【作者】 许德友；

【导师】 梁琦；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 世界经济， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,随着对外贸易的快速发展,中国日益全面而深入地融入到全球经济中,与此同时,国内的产业地理(“产业”本文限定为制造业)也发生了深刻的变化：大多数产业在东部沿海地区集聚,东部省份聚集了来自全国的劳动力和来自全球的资本。从21世纪第一个十年的中期开始,随着区域开发政策的不断实施,国内外经济一体化程度持续深化,东部地区的劳动密集型产业开始向中西部地区进行梯度转移,国内市场对产业空间分布的影响作用相对增强,但沿海地区贸易出口的优势依然支撑着产业在东部地区的份额领先。毫无疑问,中国产业地理的变迁既与国内的市场化改革有关,更与以对外贸易为特征的全球化密不可分。NAFTA使墨西哥城的制造业分散于墨西哥的美墨边界地区,欧盟一体化加剧了意大利的南北发展差距,对外开放让大量制造业企业在中国的东部沿海地区集聚——贸易自由化是塑造产业地理的重要力量。贸易开放带来的是市场规模的扩大,而市场规模正是新经济地理理论解释产业空间分布分布的基础变量：较大的市场会使得具有规模经济的企业生产成本更低,这鼓励了企业规模的扩张并吸引新的企业进驻此地；另一方面,市场规模大的原因在于许多企业和消费者也聚集在那里,市场获得、运输成本和要素流动形成了互为因果的累积循环。对外贸易的开放,对于面积较大的国家(如中国)而言,不同地区因此获得的市场规模的扩大并不一致,东部沿海地区因在地理结构上靠近国外市场而获得了先天的优势,国家政策的优惠进一步强化了这种优势,沿海地区面临的大的市场吸引企业和工人,而企业对中间投入产品的需求和工人对终端产品的需求使得市场规模更大,从而使得产业持续在东部集聚。但随着国内市场一体化的深入,国内市场的作用开始扩大,产业和企业发生转移和扩散,中国的产业地理开始新的演化。本文运用传统贸易理论、新贸易理论和新经济地理理论结合中国的发展特征,从理论和实证两个方面分析了对外贸易在中国产业地理形成中的影响。与以往研究相比,本文在改进的理论模型、产业地理描述、出口贸易空间特征和以及影响产业地理的因素考察等方面,进行了优化和创新。在对现有文献进行归纳、整理和评述的基础上,本文首先拓展了一个分析对外贸易与国内产业地理的模型——一个包含两国三地区的一般均衡模型,模型通过对运输成本和国内两地区非对称等假定的改进处理,能够更准确地描述和解释目前对外贸易开放对中国产业地理的影响。论文接下来利用改进版本的引力模型测度和分析了中国对外贸易成本的变化,通过产业分类和地区分类详尽地描述和刻画了中国产业地理的时空演变,并在此基础上研究中国贸易出口的空间特征。文章的第三大部分是在上述已有研究结果的基础上,再结合新贸易理论、新经济地理理论的理论解释构建计量方程,利用不同指标和数据验证中国对外贸易与产业地理的关系,并以城市经济为研究对象,考察内外部市场获得对地区发展的影响。论文的最后是总结性的结论、政策含义和研究展望。通过理论和实证分析,本文得到了如下主要结论。(1)两国三地区模型中,国内两地区不对称的情形下,对外贸易的开放使得具有地理优势的贸易便利地区获得了先发优势,这使得这些地区成为产业的集聚地,要素和产出在此集聚,而且这种优势是不可逆转的。对外贸易成本的降低凸显外部市场的作用,会减缓产业由贸易便利区向国内其他地区扩散的趋势,外部需求的恶化会加剧这种转移的趋势。(2)改革开放以来,中国对外双边贸易成本均出现了大幅度的下降。空间上,中国与欧盟、美国的空间距离和运输成本大于中国与中国香港、中国台湾、东盟、韩国和日本的空间距离和运输成本,而双边贸易成本也是前者大于后者。时间上,加入WTO对中国对外双边贸易成本的下降作用明显。对象上,目前中国与东亚新兴地区的双边贸易成本要低于与美日欧等发达国家,开放以来的下降幅度也更大。(3)以对外贸易自由化和吸引外资便利化为特征的经济全球化深刻影响着中国的产业地理,不同类型产业的地理分布特征和时空演变趋势存在较大差异。劳动密集型的出口产业迅速发展,依托出口加工贸易,外向度高的产业在东部地区加速集中。2005年前后,制造业特别是高外向度或高劳动密集度产业向中西部地区扩散和转移的趋势开始形成。(4)出口集聚促进产出集聚、贸易出口存在空间相关性是中国进行贸易出口的地区存在两个明显的空间特征。这使得贸易出口相比产出具有“更集聚”、“更沿海”、“更东南”的地理特征；出口贸易作为一种有较强示范效应和溢出效应的经济活动,在相互临近的地理区位上存在相关性,这在江苏县域单位的维度上得到了很好的证明。(5)中国制造业产业的贸易出口行为能显著地促进其地理集中度的提高,在贸易开放条件下,劳动密集型产业更加明显地表现出集聚的趋势；具有高税收产业的空间分布更为分散；各省区的出口贸易推动了其总体制造业在本地区的聚集；中国总体对外贸易成本的降低也有利于国内各地区制造业总体集聚率的提高；较高的地区经济发展水平、更发达的交通基础设施和处于沿海的地理优势都会显著地提高这些地区的制造业平均集聚率。(6)国内外市场获得(潜力)是我国城市经济发展差距的重要原因,在区域中心城市层面显得尤为突出,东部地区的城市具有靠近外部市场的地理特征,国外的市场获得的条件优于其他地区的城市,同时,东部地区城市群密集且经济规模较大,国内市场获得的优势更加明显,这导致了东中西部城市特别是区域中心城市的发展差距。而中西部中心城市发展滞后致使其辐射带动能力弱,这是中国区域发展失衡的重要原因。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the domestic reform and opening to the world, China has gradually made integration into the global economy comprehensively along with the rapid development of foreign trade. At the same time, profound changes have taken place in the domestic industrial geography ("industry" in this paper is limited to manufacturing):Most of the industry is gathering in the eastern coastal areas, the eastern provinces attract labor across the China and capital from around the world. From the mid-term in first decade of the 21st century, with the continued implementation of regional development policies, domestic and international economic integration continued to deepen, the labor-intensive industries in the eastern region began to gradually shift to the central and western regions, the domestic market’s influence for industrial spatial conformation increase relatively. But the advantage of coastal trade is still supporting the more export industry’s share in the eastern region.There is no doubt that the changes in the domestic industrial geography are relevant to the domestic market-oriented reforms, but also to foreign trade and globalization. NAFTA allows Mexico’s manufacturing dispersed in the US-Mexican border region of Mexico. EU integration intensified the development gap between north and south of Italy. Openness to the outside makes so many manufacturing clustered in the eastern coastal areas of China. Trade liberalization is an important force shaping the industrial geography. Trade liberalization enlarges the market scale. market scale is basic variable that the new economic geography theory explain the distribution of spatial distribution of industry:the larger market will allow companies with economies of scale production costs lower, which encourages the expansion of firm’s scale and attracts new companies stationed here; the other hand, the larger market is the result of the large number of businesses and consumers gathered there, market access, transport costs and factor mobility form the cumulative cycle. For larger countries (like China), different regions get different added market from the foreign trade and opening. Due to geographical proximity to foreign markets, eastern coastal areas have inherent advantages. Preferential state policies further strengthened this advantage. Facing the largest market, coastal areas is attracting businesses, and business’s demand for intermediate input and workers’ demand for the end product makes the market larger, so that the industry continued to gather in the east. But with the deepening of the domestic market integration, the role of the domestic market began to expand, industries and enterprises start to shift or spread. China’s industrial geography makes a new evolution. We make analysis of foreign trade on the impact of China’s industrial geography from both theoretical and empirical perspective. Compared with previous studies, improved the theoretical model, industrial geographical description of spatial characteristics, export trade, and geographical factors affecting industrial inspection, etc., are optimized and innovation in this paper.Based on the existing literature summarized, organized, and reviewed, We first develop a model to analyze the relations between the foreign trade and domestic industrial geography-a general equilibrium model that contains two countries three regions. This model can more accurately describe and explain the influence of the opening in foreign trade on China’s industrial geography through improvement of domestic transport costs and the asymmetry assumed in two regions. Next we using the improved gravity model to measure and analyze the cost of China’s foreign trade. Using the detailed classification of industries and regions, we describe and characterize the temporal evolution of China’s industrial geography, and on the basis of results we analyze the spatial characteristics of Chinese exports. The third part is the basis of existing research results combined with new trade theory, the theory of new economic geography theory to construct econometric equations, and using different indicators to verify the relationship between China’s industrial geography and foreign trade. Also using urban economy as a case we study the impacts of internal and external markets on regional development. Last is a summary of conclusions, policy implications and research prospects. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, the paper obtained the following main conclusions.(1) In the situation of two domestic asymmetric regions in the model of two countries and three regions, the opening of trade makes a geographical area with trade facilitation advantages gained first-mover advantage, making these areas become the place of industry agglomeration, and output elements is in this cluster, moreover this advantage is irreversible. Reduction in trade costs shows the role of external markets, which slowed the industry from trade facilitation area spread to other regions. Deterioration in external demand will intensify the trend of this shift.(2)Since the reform and opening, the bilateral trade cost of China has been a significant decline. On the spatial dimension, the distance and transportation costs in China and the European Union, the United States is more than China and Hong Kong, China Taiwan, ASEAN, South Korea and Japan, and the former is more than the latter in bilateral trade cost. On the time dimension, the effect WTO accession on China’s foreign trade cost reduction is obvious. On national dimension, China’s bilateral trade with the East Asian newly industrialized countries is less than other developed countries like the United States and Japan, and degree of decline is greater after the openness.(3)Economic globalization which is characterized by foreign trade liberalization and FDI facilitation impacts profoundly on China’s industrial geography. The geographical distribution, temporal and spatial evolution of different types of industry is quite different. Labor-intensive export industries have more rapid development. Relying on export processing trade, export-oriented industries are with high concentration in the eastern areas. After 2004-2005, export-oriented manufacturing, especially high or high degree of labor-intensive industry, begins to spread to the central and western regions.(4)Export agglomeration promotes the production agglomeration. There is spatial correlation in exports. This is the two spatial features about the export. Compared to the production, export has the following geographic features:more concentration, more coastal and more southeast. As an economic activity with strong demonstration effect and spillover effects, exports are approaching each other on the geographical location. This county unit in Jiangsu dimension has been well proven the fact.(5)The export of China’s manufacturing industries promotes the geographical concentration of these industries. On the condition of trade openness, labor-intensive industries are more apparent in the trend of concentration. The industries with high taxes are more dispersed distribution industries. The export trade in provinces will promote its overall industry agglomeration in these regions. Reduction of the cost of China’s foreign trade is conducive to the overall agglomeration of manufacturing industries of the regions. Areas with high level of economic development, more developed transport infrastructure and geographical advantages in the coastal city significantly increased the average concentration of manufacturing in these areas.(6)Domestic market access is an important reason for the gap of economic development in China’s regional urban. This is particularly prominent in urban centers. Due to the advantages of the eastern coast to foreign countries, foreign market access enhanced the gap:the advantages of the eastern region of trade advantages in foreign markets increased China’s central and western cities in economic development, the lag of the central and western central cities’development cause its weak radiating capacity, this is the important reason for the imbalance in regional development.更多还原