【作者】 方付建；

【导师】 王国华；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 行政管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 自20世纪90年代中国接入互联网络以来,网络逐渐实现了社会化,并作为“第四媒体”发挥着强大的舆情表达和传递功能。在突发事件发生、发展和变异过程中,因事件衍生的新闻报道、网民态度和观点等网络舆情在网络中形成扩散态势和井喷效应。而因日益分化的网民、多样媒体等积极作为,突发事件网络舆情演变具有了不确定性、复杂性和变动不居的特点,这给公众认知以及政府引导突发事件网络舆情带来了极大困难。围绕突发事件发生后网上会呈现什么样舆情,舆情在哪些因素作用下产生,呈现什么样的发展态势和规律等问题,本文以突发事件网络舆情为研究对象,以网络舆情演变为核心议题,运用生命周期理论,将突发事件网络舆情演变分为孕育、扩散、变换和衰减四个阶段,并对每个阶段的舆情议题展开研究。在突发事件网络舆情孕育问题上,从网络、网民、媒介等间接角度及事件信息缺失、裁决失当等直接角度归纳了舆情孕育动因。将舆情孕育作用要素分为网民、媒体、政府和当事人,并构建了简化的行为动机和方式模型。考察了记者、公民记者等舆情孕育“第一行为者”和新闻留言板、论坛等舆情诱致平台。提出舆情孕育可表现为文字、图片、表情、点击记录等形态,并指出舆情孕育具有随机性、反管制性等特点。在突发事件网络舆情扩散方面,从网民利益表达、媒介议程设置、政府合法性、当事人维权等维度及信息不对称、注意力抢夺等角度阐释了舆情扩散的外显和内隐动力。指出舆情扩散载体多元多样,并基于典型案例分析了舆情扩散路径。提炼出舆情扩散的交互、共振、逆反和极化规律及聚焦、散焦、弥漫、叠加、膨胀、施压等效应。然后从政府管控性和引导性策略及当事人积极性和消极性策略等角度构建了舆情扩散阻滞因素模型。在突发事件网络舆情变换方面,认为事件本身、政府行为、网民兴趣、媒体报道等变化会促动舆情变换。从形态、类型、指向和关系等四个维度分析了舆情变换问题。并从客观性和主观性相结合的角度,构建了舆情变换的分析变量和监测量表。在突发事件网络舆情衰减方面,指出舆情衰减不仅包括舆情消失,还包括舆情被替代、影响力弱化等,并从三个层面、九个维度构建了舆情衰减的认知框架。为监测舆情衰减,从量、度、效和传等层面构建了舆情衰减的监测机制。将舆情衰减的发生条件分解成舆情源减少、通道窄化、标的物消失等。并从正反两方面对舆情衰减的意义和问题进行了分析。在对突发事件网络舆情演变各阶段进行细致阐释基础上,围绕突发事件网络舆情演变的作用者类型、作用者行为动机及作用者行为策略等问题,依据要素提取和关系模拟的分析方式,构建了突发事件网络舆情演变作用者的动机模型和行为策略模型,以从整体角度理解突发事件网络舆情何以演变和因何演变。然而,突发事件网络舆情现象纷繁复杂,变动不居。本文提供了认知突发事件网络舆情演变的一般性、抽象化“进程图谱”。而如果着眼于特定突发事件、或舆情演变的技术监测,或将“突发事件”和“网络舆情”这两个关键词重新匹配,则可发现突发事件网络舆情研究任重道远。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the 1990s China has interconnected with network, the network has realized socialization gradually, and it is playing an increasingly important function for public opinions expression and transfer as the fourth media. In process of the occurrence, development and variation of an unexpected event, the public opinion is forming the diffusion situation and blowout effect on account of the coverage of media, the attitude and view of netizens which derived from an unexpected event. With the increasingly differentiated netizens and multiple medium, the evolution of the public opinions of unexpected events is now presenting the characteristics of being uncertain, complex and fluctuant which make it difficult for the public awareness and government guidance of the public opinions.What kind of public opinions will show after the occurrence of unexpected events, and what factors are playing an important role and what tendency and rules the public opinions will present? Focusing on these questions, this paper aims at studying the public opinions on the internet and emphasizes on the evolution of them. By employing the theory of life cycle, this paper divides the evolution of public opinions of unexpected events into four parts, that is, breeding, diffusion, transformation and attenuation and every part will be discussed in details.This paper analyzes the birth of the public opinion from the indirect aspects like the network, the netizens, and the media and from the direct aspects like the loss of information, the misconduct ruling and so on. It constructs a simplified model of the motivation and methods of the factors of the birth about network public opinion, and studies the "primary actor" such as journalists and citizen journalists and the vector such as the news message boards and forum which are the birthplaces of the public opinion on network. The results show that the public opinion on network can be expressed through text, images, expressions and click records and so on, and point out the randomness, anti-regulatory features of the birth of public opinion.This paper explains the dominant power from aspects like the expression of the interests of netizens, the agenda setting of media, the legitimacy of government and the recessive power from the asymmetric information, and the competition of attention resources. Meanwhile, it points out the vector of public opinion variety and the diffusion path of the public opinion based on typical cases, refining the law of diffusion of the public opinion which involves interact, resonance, inversion and polarization; the corresponding effects are focus, defocus, diffuse, overlay, expansion, and pressure. Afterwards, the model of diffusion of public opinion is constructed from the aspects of government control, guiding strategies and the positive and negative strategy from parties.The public opinion can be changed by the event, the government action, the interest of netizens and the coverage of media. The paper analyses the change of public opinion from forms, class degree, point and relationships and constructs the variables of the change of public opinion and the monitoring scale from the combination of the objectivity and subjectivity.The attenuation of the public opinion includes not only the disappearance of public opinion, but also the replacement and the weakening of the influence. This paper analyses the framework of the attenuation from three levels and nine dimensions and constructs the monitoring mechanism of the attenuation of the public opinion from the aspect of quantity, degree, efficiency and transmission. The conditions of the attenuation of public opinion are revolved into the reduction of the source of the attenuation, the narrowing of the channel, the disappearing of subject matter of the public opinion. This passage analyzes both the significance and problems of the attenuation of the public opinion from positive and negative aspects.This paper focuses on the motive and the strategy of the leader who stimulates the evolution of public opinion based on the careful explanation of various stages’evolution of public opinion. In terms of the analysis mode of extracting factors and simulating the relations, constructing the models of the leader’s motive and strategy, therefore we can understand how and why the public opinion is evolving from the overall angles.This paper analyses the complex phenomenon, fluctuant evolution, and the "process map" which describe the generality and abstraction of the evolution of public opinion. Focusing on the particular unexpected event, the monitoring techniques of the evolution of public opinion, or rematch the key words of "unexpected event" and "public opinion on network", then we can find that the study of public opinion on emergencies shoulders heavy responsibilities.更多还原