料能源产业发展的政策方案框架,引导和促进木本油料产业向基地化、规模化、市场化、产业化、可持续化协调发展。本研究所得主要结论如下：(1)我国油料树种种类繁多,资源丰富。目前已发现的133种主要油料树种中油桐、黄连木、乌桕、漆树、文冠果、山桐子、油棕、小桐子、光皮树、绿玉树已在人工种植方面取得成功经验,具有较大发展前景和开发生物柴油价值；我国木本油料能源树种适宜土地资源丰富、分布广泛,经粗略计算,可利用的宜林荒山荒地以及其它可利用土地面积为4452.78万公顷；我国野生油料林缺乏管护,产量低下且不稳定,木本油料能源林基地尚处于建设阶段,相应的培育管理技术目前应用不多,但随着野生低产低效林丰产改造以及人工林的规模化建设完成,产出水平仍有很大提升潜力。综合来看,现阶段木本油料资源产出量低下,但是具备很好的发展环境与发展条件,潜力提升空间巨大,发展前景良好。随着产业的深入发展,其资源产出量会不断快速增加,为生物柴油制备提供充足的原料供给。(2)现阶段,我国木本油料能源化利用项目刚刚兴起,原料资源以现有野生资源为主,自然堆积密度低,资源收集和处理机械化程度也相对较低,可利用规模较小,采取多路径的供应模式可以优势互补,减少原料供应风险。从木本油料能源产业化趋势来看,采取以油料能源林为主的供应模式,积极培育油料能源树种,建立与木本油料能源产业发展规模相匹配的油料能源林基地产业是实现原料供应经济化、规模化、可持续化的唯一途径。(3)传统能源市场面临各种挑战,改变现行以石化能源为主的消费结构,利用新能源和可再生能源来补偿世界对能源的消费需求,同时降低温室气体排放,已经成为全球不可逆转的发展趋势。近年来,世界上许多国家都将发展生物质能源作为国家能源战略的重点,生物柴油产业投资额度和产业规模也明显增大,呈现出蓬勃发展的局面。我国生物柴油市场开发较晚,但随着我国柴油市场的供需紧张,近些年来生物柴油产业的发展越来越受到重视。我国生物柴油原料目前仍将以废弃油脂为主,但随着生物柴油产业的深入发展,木本油料能源林的大规模建立,木本生物柴油将在我国未来生物柴油市场占据主导地位。我国木本生物柴油市场潜力短期来看具有不确定性,但随着木本油料能源产业的不断发展,木本生物柴油市场未来潜力巨大。木本油料资源分布密集、可利用宜林荒山荒地资源丰富、劳动力资源数量大、交通条件相对较好和当地柴油市场供不应求的地区木本生物柴油市场潜力最大,为我国木本生物柴油市场的优先开发区域。(4)从社会需求、产业发展方向、技术条件、经济实力、资源基础来看我国具备木本油料能源产业形成与发展的外部条件。木本油料能源产业以优选树种培育与木本生物柴油开发为切入点和立足点,将科研与生产相结合,以提高经济产出为突破口,以生态治理、社会持续发展的经济增长方式促进循环经济的发展,符合国家产业政策和林业建设要求,也符合项目实施区域社会经济可持续发展要求。(5)在木本油料能源产业发展的起步阶段,产业链各个环节都存在着许多阻碍木本油料能源产业发展的问题。我国当前的生物质能发展政策存在诸多不足,对于木本油料能源产业的支持力度不够。我国木本油料能源产业发展政策方案框架的设计,应该遵循产业发展的动态性以及产业链上各环节的关联性这种纵横交织的思路。在产业发展初期,主要目的是构建可以推动木本油料能源产业发展的政策体系,为其之后步入产业化做好政策辅助,这一阶段产业发展以政府支持导向为主；规模经营开始出现,产业体系开始形成,该阶段主要是对木本油料能源产业发展的政策体系不断优化完善,政策重心是推动木本生物柴油进入市场,增强其竞争能力以及时加大研发环节的资金投入,实现关键性技术的突破,该阶段的政策仍以政府主导,市场自主调节为辅；随着木本油料能源产业化的实现,行业发展逐步走向规范化、市场化,拥有持续稳健的发展前景,木本生物柴油竞争实力的大幅增强,相关优惠政策与补贴逐渐取消,此阶段木本油料能源产业发展主要依赖市场自发调节,政府作用及政府行为只起辅助作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid increase of world population and industrialization, the problem of energy shortage and environment pollution is getting worse. Developing new energy, cultivating new energy resources and finding renewable energy to substitute the fossil energy is becoming the main target of the developed countries. Now it is a critical stage for our economic development. Considering the structural shortage of energy resources and the requirement of sustainable development of economy, developing new and renewable energy, including biomass, is in an urgent need.Woody oil energy is a clean, environment-friendly, efficient, and renewable low-carbon energy resource. It can be used to partially replace the fossil fuel, which may play an important role in relieving the energy crisis and environment pollution, promoting the efficiency of energy, and supporting the sustainable development of society, economy, and environment. In recent years, the development of woody oil energy is getting more and more attention worldwide.Although China lags in the research and development of woody oil energy, we still have huge potential. China is rich in the woody oil plants resource and abundant with woody oil plants for scale development. Besides, China has vast area of land which is suitable for lager scale cultivation of the woody oil energy forest. Meanwhile, we have four significant advantages for developing woody oil energy industry in China:(1) the high regenerating ability of woody oil energy plants. These trees can vigorously grow in appropriate circumstances under natural conditions and provide woody oil continuously; (2) the waste gases and toxic substances produced by the burning of woody oil energy are less than of fossil fuels. It is beneficial for the pollution reduction, environment protection as well as maintaining ecological balance; (3) the planting of woody oil energy forest can be used to increase the forest coverage rate, balance the climate, conserve soil and water, and protect the environment; (4) the development of woody oil energy can be highly economically and ecologically beneficial without risk and limitation which nuclear and wind power, tidal power and geothermal energy usually bring about. This new energy also has little regional limitation and distribution problems. Barren hills, hillsides and non-cultivated land can be used to plant these woody oil plants. The energy, economy, and ecology can be benefited in this virtuous cycle.At present, under the guidance of some relevant policies, such as the Renewable Energy Law and the Long-Term Development Policies and Regulations of Renewable Energy, some woody oil energy demonstrative projects of small scale are under implementation in China. However, nowadays most researches of woody oil energy focus on surveying the quantity and type of these resources, selecting and breeding the species of trees, and developing the production technology, all of which cannot provide a valuable theoretical basis and principle. Therefore, how to set up a systematic, complete and scientific woody oil development industry theory system is becoming the principal problem. This system will provide a theoretical guidance and promote sustainable development of the woody oil energy industry in China.The economic research theory and research background knowledge are applied in this paper, in which the recent progress, tendency and drawback in woody oil energy research are summarized, and the advanced experience of exploring oil plants from developed countries is also mentioned. Based on these researches, this paper focuses on the potential of woody oil energy resources and its industrial development. All these work is carried out according to the development characteristics and patterns of woody oil energy industry, combining the achievement and experience from the current related projects in our country. The feasibility of the formation and development of woody oil energy industry in China are discussed. The potential of woody oil energy resources and woody biodiesel industry, supply ability and model of the feedstock, and other economic, social and environmental effects are also taken into consideration. The economic and technique feasibility of the construction of woody oil energy forest and the production of woody biodiesel are demonstrated based on the analyses of a series of demonstrative projects. Finally, based on the characteristics and rules of woody oil energy industry, the policy framework of woody oil energy development in China is designed. This will promote the development of woody oil energy industry and serve as a guide for sustainable development.This paper comes to the following conclusion:First, there are many kinds of oil plants in our country. Among the 133 types of oil plants found in China, Aleurites fordii, Pistacia chinensis Bunge, Sapium sebiferum (L.) Roxb, toxicodendronvernicifluum, Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge, Idesia polycarpa、Elaeis, Jatropha curtae L, Cornus Wilsoniana Wanaer, and Euphorbia tirucalli have been successfully cultivated with great development potential and value for diesel oil production. The land suitable for the growth of oil plants in our country is big in area. The total area of barren hill, wild land and other land which can be used for growth of woods reaches about 44527800 hectares. Because of poor management technology, the yield of wild oil plants in our country is low and unstable. However, the productivity has huge potential for growth with the reconstruction of the low-yielded forest and the building of man-made forest in large scale. In another word, the yield of oil plants resource is low now, but it has big improvement space. With further development of the industrialization, the yield will increase fast, which will provide feedstock for the the bio-diesel oil production. Second, the programs of energy utilization of woody oil plants just get started, of which the main feedstock is the various wild resource with the characteristics of low accumulated density, low mechanization level of resource collection and treatment, and small usage scale. Uncertainty of feedstock provision can be decreased by the use of multipath provision patterns. According to the energy industrialization tendency of oil plants, the only practical way to achieve economy of scale and sustainable development of feedstock provision is to cultivate energy oil plants and develop oil plant energy industry based on oil plant forest energy industry. Third, since traditional energy market is confronted with all kinds of challenges, changing the energy consumption structure, developing new energy and renewable energy to complement the global energy consumption requirement, and decreasing the emission of greenhouse gas have become a nonreversible development trend all round the world. In recent years, developing biofuel has become a key energy strategy for many countries. The investment and industrialization of the biodiesel oil increase distinctively. For the lag in developing biodiesel market, the provision capacity is rather small in the market, which brings more and more attention to biodiesel oil industry. With the development of biodiesel oil industry, the current situation in which biodiesel mainly derives from waste grease will shift to woody oil plant. In the short time, market of biodiesel deriving from woody oil plant is unstable, but it has huge development potential in the future. Areas and regions with dense distribution of woody oil plants, abundant wild land resource suitable for forest, sufficient labor force, convenient transportation, and huge demand for diesel will has the biggest developing potential of woody biodiesel oil market and should be developed first. Forth, based on market demand, industrial trend, technology, economic and resource perspectives, it is favorable for our country to develop woody oil energy industry. The woody oil energy industry should first focus on the cultivation of selected seeds and the development of biodiesel oil, materialize its research finding and increase economic yield. The industry should also achieve economic growth with ecologic balance and sustainable development, which fits for the requirement of our country’s industry strategy and forest construction regulation, and sustainable development of the project headquarters. Fifth, at the starting stage of woody oil energy development, there exists resistance in each part of the industry chain. The current policy of the development of biomass energy has lot of shortage and the strategic support is not sufficient. The policy framework design of the industry development of woody oil energy should focus on the industry dynamic development and the relation of each part of the industry chain. At the early development stage, the main target is building a policy system to promote the industry and standardize its future growth. In this period, the industry development is led by government. After operation and industry system are standardized, the policy system should be optimized and the key move is to put woody biodiesel oil into market, enhance competition ability, increase research investment, and develop key technology. The policy at this stage is led by the government and assisted by the market. With the industrialization of woody oil energy, the development will become standardized and stable. The subsidy and preferential policy will be cancelled when the competitive power of biodiesel increase considerately. At this stage, the development of woody oil energy mainly depends on spontaneous regulation of the market and the government is just supplemental.更多还原