【作者】 汪友结；

【导师】 吴次芳；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 城市土地作为物质空间容纳了各种生产及创造性活动,进行着各种物质与能量交换,提供了社会及人类发展的空间与平台,而城市节能减排则对全球气候与环境的影响意义重大,因此两者结合而形成的城市土地低碳利用研究将成为城市科学及环境科学领域研究的新热点。城市土地低碳利用研究直接涉及城市经济、社会、资源与环境等多方面内容和城市生产、建设与生活等多项主体,是一个开放、复杂的系统性问题。进行城市土地低碳利用研究,促进低碳城市发展,需要对影响城市土地利用CO2排放的因素进行定性分析、定量研究与模型计算,进而有针对性的提出相应的降碳措施,并最终为城市资源环境问题的改善以及城市节能减排目标的实现提供理论依据和实践支持。本文将低碳经济引入城市土地利用之中,在深度剖析城市土地低碳利用的基本内涵的基础上,从系统学角度出发构建了城市土地低碳利用的系统概念模型,进而对城市土地低碳利用依次进行了外部现状描述、内部静态测度和动态协调控制的深入分析,并以江苏省南京市为例进行了相应的实证研究。就系统概念模型的构建而言,城市土地低碳利用主要体现在对城市土地利用的总体碳源控制、各分项城市建设用地利用的碳排放控制以及城市陆地生态系统碳汇能力提升三个方面,其中又以第二个层面最为关键,这也是本文进行相关研究的主要着力点；而从系统学角度来看,城市土地低碳利用按其构成部分的等级高低可以相继分解成目标层、子系统层、要素层和变量层四个层次。在外部现状描述部分,本文在阐述城市土地利用的碳排放量测算方式和碳吸收量估算方法的基础上,进行了城市土地利用的净碳排放测算,进而在此基础上依次进行了内部关联角度的城市土地低碳利用要素交互协同发展状况分析和外部关联角度的城市土地利用碳排放与城市经济发展脱钩分析。实证研究发现,行政区划调整对南京市城市土地低碳利用的外部表现有较大的影响,而在1996-2007年间,南京市城市土地利用的总碳排放量远远大于陆地生态系统的碳吸收量且两者之间的差距有逐渐扩大的发展趋势；南京市城市土地低碳利用各构成要素之间的相互作用程度较为明显,且1996-2007年南京市经济增长与土地利用总碳排放的总脱钩指数为0.45,土地利用总碳排放量的GDP弹性系数为0.27,处于相对脱钩状态。在内部静态测度部分,本文在建立内部静态测度指标体系的基础上,依次对城市土地低碳利用的要素影响变量障碍程度进行了时间序列的测度分析和对城市土地低碳利用的区际发展水平进行了空间布局的测度分析。实证分析表明,从总体上来看南京市城市土地低碳利用在曲折反复中还是逐步朝好的方向发展,而文通用地和工业用地对南京市城市土地低碳利用发展的贡献作用最大,且2007年影响南京市城市土地低碳利用的最主要的障碍因素指标是交通用地的交通减排系数；南京市城市土地低碳利用水平在江苏省内处于领先位置,而江苏省经济发展最好的苏南地区在城市土地低碳利用方面的现实水平却呈现出最低,且实施集团上跃难度最小和最大的城市分别为镇江市和苏州市,最易出现集团序下滑和最不易出现集团序下滑的城市则分别为宿迁市和南通市。在动态协调控制部分,本文在借鉴多级递阶协调控制理论的基础上,以城市土地低碳利用的动态预警设计为基本依据来构建了城市土地低碳利用的控制器,并从管理、系统以及程序三维角度出发来构建了城市土地低碳利用的协调器,进而实现城市土地低碳利用动态协调控制体系的整体构建。实证研究显示,若继续保持目前的城市土地利用现状,则从2010年到2020年间,南京市城市土地低碳利用碳源子系统的综合警情将会出现从轻警向巨警过渡的发展趋势,且对南京市未来城市土地低碳利用造成威胁大小的排列顺序依次为交通用地、工业用地、商办用地和居住用地；在制定具体的协调控制策略时,应在充分考虑南京市相关实证分析结果的基础上,遵循多级递阶协调控制的基本思路,从管理角度、系统角度和程序角度三个层面出发,制定可操作性较强、实施效果明显的具体策略,具体包括优化现有土地利用结构与合理规划未来土地利用格局、科学创建城市土地低碳利用的管理机制、全面优化城市土地利用的产业结构、大力调整城市土地利用的能源体系、充分发挥市场机制在优化城市土地低碳利用中的基础性作用以及积极倡导城市土地低碳利用的消费理念等。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a physical space to accommodate a variety of production and creative activity, and exchange a variety of material and energy, urban land provides the space and platform for social and human development. Meanwhile, the energy saving and (?)rbon reducing of the urban is of great significance on the global climate and environment. Therefore, as a combination of both them stated above, the low-carbon using of urban land will be the new hot spot of the study on the urban science and environmental science.The low-carbon using of urban land is an open, complex systemic problem, directly related to economy, society, resource, environment and many other fields in the content, and related to production, construction, life and many other factors on the subject. To promote the development of low-carbon city, the study firstly need to emphasize on the qualitative analysis, quantitative research and modeling calculation on the factors of carbon emission. And then, it has to focus on appropriate measures to reduce carbon emission, and ultimately to provide a theoretical basis and practical support both on improving the resourceful’and environmental issues and on achieving the target on the energy saving and carbon reducing.This article introduces the low-carbon economy into the study field of the urban land using, and constructcs a conceptual system model which is based on the depth analysis of the basic connotation of low-carbon using of urban land. Furthermore, it successively launchs the in-depth analysis on the system from the level on the external status description, internal static measurement and dynamic coordination control, and takes the Nanjing city of Jiangsu province as an example to the corresponding empirical research.In terms of constructing the conceptual system model, the low-carbon using of urban land is mainly reflected in the control of the overall carbon source, the control of carbon emission on the kinds of construction land and the enhancement of carbon-sinking capacity of the urban terrestrial ecosystems. Among them, the second level is the key factor which is related to this article on the main landing point. From the systematic point of view, the system stated above may have been broken down into four levels which include target layer, subsystem layer, element layer and variable layer according to the grade of the components.In order to initially grasp the basic situation, this article firstly develops the corresponding external description, which is based on the measurement of the carbon emission, the carbon sinking and the net carbon emission of urban land using. Secondly, the collaborative interaction analysis on the element layer is implemented from the inter-associated point of view. To the third, it carries out the decoupling analysis between the urban carbon emission and the urban economic development from the exter-associated point of view. The empirical study on the city of Nanjing finds that the adjustment of administrative divisions has a greater impact on the external performance. In 1996 to 2007, the total carbon emission is far greater than the carbon sinking in terrestrial ecosystems volume and the gap between the two factors is widened step by step. Moreover, the interaction between the elements is obvious, and from 1996 to 2007, when the total decoupling index between the total economic growth and the total carbon emission is 0.45, the GDP elasticity of carbon emission is 0.27. which manifests a relatively decoupled state.Viewed as a complex system behavior, the low-carbon using of urban land should be comprehensively carried on the measure of internal static situation, which aims at finding out the key factors constraining and impeding in healthy development of the system in order to optimize the urban land-use. By creating an internal static measurement indicator system, the solution to this plan is to click on the time-series analysis on the barriers degree of the variable layer and the region-layout analysis on the development level from the perspective within static measurement. The empirical study finds that in general the low-carbon using of urban land in Nanjing city has a trend toward the right direction gradually in spite of the setbacks repeated, when the transporting land and the industrial land have the rather greater effect on contributing to the development. Furthermore, in 2007 the most important barrier is the indicator of the carbon reducing coefficient of transporting land. Then, when Nanjing city has the leading positon in Jiangsu province, the developed cities in south show the reality of the lowest level. Between the Group, Zhenjiang City has the smallest difficulty on jumping and Suzhou City has the largest one, when Nantong City has the smallest possibility on declining and Suqian City has the largest one.For the continuous monitoring on the development trend and the more effectively improving on the level of decision-making, it is need to implement the dynamic coordination analysis. Considering the complexity, this article learns from the multi-level hierarchical coordinated control theory to carry on the analysis, which includes the step of taking the dynamic early warning as the fundamental basis to build low-carbon using controller on one hand and the step of taking the managemental means, systemic means and programmed means as the three-dimensional perspective to build low-carbon using coordinator on the other hand. The empirical study shows that if Naning city will continue to maintain the current status from 2010 to 2020, the comprehensive warning condition of the carbon-source subsystem will has the transition from mild to huge, and the order of the size of the future threats will be arranged as the transporting land, the industrial land, the commercial-office land and the residential land. In terms of creating the specific control strategies, it is need to consider the empirical analysis of Nanjing city stated above. By following the basic ideas of the multi-level hierarchical coordinated control, this article puts forward the strong-operated and well-targeted strategies from the view of management, system and procedure, which specifically include the optimization of the existing land structure, the rational planning for the future pattern on land using, the scientific creation of the management mechanism, the optimization of the industrial structure, the actively adjustment on the energy system, the exertion of the fundamental role of the market mechanism, and the actively promoting of the consumption concepts.更多还原