【作者】 刘千里；

【导师】 沈固朝；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 情报学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 本研究的对象为情报信号。关于何为情报信号的,大体上可以归纳为Spence等人的博弈信号说、Chen等人的竞争信号说、Ansoff等人的预测信号说以及Fahey等人的推论信号说。本研究对于情报信号的定义更多地站在推论信号说的立场之上,并更进一步地,认为情报信号本质上是一种主观世界的变化,并将情报信号定位为“情报信号是一种语用信息,它反映了处于问题解决当中的主体认知状态的变化”。本研究着重从三方面展开对情报信号的研究,要解决的核心问题为：Q1：从理论本体论角度讲,情报信号是什么?Q2：从实证影响因素角度讲,主体情报信号的意义构建过程有哪些影响因素?Q3：从实践方法论角度讲,研究情报信号的意义构建对情报工作有何指导意义?总的说来,有关情报信号意义构建本质内涵、影响因素以及方法论意义,将是本文的研究范围。情报信号的研究既要重视情报信号的本体论研究,也要关注情报信号的方法论研究。关键是要把握住“一个核心论题,两个基本立足点,三个研究维度”。所谓“一个核心论题”指的就是情报信号即认知状态变化这一概念内涵。所谓“两个基本立足点”指的是情报信号意义构建所涉及的导入、搜集、组织以及推论这四个环节,都是基于具体的问题解决情境的,具体说来就是立足于认知情境不确定性和情报主体有限理性这两个基本假定。所谓“三个研究维度”具体指的是情报信号的意义构建、情报流程以及分析领域这三个维度。为了回答第一个问题,本研究以认知矩阵作为基本分析工具,构建了情报信号意义构建的数学模型。为了回答第二个问题,本研究以理论模型为基础,构建情报信号意义构建的影响因素构念模型,运用结构方程模型对262个有效样本数据进行模型拟合以进行假设验证。为了回答第三个问题,本研究将“搜集—分析—利用”这一传统的情报流程转化为“问题导入—信息搜集—信息组织—情报推论”这一基于组织意义构建理论的意义构建流程,以更适合面向情报信号的情报工作。本研究的主要结论分为理论结论和实证结论两方面。理论结论方面包括：理论结论-1：在已知解决问题所需的知识框架的前提下,任意主体的可以通过归纳、演绎、扩充知识维度、更新具体知识及获得直觉的方法来保证问题解决的实现。理论结论-2：仅通过归纳、演绎的方法,任意主体只能解决那些与其知识结构相同、核心知识相同的问题。理论结论-3：不同知识背景间的主体认知状态交流,将产生新的知识。而这新的知识对于其中任一主体而言均是未曾考虑过的。理论结论-4：处于时间序列中的认知状态序列,其前一时刻的认知状态为后一时刻的认知状态提供了理解的基础。并且认知状态对于客观世界的反映既具有理性的成分,又具有非理性的成分。实证结论方面包括：实证结论-1：在情报信号的意义构建中,存在着因果链条：团体协作→情报方法→认知背景→情报信号意义构建实证结论-2：三大情报信号意义构建因素中,情报方法是中介变量：(团体协作→情报方法→认知背景团体协作→认知背景实证结论-3：影响认知背景完整程度的主要因素有认知广度、认知深度、认知连续度以及个体认知偏差。实证结论-4：影响情报方法完善程度的主要因素有演绎途径、问题驱动途径。实证结论-5：认知互补度以及团体认知偏差并非影响团体协作完美程度的主要因素。实证结论-6：无论是个体认知偏差还是团体认知偏差,认知偏差因素并非意义构建的消极因素。本研究的创新点主要体现在两方面：(1)在理论方面,构建了情报信号意义构建的数学模型。这一模型以认知矩阵为基本分析工具,区分了两类重要的情报工作任务：问题解决型任务以及情报预测型任务,两者的根本区别在于是否存在问题矩阵。对于问题解决型任务,本文通过对认知矩阵变换的分析,得到了在问题解决型任务中,进行有效情报信号意义构建的矩阵方程。并通过探讨认知矩阵的融合问题,将多主体参与情形转化为单一主体参与情形。对于情报预测型任务,本文参考Kalman滤波理论,初步给出情报预测的认知矩阵迭代模型,为进一步研究奠定基础。(2)在实证方面,得到了情报信号意义构建的影响因素实证模型。这一实证模型以理论模型为基础,区分出影响情报信号有效意义构建的三大因素：认知背景完整度、情报方法完善度以及团体协作完美度。更多还原

【Abstract】 The object of this study is intelligence signal. It can be summarized the four main ideas of thought of intelligence signal research:game signal research represented by Spence, competitive signal research represented by Chen, forecast signal research represented by Ansoff and inference signal research represented by Fahey. This study starts from the inferences signal research, and furthermore, thinks that intelligence signal, which can be defined as pragmatic information, is essentially a kind of change of our subject world.This study focuses on three aspects of intelligence signal to commence the research:◆Q1:From an ontological point of view, what is the intelligence signal?◆Q2:From an empirical point of view, what are the factors of the sense-making process of subject intelligence signal?◆Q3:From a practical point of view, what is sense of researching sense-making of intelligence signal to the intelligence work?In general, the research scope of this study is the content, the factors and the methodological sense of intelligence signal.The main conclusions of this study can be divided into theoretical conclusions and empirical conclusions.The theoretical conclusions include:■Theoretical conclusion I:Any intelligence subject can make sure of problem solving by four approaches, which are inductive approach, deductive approach, problem driving approach and the intuition driving approach.■Theoretical conclusionⅡ: One intelligence subject can only solve the problem which has the same knowledge structure and the same core knowledge with those of the subject.■Theoretical conclusion III:The communication of the subjects with difference knowledge context will generate new knowledge.■Theoretical conclusion IV: The sequence of cognitive states in timeline, the former state provides understanding foundation of the state after and the reflection of cognitive state to the object world includes both rational elements and non-rational elements.The empirical conclusions include:■Empirical conclusion I:There exit causal chains during the sense-making process of intelligence signal:Team collaboration→intelligence method→cognitive background→intelligence signal sense-making■Empirical conclusionⅡ: In the three main factors of intelligence signal sense-making, the intelligence method is the intermediary factor.■Empirical conclusionⅢ: The main factors influencing the completeness of cognition include the width of cognition, depth of cognition, continuity of cognition and bias of individual.■Empirical conclusionⅣ: The main approaches influence the perfect degree of intelligence method include the inductive approach, deductive approach, problem driving approach and the intuition driving approach.■Empirical conclusionⅤ: The complementary degree of cognition and the bias of team aren’t the main factors of perfect degree of teamwork.■Empirical conclusionⅥ: Neither biases of individual nor biases of team are the negative factors of sense-making.The innovation of this study is mainly reflected in two aspects:■In theoretical aspects, it has built a mathematical model of sense-making of intelligence signal.■In empirical aspect, it has found out the empirical model of sense-making of intelligence signal.更多还原