【作者】 胡皓；

【导师】 韩兆洲；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 统计学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 服务产出核算是国民经济核算研究中的一个重要问题,目前对服务产出的核算还存在一些需要改进的方面。2008年,联合国统计署(UNSTAT)、世界银行(WB)、国际货币基金组织(IMF)、经济合作与发展组织(OECD)、欧洲经济共同体委员会(European Economic Community Commission)对联合国国民经济核算体系(SNA1993)的修订中提出了有诸如非市场服务产出(如教育服务产出和一般政府服务产出)、金融保险服务产出、地下服务、非法服务、不正规服务活动的产出等方面核算方法的改进问题。我国现行国民经济核算工作中以及我国国民经济核算体系(2002)中在服务产出核算方面也存在类似亟需研究改进和完善的一些理论和方法问题。目前中国国民经济核算的研究大多还局限在SNA(1993)本身,对国际上最新的研究成果跟踪不够。本文针对服务产出核算中存在的若干问题进行了理论方法和实证研究。首先,形成了一份有关服务产出核算理论和方法的专门研究资料。本文比较系统地对国内外有关研究文献作出了综述,并集中系统地研究阐述了服务产出核算的基本范围与方法及其核算中存在的主要问题,并采用有关实际数据作出了实证分析研究,形成了一份有关服务产出核算理论和方法的专门研究资料。其次,形成了一套比较系统研究服务产出核算的理论和方法的体系,设计了专门的抽样调查方案。针对服务产出核算中服务的数量难以量化,缺乏明确的计量单位,非市场服务没有市场价格,如何反映其质量的不同,如何计量产出价值等问题展开研究,形成了一套比较系统研究服务产出核算的理论和方法的体系,即以产出收入法为主导,结合投入支出法,从产出角度核算市场和非市场服务总产出,进而核算其服务增加值的理论和方法的体系。针对未观测到的服务,由于其地下性、非法性、小规模性而很难核算的问题进行研究,设计了抽样调查方案,以在每个阶段采取不放回的与单元规模大小成比例的概率抽样(即πps抽样)的多阶段抽样(multi-stage sampling)方式,运用随机回答技术搜集未观测服务产出数据的核算方法。最后,对服务产出核算中的五个方面进行了研究,提出了一些新的观点和方法,有所创新。针对金融中介服务产出的核算,研究了如何通过存款利率和贷款利率计算金融中介服务费率,按银行存、贷业务工作费用支出(或工作量)的比例来分摊存、贷款利率差额,计算银行存、贷款中介服务费率,进而求得参考利率来计算金融中介服务产出。研究了对金融中介服务产出进行账户登录和分摊的方法,并按新方法计算了广东省2005年至2009年的金融中介服务产出。针对非人寿保险服务产出核算时如何调整索赔额,作出了理论和方法研究,包括直接计算法和间接计算法,分别采用指数平滑法、移动平均建模法、ARIMA模型法、回归模型法,以广东省2000年至2009年实际数据为例,计算了调整索赔额,并作了对比分析。针对未观测服务产出核算中资料搜集难的问题,设计了抽样调查方案。对非正规服务的特征及其活动产出是否应该纳入产出核算,如果纳入,该如何核算,进行了理论研究；对非法服务和地下服务产出核算方法作了比较研究,采用现金比率法、收支差异法、货运量法分别测算了我国1978年至2009年的非法服务和地下服务产出,并设计了具体的采用随机回答技术收集非法服务和地下服务产出资料的方法。针对非市场教育服务产出核算中存在的主要问题,研究了非市场教育服务产出核算的方法；重点研究了公立高等教育服务产出的核算方法及其公立高等教育服务产出的质量调整方法,从产出角度,以学生人数、教学时数、单位课时收费等为基础计算高等教育服务产出,采用班级人数系数、教师职称系数、教师课堂教学水平系数、教师科研水平系数、学校资源禀赋系数、法定利税率等对高等教育服务产出质量进行了调整,并以广东个别高校为例进行了实际核算。针对其他非市场一般政府服务产出核算投入替代法的局限性,研究了其他非市场一般政府服务及其特点和核算范围,存在的基本问题,重点从理论上探讨了如何从产出角度,运用增长率调整法和产出指标法核算一般政府服务产出,对其理论作了较新的研究和阐述,提出了采用人均费用支出物量指数、人均GDP物量指数、费用支出的人均GDP强度指数进行调整的方法；尝试从产出角度,按照税收收入计算其他非市场一般政府服务产出,并提出了一些新的观点和方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Measurement of service output is an important issue in SNA (System of National Accounts), however, it still needs some improvement. Accordingly, in 2008, the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSTAT), the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), European Economic Community Commission has proposed some amendments of SNA(1993), including measurement of non-market services output (such as education service output and general government services output), financial and insurance services output, and, underground services, illegal services, informal service activities output. Besides, some theories and methods of service output accounting also need to be improved within practical work and system of national accounts (2002) in China. Actually, most of the research on national accounts in China are still limited in SNA (1993) itself and lack of reference to the latest international research. On that account, this paper has a research on several issues about service output accounting by both theoretical and empirical means.To begin with, make a specialized report on theories and methods of service output accounting from research materials.Firstly, make a systematic review on domestic and foreign literature. Secondly, focuse on a systematic study on the basic scope and methods of service output accounting and its main problems that exist in accounting. Thirdly, apply practical data to an empirical analysis. Finally, make a specialized report on theories and methods of service output accounting from research materials.What’s more, present a set of systems of theories and methods of service output accounting within dedicated sampling schemes.There are lots of difficult issues when accounting service output such as:hard to quantify the number of services, lack of a clear unit of measurement, no market price for non-market services, how to reflect the diversity of its quality, how to measure its output value. On this account, this paper elaborates the difficult issues and presents a set of systems of theories and methods of service output accounting, that is, be oriented by output-income approach, combine with input-expenditure approach, measure market and non-market services total output from the output perspective, and thus measure the value added of its services.When it comes to non-observed service, due to its underground, illegal, small-scale nature, it’s hard to account. This paper shows a sampling scheme, that is, apply multi-stage sampling which means that the unit-taken will not be put back at each stage and the size of probability sampling is proportional to the size of sampling unit(πps sampling), and random-answering technical to collect non-observed service output data.Last but not least, study on another five issues existed in service output accounting and put forward some new ideas and methods to be innovative.With regard to accounting financial intermediation services output, this paper, on the one hand, explains that how to calculate rate of financial intermediation services fee with deposit rates and loan rates, how to allocate a difference of deposit and loan interest rate according to the proportion of bank’s deposit and loan operations expenses (or work), how to calculate rates of deposit and loan intermediation services fee of bank. Moreover, obtain the reference rate to calculate the output of financial intermediation services. On the other hand, it discusses some methods of accounting entry and allocation of financial intermediation services output and applies a new method to calculate the output of financial intermediation services in Guangdong from 2005 to 2009.This paper does a theoretical and methodological research with respect to how to adjust the claims in either direct or indirect way when accounting non-life insurance services output, that is, on the basis of data of Guangdong from 2000 to 2009, calculate the adjusted claims by respective means of exponential smoothing method, moving average model, ARIMA model and regression model, furthermore, do a comparative analysis.After taking into consideration that it’s difficult in data collection when accounting non-observed service, this paper designs a sampling scheme. It also makes a theoretical discussion whether the informal service should be included in output-accounting boundary for its features and activities. If included, moreover, how to measure it. In addition, it draws a comparison of output measurement between illegal service and underground service which is that it measures the output of illegal service and underground service from 1978 to 2009 respectively by means of cash-ratio, balance- discrepancy and freight-transported. It, furthermore, expounds how to collect the output data of illegal service and underground service with random-answering technical.This paper has a discussion on measurement to non-market output of educational service, especially on that of public higher education service and quality-adjusting formula of it. Correspondingly, it measures the output of higher education service from an output point of view based on the number of students, teaching hours, flat fees paid on hours etc. and adjusts quality of that with coefficient of class size, teachers’ professional title, class teaching level, teachers’ scientific research ability, school resources endowment, legal tax rate etc. In the end, it exemplifies the measurement with data of a university in Guangdong.Concerning limitations of input-substituting routine in other non-market output accounting like general government service, this paper discusses their features, accounting scope and basic problems. In particular, it explores in theory how to measure general government service output by means of growth-rate-adjusting and output indicators from an output point of view and makes a new research and elaboration of it. Furthermore, it introduces a method of adjusting the measurement by input-substituting routine with expenditure per capita volume index, GDP per capita volume index and an intensity index of the two just mentioned. At last, it tries to measure general government service output in accordance with tax revenue and proposes some new ideas and methods.更多还原