【作者】 易经纬；

【导师】 赵黛青； 胡秀莲；

【作者基本信息】 中国科学技术大学 ， 热能工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 全球气候变化是当今国际社会普遍关注的问题。在应对气候变化,减少CO₂排放的背景下,低碳发展被认为是未来社会经济的发展方式。广东是我国经济发展的重要省份,是我国改革开放的一个前沿阵地。从应对现实气候变化威胁的需求,保证经济发展、能源安全的需要,以及“先行先试”的责任三方面考虑,广东都必须向低碳经济转型。由于广东的电力部门排放了最多的CO₂,电力部门的低碳转型在技术上和经济上的具有可能,本文选择了广东电力部门对其低碳转型进行分析。本文采用情景分析结合构建经济模型的方法对广东电力低碳转型的可能路径、实现低碳转型所需政策以及转型后的经济影响进行了分析。为了分析广东电力未来的发展,本文首先分析了广东电力发展的历史和现状,以及广东社会经济发展趋势,在此基础上对未来广东的电力需求进行了合理的预测,同时构建了广东一次能源供给数据库、未来广东可用电力技术的数据库。为分析广东电力低碳转型的可能路径,本文构建了以成本最小化为目标的广东电力系统的技术经济模型,并在三种低碳约束下对广东电力未来的低碳可能进行分析。分析结果表明,到2020广东电力部门实现单位供电排放比2007年降低25%左右是最合适的低碳化目标。实现手段主要有:发展核电、关停小火电、提高火电效率、使用超临界和超超临界煤电、适当发展天然气发电、发展可再生能源发电主要是风电。其中,发展核电的减排贡献度最大为54.5%;其次,改善火电结构、提高火电效率,减排贡献度为33.6%;最后,发展可再生能源也很重要,减排贡献度为4.6%。为了研究促进广东电力低碳转型的政策,本文在广东电力系统的技术经济模型的基础上增加了政策分析模块。通过对碳税、补贴政策的分析研究,本文提出了适合广东电力低碳转型的综合碳税—补贴政策。结果表明,该政策可以消除单独实施碳税和补贴政策的缺点,发挥碳税和补贴政策的优点,可以有效抑制煤电等高CO₂排放的发电方式的发展和促进可再生能源的发展,实现广东电力的低碳转型。为了研究广东电力低碳转型的经济影响,本文构建了宏观经济分析模型,并通过连接函数使之与广东电力系统的技术经济模型耦合。通过耦合后的模型系统,研究了广东电力低碳转型对广东国民经济、价格指数以及就业的影响,并简单分析低碳转型对环境的影响。研究结果表明,广东电力低碳转型能够明显的促进地区生产总值的增长,促进就业,其中带动最大的是制造业和服务业,而广东电力低碳转型对价格指数的影响并不大。此外,广东电力低碳转型能够有效减少大气污染物的产生,改善环境。更多还原

【Abstract】 One of the major challenges confronting the international community is global climate change. In order to reduce CO₂ emissions and trackle climate change, low-carbon development has been considered as the best mode for the future. Guangdong is one of most important province in China’s economy and is an advanced position of China’s reform and opening. In order to trackle the climate change, ensure security of economic development and energy supply, and take the responsibility of―pilot‖, Guangdong has to try the transition to low-carbon economy.Since it consumes the largest share of primary energy and had the highest level of CO₂ emission and has technical and economic possibility, the electricity sector of Guangdong has been chosen to analyze the low-carbon transition firstly. In order to analyse the transition, scenario analysis method combined with economic model has been adopted to analyse the pathways, policy and economic effects.In order to analyze the future development of electricity system of Guangdong, The history of Guangdong electricity system and its current status has been investigated, and the trend of social and economic development of Guangdong has been analysed firstly. Based on those investigations and analyses, future electricity demands in Guangdong have been projected. In additional, databases of primary energy supply and available technologies have also been biult.To analyse the possible low-carbon transition pathway, a techno-economic model has been built with the objective function of minimizing the total cost of the electricity system during the investigation. Using the model, the developments of the electricity supply system of Guangdong have been investigated under different CO₂ emission constraints. The results of investigations show that considering costs, a 25% reduction （compared with 2007 levels） in CO₂ emissions from unit electricity supply by 2020 is possible. To achieve this target, several important actions are proposed. First, increasing the capacity of nuclear power plants may contribute 54.5% to CO₂ emission reduction. Second, improving the efficiency of thermal power plants may contribute 33.6% to CO₂ emission reduction; these efficiency measures include applying USC technology, decreasing the capacity of low-efficiency coal-fired power plants, and developing natural gas power properly. Third, exploiting renewable energy, mainly wind power, may contribute 4.6% to CO₂ emission reduction. To study policy for incenting the low-carbon transition, policy analysis module has been added to the techno-economic model. By using the model, the simple policies of CO₂ tax and subsidy for renewable power have been studied. Based on the studies, an optimal integrated CO₂ tax and subsidy policy has been designed to limit the negative impacts of simple CO₂ tax policy or simple subsidy policy. By implementing the integrated policy, the development of renewable power can be incented efficiently, the development of coal-fired power plant can be inhibited, and finally realize the low-carbon transition successfully.To study the economic impacts of low-carbon transition, a macroeconomic model has been built and coupled to the techno-economic model by connecting function. Using the model, the impacts of low-carbon transition on the economy of Guangdong, the price index, and employment have been anlaysed. In additional, a simple analysis of the environmental impacts of low-carbon transition has also been done. The results show that the low-carbon transition of Guangdong electricity will significantly promote the growth of GDP and the employment, in which the manufacturing and service contribute the most. Meanwhile, the impacts of low-carbon transiton on the price indexs are not too great. In addition, the low-carbon transition can reduce the generation of air pollutants effectively, and protect the environment.更多还原