【作者】 聂森；

【导师】 王百田；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 生态环境工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 在巨大的生态压力和多种社会、经济因素的影响作用下,我国实施了规模最大的林业生态工程—退耕还林还草工程。此工程是我国迄今为止政策性最强、工作程序最多、涉及面最广、投资量最大,群众参与程度最高的一项宏大生态建设工程。工程的建设是以生态效益为基础,经济效益为核心,社会可持续发展为最终目标。本文以退耕还林工程项目区的100个样本县为研究对象,采用问卷调查、数据表填报、跟踪监测结合典型调查等方法进行调查,结合专题调研的方式,调查了1998年～2009年退耕还林地区100个样本县的社会经济情况,从项目区产业结构、土地利用结构及产值结构、农民就业结构、农民生活变化和种植结构与粮食安全几方面进行了分析,并对其进行了趋势发展预测。(1)项目区产业结构。1998年～2009年,退耕还林项目区第一产业产值退耕前后是逐渐减少,退耕前减少了3.63%,退耕后减少了9.14%,总体上减低了13.69%；退耕前后第二、三产业产值逐渐增加,整体上,第二产业增加较多,增加了12.49%。对其趋势分析可知,第一产业产值在国内生产总值中所占的比例是逐渐减少的,降幅为27.05%；第二产业逐渐增加,增幅为32.10%；第三产业逐渐减少,减少了4.02%。(2)项目区土地利用结构及产值结构。退耕还林项目区土地利用结构主要从耕地、林地和草牧场三方面分析。1998-2005年耕地利用缓慢下降,2006～2009年有逐步回升的现象。退耕前后林地利用呈上升趋势。退耕前1998～2000年上升幅度较小,2001年后呈上升趋势,2009年比1998年增加了21.51%。2004～2009年草牧场利用面积逐年增加,增加了267.51万公顷。初期2004～2005年,利用面积缓慢上升,随着退耕年数的增加,2006年后,各年间增幅最大,到2009年增加了209.13万公顷。对其进行趋势分析可知,耕地利用面积略有增加,林地和草牧场利用面积均呈现增加的趋势。退耕还林项目区产值结构主要从国内生产总值、地方财政收入、农业、林业、畜牧业、渔业和总产值几方面分析。退耕前1998～2000年,国内生产总值、地方财政收入、农业产值、林业产值、畜牧业产值、渔业产值和总产值缓慢上升,增加的幅度较小,实施退耕还林工程后,增加的幅度逐渐增大,除国内生产总值和地方财政收入外,林业产值增加幅度最大,畜牧业产值次之,农业产值最小。总体上,林业产值增加最大,其次是畜牧业产值,农业产值增加最小。趋势分析可知,在国内生产总值和地方财政收入迅速增长的同时,农业、林业、畜牧业、渔业产值和总产值随之增加。(3)项目区农民就业结构。退耕还林项目区农民就业结构主要从乡村总人口、年末乡村从业人员和外出务工人员三方面分析。退耕前1998～2000年乡村总人口呈增加趋势,退耕后2001～2009年乡村总人口的波动较大,但总体呈减少的趋势,2009年与1998年相比,减少了0.44%。乡村从业人员总体上呈现出上升的趋势。退耕前1998～2000年呈缓慢上升趋势；2001年开始,上升的趋势较明显。退耕前1998～2000年外出务工人员呈缓慢上升趋势,增加幅度较小。2001年开始,增加的比较明显,增幅也从退耕前的26.83%增加到88.91%。对其进行趋势分析,乡村总人口整体上呈现降低趋势,到2017年降低了0.70%。年末乡村从业人员和外出务工人员均呈现增加的趋势,到2017年分别增加了240.60万人和1673.12万人。这主要是退耕还林的实施使农村剩余劳动力增加,农民为了增加收入,学习新技术,掌握新技能,以增加就业。(4)项目区农民生活变化。主要从贫困人口、农民人均纯收入和农民消费结构三方面进行分析。总体上,1998年～2009年贫困人口逐渐减少,退耕前期减少的趋势不明显,2001～2009年明显减少。农民人均纯收入与贫困人口呈相反的趋势。退耕前上升缓慢,增加的幅度较小,退耕后上升趋势明显,到2009年增加了165.74%。农民消费结构主要分析了耐用消费品和能源消耗结构的变化。工程的实施,增加了农民收入,使得农民对消费品的需求量也逐渐增加。煤炭、柴草、燃气的使用农户减少,混合能源的使用增多。进行趋势分析可知,1998～2017年贫困人口总体上是逐渐减少的,减少了68.78%。农民人均纯收入是逐渐增加的,增加了5987.94元/(人·年)。非农产业发展,带动地区经济发展,同时转移了农村剩余劳动力,增加了农民收入,贫困人口数量减少,农民人均纯收入增加。(5)项目区种植结构与粮食安全。主要从粮食总播种面积、农作物总播种面积、粮食总产量和粮食单产四方面进行分析。退耕前1998-2000年,粮食单产、粮食总播种面积、农作物总播种面积和粮食总产量均呈现下降的趋势；退耕初期,变化不大；退耕后期,粮食总播种面积和农作物总播种面积略有增加,粮食总产量和粮食单产稳定上升。2009年粮食总产量是退耕初期2000年的1.26倍。2009年相比2000年,粮食单产增加了0.65吨/公顷,增幅为18.06%。对项目区的粮食总产量和粮食单产进行趋势分析可知,退耕前1998～2000年,项目区的粮食总产量和单产均呈下降趋势；退耕初期,粮食总产量逐渐增加,但变化较小；后期呈现稳定上升趋势。说明退耕还林工程的实施没有威胁到我国的粮食安全。更多还原

【Abstract】 Returning farmland to forest project is the largest ecological project, facing increasing ecological pressure and variety of economic and social factors. Returning farmland to forest project is the vastest ecological construction project of area,scope,investment,policy.Meantime it involves the personal interests of farmers and is the most possibility of rebound.The paper studied on 100 sample counties in returning farmland to forest area,using questionnaire survey,filling data form, tracking monitor with typical survey and special field survey to survey. The paper surveyed socioeconomic status in100 sample counties from 1998 to 2009.The paper analyzed domestic industrial structure, the land use and value structure, farmers employment, income and consumption structure and food security. And it forested the future development. Main results are as follows.(1) Project area of industrial structure. Primary industry output value in GDP proportion decreases by 13.69%, Secondary industry and Tertiary industry increases by 12.49% and 0.03% from 1998 to 2007. The paper used grey system prediction model to forecasting the three major industry.The results show that Primary industry in GDP proportion gradually reduced 27.05%, Secondary industry increases by 32.1% and Tertiary industry decreases by 2.59%.(2) The land use and value structure. Land use structure is mainly analyzed from farmland, forest land and pasture land. Farmland utilization area showed a downward trend, decreasing by 4.57%; forest land and pasture land area showed an upward trend, increasing by21.51% and 179.79% respectively. The paper used gray system model and a simple linear model to predict.Farmland utilization will show a decrease to increase trend, forest land and pasture land will show a trend of increasing to 2017.Output value structure is analyzed mainly from GDP, LFR, agriculture, forestry, livestock, fishery and gross output. With the increasing of GDP and LFR, agriculture, forestry, livestock, fishery and gross output was increasing from 1998 to 2009. GDP and LFR will increase rapidly, agriculture, forestry, livestock, fishery and gross output will increase to 2017. (3)Farmers employment structure.It is analyzed mainly from total rural population, year end of rural engaged workers and migrant workers. The total rural population decreased by0.44%,;the year end of rural engaged workers showed an increase to decrease trend, totally increasing by3.69%; migrant workers growed 157.35% from 1998 to 2007. Predicting shows the total rural population will show an increased to decreased trend,totally decreasing by 26.17 million population;the year end of engaged workers and migrant workers will show an increasing trend,respectively 240.60 million and 1673.12 million population.(4) Farmers’income structure. The paper analyzes mainly from poor population, net income per capita and consumption structure. Poor population decreased and net income per capita was gradually increasing from 1998 to 2007. The prediction shows that with poor population decreasing, net income per capita increases.Consumption structure mainly analyzed durable consumer goods and energy consumption structure change. Durable consumer goods includs refrigerators, freezers, television sets, motorcycles, telephones and computers.With implanting the returning farmland to forest project,it increased the income of farmers, so the demand of durable consumer goods increase gradually.Coal,firewood and gas utilization reduced, hybrid energy utilization increased.(5) Food security.This part mainly includes unit area grain yield, grain planting area, total crop planting area and total grain yield. From 1998 to 2000, unit area grain yield, grain planting area, total crop planting area and total grain yield showed an downward trend. In the beginning, they changed a little; later period, they rised steadily. Among them, compared with before returning farmland to forest project, the average grain yield increased 13.93% from 2004 to 2006. The total grain sown area and total crop planting area increased 17.76% and 64.78% respectively in 2008, comparing with 2000. Total grain yield in 2009 was 1.26 times in 2000. For China’s food security forecasting analysis, we know that the development trend of unit area grain yield, grain planting area, total crop planting area and total grain yield is basically the same. Before returning farmland to forest project, they show an downward trend. In the beginning, they changed a little; later period, they rised steadily. This shows the implementation of the returning farmland to forest project isn’t to China’s food security problems.更多还原