【作者】 谢勇；

【导师】 沈坤荣；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 理论经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,中国经济取得了令人瞩目的高增长,但也存在着明显的结构性矛盾。其中的一个突出表现就是最终消费率在近年来呈现出明显的下降趋势。与此相对应的则是中国居民的高储蓄行为,几乎所有的研究均显示,中国的居民储蓄率高于世界上绝大多数国家和地区。高储蓄、低消费的特点导致中国的经济增长长期依靠投资和出口的拉动,这不仅增加了经济运行的内在不稳定性,而且还可能带来一系列深层次问题。因此对中国居民储蓄率的影响因素进行全面而系统的研究已经成为学术界和政策制定者共同关心的问题。本文在生命周期—持久收入假说和预防性储蓄理论的基础上,结合中国转型经济的现实背景对中国居民储蓄率的影响因素进行了理论分析。并使用2006年中国综合社会调查数据(CGSS2006)并通过稳健的最小二乘法、可行的广义最小二乘法(FGLS)和分位数回归(Quantile Regression)的方法,以及1997-2008年的分省面板数据和系统广义矩(System GMM)的估计方法,分别从微观数据和宏观数据的角度进行了相关的实证检验,最后提出了相关的政策建议。本文的主要结论如下：(1)收入水平的上升和收入差距是中国居民高储蓄的重要原因。基于微观数据的计量检验显示：城乡居民的储蓄率与其持久收入和暂时收入之间均表现出显著的正相关关系,并且储蓄率对暂时性收入变化的反应更加敏感,而收入水平尤其是暂时收入对农村居民储蓄率的影响要大于城镇居民。基于宏观数据的研究不仅也得出了与此基本一致的结论,并且进一步发现：中国居民的储蓄行为具有显著的惯性,即当期的高储蓄往往存在着明显的长期效应。此外,本文还发现收入水平较高的家庭,其储蓄率也较高,收入差距的扩大将显著的提高中国居民的总体储蓄率。尽管中国居民储蓄的总体水平较高,但其中的绝大多数却集中于少数高收入家庭,居民之间储蓄差距甚至已经超过了收入差距。(2)不确定性因素对中国居民储蓄率同样具有重要影响。本文主要使用社会保险(主要是养老和医疗保险)的参与情况界定了城乡居民在日常生活中所面临的不确定性。无论是使用微观数据还是宏观数据,本文均发现：参加养老保险和医疗保险可以通过降低相关的不确定性,并显著降低居民的储蓄率。相比较而言,在考虑不确定性与预防性动机以后,本文的模型对城乡居民储蓄率的解释力度出现了明显的上升。而分位数回归的结果进一步显示：LC-PIH理论较为适合储蓄率处于中、低分位数上的居民储蓄行为；而处于较高分位数上的居民储蓄水平更多地受到不确定性因素的影响。并且从宏观的角度来看,政府公共支出中社会保障补助支出的比例与储蓄率之间也存在着显著的负相关关系。(3)人口年龄结构对中国居民储蓄率的总体影响比较微弱。与建立在西方社会经济条件下的倒U型的生命周期特征不同。本文基于微观数据的研究发现：中国的居民储蓄率存在着U型特征,即随着户主年龄的增加,居民储蓄率表现出先下降、后上升的趋势,尤其是考虑了家庭的教育、医疗支出以后,这一特征表现的更加明显。因此人口年龄结构对中国居民储蓄率的影响在总体上难以准确判断,而人口老龄化的过程只不过是一个高储蓄群体去取代另一个高储蓄群体,对居民储蓄率的总体影响可能比较微弱。而本文基于1997～2008年分省面板数据的研究进一步发现：少儿抚养比分别与城镇和农村居民的储蓄率之间存在着显著的负相关和正相关关系,老年抚养比没有城乡居民的储蓄率产生显著影响。而在总体上,人口年龄结构相关指标与居民储蓄率之间均没有表现出显著关系。(4)城乡二元结构显著提高了中国居民的储蓄率。由于历史和现实的原因,中国的社会、经济发展具有典型的城乡二元特征,城乡居民之间不仅存在着明显的收入差距,而农村中的公共产品和服务在也相对缺乏。本文的研究发现：教育和医疗支出对农村居民储蓄水平的影响程度明显高于城镇；而城乡二元结构特征总体上对居民储蓄率产生了显著影响,其中城市化水平与居民储蓄率之间存在着显著的负相关关系,而城乡居民收入差距的扩大则显著提高了居民储蓄率。(5)住宅状况对中国城镇居民的高储蓄存在显著影响。结合中国住宅供给制度的市场化改革以及近年来住宅价格的快速上升,本文从住宅获取方式、住宅价值的高低等角度对住宅状况影响居民储蓄率的机理进行了理论分析和实证检验,结果发现：市场化和非市场化的自有住宅获取方式分别与城镇家庭储蓄率之间存在显著的正相关和负相关关系,并且这一关系随着家庭住宅价值的上升而增强,考虑到大多数中国城镇家庭是通过市场化方式获取自有住房的,因此拥有住宅在总体上提高了城镇居民的储蓄率；此外,市场化的住宅获取方式显著的提高了中青年家庭的储蓄率,非市场化的住宅获取方式却显著的降低了中青年家庭的储蓄水平,这说明近年来高涨的住宅价格给中青年家庭带来了较为沉重的经济负担,但不同住宅获取方式对中老年家庭的储蓄率没有显著影响。(6)非农就业的发展显著降低了农村居民储蓄率。就业的非农化是近些年来中国农村中发生的最重要的变化之一。本文认为,非农就业的发展不仅会改变农民的收入水平和稳定性,甚至可能会影响农民的储蓄习惯和文化,从而对农村居民储蓄率产生重要影响。本文从外出务工和非农经营等两种最重要的非农就业形式出发,在对非农就业行为的内生性进行控制的情况下,通过实证研究发现：外出务工、非农经营等非农就业行为均显著的降低了农村居民储蓄率；其中外出务工对农户储蓄率的影响程度明显大于非农经营。尽管外出务工、非农经营导致农村居民教育、医疗支出的明显上升,但对基本生活费支出的增长效应相对较小。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since reform and opening, China has made remarkable high economic growth, but there are obvious structural problems. One of the outstanding performance is the final consumption rate showing downward trend in recent years. Corresponding to this is the high household savings rate in China, almost all studies show that China’s household savings rate is higher than most countries and regions. High savings, low consumption characteristics result means Chinese economic growth driven by investment and exports in long run, which not only increases the inherent instability of economic performance, but also may bring a deeper problem. Therefore, the comprehensive and systematic research about the determinants of household savings rate in China has become a common concern on academic and policy-makers.In this paper, on the base of life cycle-permanent income hypothesis(LC-PIH) and precautionary savings theory, we analysis the determinants of household savings rate in China on the background of transition economies, then, the paper use the China General Social Survey data in China in 2006 (CGSS2006) and the estimation of robust OLS, FGLS and quantile regression, and use Provincial panel data from 1997 to 2008 and the estimation of system GMM, through empirical tests on micro and macro data, respectively, some conclusions are drawn as followed:(1) The rise in income and income disparities is an important reason for high household savings rate in China. Empirical tests base on data CGSS2006 showed that: there is significant positive correlation between the household saving rate in urban and rural with permanent income and transitory income and saving rate is more sensitive to temporary income change, especially temporary income had more greater affection on rural household savings rate than urban household. The study based on macro data also obtained consistent conclusion, and further found that:the saving behavior of Chinese household had significant inertia, the current high savings are often obvious long-term effects. In addition, we also found that household with higher income had high saving rate, the income gap expansion will significantly increase the overall saving rate in China. That, the vast majority saving are concentrated in a few high-income household, the gap between household saving is even more than the income gap.(2) Uncertainty also has an important influence on household saving rate. This paper defined uncertainty as the participation of social insurance (mainly pension and health insurance). Whether the use of micro or macro data, we also found:the participation of pension insurance and medical insurance can reduce the uncertainty, and significantly reduce household saving rates. After considering the future uncertainty and precautionary motives, the interpretation of model on urban and rural household saving rate has significantly increased. The quantile regression results show:LC-PIH is more appropriate in the household saving rate of the low and median quantile; and the precautionary saving theory is more appropriate in the high quantile. And empirical tests on macro data shown that public expenditure on social security benefits significantly reduce household saving rates.(3) Population age structure has an relatively weak influence on household saving rate in China. Contrast on inverted U-shape characteristics of the life cycle in Western. Based on micro data study found that:there is a U-shape characteristics in China’s household saving rate, that means:as head of household age increased, the household saving rate first decline, then rise, especially after considering the family’s education, medical expenses, the U-shape characteristics is more evident. Therefore, there is difficultly in accurately judge impact of population age structure on China’s household saving rate in general, and during the process of population aging, one high saving groups would replace another, the overall household saving rate maybe be stable. The empirical tests on provincial panel data further found that:children dependency ratio has significantly the negative and positive correlation with urban and rural household saving rate, respectively, aged dependency ratio has no significantly correlation with the urban and rural household saving rate. In general, the indicators of population age structure has no significantly impact on household saving rate.(4) Urban-rural dual structure significantly improves the household saving rate in China. Due to historical and practical reasons, not only there is income gap between urban and rural household, but also rural public goods and services are relatively scarce. This study found that:the expenditure on education and health care has more significantly impact on rural household saving than urban; and urban-rural dual structure characteristics had a significant impact the whole saving rate, there is a significant negative correlation between urbanization with household saving rates and the widening in income gap between urban and rural would significantly increased household saving rate.(5) Housing conditions have significant effect on urban household high saving. After considering market-oriented reforms of housing supply system in China and the rapid rise in house prices in recent years, This paper discusses the mechanism of acquisition mode of house property, house wealth affecting household saving and empirical findings are:there are significantly positive correlation and negative correlation between market-oriented, non-market oriented approach to obtain own housing and urban household saving rate respectively, and owning house would rise saving rate because most of the Chinese urban households got their own houses by way of market-oriented approach. Besides, market-oriented approach of obtaining own housing would rise young family’s savings rate, and non-market-oriented way of obtaining own housing has significantly reduced the young family’s saving rate, but different ways of obtaining own housing would have no significant effect on the old household saving rate.(6)The off-farm employment significantly reduces the household saving rate in rural China. off-farm employment is the most important change in rural China in recent years. This paper argues that the development of non-agricultural employment will not only change the income levels and stability of peasants, and may even affect their the saving habits and culture, thereby have an important impact on rural household saving rate. this paper investigated the relationship between household saving ratio with the two most important forms of off-farm employment:migrant workers and off-farm business. After controlling the endogenous off-farm employment, the main conclusions are as follows:First, migrant workers, off-farm business significantly reduces the saving rate in rural household; Second, working as urban-rural migrant save more than off-farm business significantly; Third, off-farm employment increased expenditure of education, health care significantly in rural household, but the growth of basic living expenses are relatively small.更多还原