【作者】 许可；

【导师】 周建中；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 系统分析与集成， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 大型水利枢纽工程在防洪、发电、供水、航运等诸多方面发挥巨大作用的同时,也对河流生态系统造成了胁迫效应,从而不同程度地影响了流域的生态过程,在此背景下,研究并开展水利工程的生态调度,从而保护和恢复河流健康生境显得尤为重要。面向生态修复与保护的水电能源联合优化运行和管理及其效益响应的综合研究与经济、生态、环境等诸多方面密切相关,是水利水电工程学科的一个前瞻性研究论题,面临众多理论瓶颈和技术难题,是现代流域尺度复杂水电能源与生态环境、经济环境耦合系统跨学科理论与技术研究的前沿领域。生态安全背景下长江中上游梯级水电能源联合优化运行问题是在生态需求、水文循环、调度模式等复杂约束集合条件下的大型、动态、离散、非凸的非线性多目标优化问题,较传统水电能源优化调度复杂得多。为此,本文针对梯级水库群水电联合优化调度亟需考虑的诸多生态安全问题,引入现代水电能源科学、系统科学、生态学和经济学原理与方法,对面向生态调度的流域梯级电站联合优化调度及决策的理论和方法开展了深入的研究,取得了一些具有理论意义和工程实际价值的成果,主要研究工作及创新成果如下:(1)对流域水电开发对河流生境造成的影响进行了归纳总结,在此基础上利用统计学的方法,从水文角度分析了三峡水库建设运行对流域生境的胁迫,并通过R/S法、Mann-Kendall法等方法解析天然河道建坝前后水文序列的变化趋势,从而确定了典型河道生境胁迫的起始年份,并应用数理统计方法进行了检验。(2)对生态调度目标中可控性较强的生态径流过程进行了重点研究,在总结了国内外广泛应用的生态径流过程确定方法的基础上,结合河流自然水文节律分析,提出了面向生态流组的生态径流过程确定方法,并分别从流域整体生态需求和典型生物资源需求两个角度对长江中上游宜昌断面的生态径流过程进行了全面的实证分析,为流域生态径流过程研究提供了新的思路。(3)针对三峡梯级水利枢纽建成后生态调度的新要求,建立了以生态径流过程为约束的梯级水电站生态调度模型,该模型以梯级系统总发电量最大为目标函数,分别考虑流域整体生态需求和典型生物资源需求两个角度的复杂生态约束,并提出基于全局寻优的离散微分动态规划算法对该模型进行了有效求解。(4)针对三峡梯级电站调度过程中生态效应和经济效益均衡问题,建立了综合考虑生态和经济目标的多目标生态调度模型,提出了衡量生态效益的指标体系用以量化生态目标。提出了一种新的多目标进化算法一基于ε支配的自适应多目标差分进化算法,典型测试函数的优化结果表明,算法在求解过程中表现出的收敛性能和多样性能,较有代表性的多目标进化算法有一定程度的改善。结合上述算法和三峡梯级多目标生态调度模型,仿真模拟得出一系列非劣调度方案集,为三峡梯级生态调度提供了可靠的决策依据。(5)多目标调度和决策的目的是根据决策者的需要确定最佳调度方案,本文提出了一种基于模糊测度分类融合的多属性决策方法,该决策方法使用模糊测度分类融合的方法综合各种决策方法的评估结果,并在过程中通过历史训练确定决策方法的重要性,并依据上述信息对梯级电站多目标生态调度方案进行优选排序,获得了令决策者满意的最终生态调度方案,从而提供了新的有效方法解决梯级电站生态调度多属性决策问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The construction and operation of large hydro project play a significant role in many aspects such as flood control, power generation, water supply, and shipping, but also it caused the stress effects on the river ecosystem and affects the ecological health in different degrees. In this context, it is very important to carry out the ecological operation of the hydro project to protect and restore habitats of river health. The hydropower Joint optimization of energy management considering the ecological restoration and protection and its effective response closely related with economic, ecological and environmental theory and so on, it is a prospective research topics in water resources and hydropower engineering discipline facing many bottlenecks and theory technical problems and it is the frontier technology research of modern watershed scale hydropower energy and environment, the interdisciplinary theory of coupled system of economic and environment. The hydropower joint optimization in the upper reaches of the Yangtze in the context of ecological safety is a dynamic, discrete, non-convex nonlinear multi-objective optimization problem with the constraints of ecological needs of running, the hydrological cycle, generation control, operation mode, operation mode and other complex electrical behaviors, so is much more complex than traditional optimal operation of hydropower. Therefore, this paper aim at the many ecological security problem in the joint optimal scheduling of cascade hydropower reservoirs, introduce the principles and methods of modern hydropower energy science, system science, ecology and economics, make research in theory and method of ecological operation of the joint optimization of reservoir scheduling, made some results which have theoretical significance and practical value. Major research and innovation are as follows:(1) The impacts which the hydropower development influenced on river habitat are summarized, based on this by using statistical methods, the impacts of the construction and operation of Three Gorges reservoir on river basin habitats are analyzed from a hydrological point, and through the R/S, Mann-Kendall method and other methods, the change trends in hydrological series of natural and post-dam is analyzed to determine the starting year of habitat stress in a typical river, and mathematical statistical methods have been used for test.(2) Focus on the environmental flow process which is controllable in the target of ecological operation. Based on the summary of the widely used method for determining ecological runoff process, combin the rhythm of the river natural hydrological analysis, propose the determination of environmental flow process based on eco-hydrological events, make comprehensive empirical analysis on the ecological runoff process of Yichang section in Yangtze River in the requirements of the whole basin and specific biological resources, provide new ideas for the study of ecological runoff process.(3) Aim at the new requirements of the ecological operation of the Three Gorges cascade power station, establish an ecological operation model with constraints of ecological runoff process, the model takes maximum ensuring output of system as objective function, consider the ecological requirements of the whole basin and specific biological resources as respectively and solve the model by the discrete differential dynamic programming algorithm based on global optimization.(4) Aim at the balance problem between the ecological and economic benefit of the Three Gorges cascade reservoirs, build an multi-objective ecological operation which consider the ecological and economic goals, propose an indicators system to mesure the ecological benefit and quantify the ecological objectives, put forward a new multi-objective evolutionary algorithm--multi-objective adaptive differential evolution algorithm based onεdominance, the typical test functions optimization results show that this algorithm have some advantage on the typical multi-objective evolutionary algorithms in the convergence and diversity of solving problem. Combine the algorithm above and the multi-objective ecological operation of Three Gorges model, obtained a series of non-inferior set of scheduling by simulation, and provides a reliable basis for decision making of ecological operation of Three Gorges cascade power station.(5) The purpose of multi-objective scheduling and decision-making is to determine the optimal scheduling scheme based on the preference of policy makers. This paper proposes a multi attribute decision making method based on fuzzy measure with classification and fusion, the method uses fuzzy measures and the classification method for the integrated assessment, determine the importance of training with historical data in the process of decision making, then sort multi-objective ecologica scheduling program of the cascade power station, obtain the final ecological operation programs which satified the decision makers, so that to provide a new and effective ways to solve multi-objective decision making problem of ecological operation of cascade hydropower stations更多还原