【作者】 张晓鹏；

【导师】 刘则渊；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 从危机事件的高频次、大规模、波动方式多元、危害性严重等特点来看,目前我国已进入危机发展的“非稳定状态”阶段。通过分析公共危机的复杂性,形成完善的危机管理系统,更有效地预防、处理公共危机事件,减少人民群众生命财产损失,是全面贯彻落实科学发展观、构建社会主义和谐社会的必然选择。本研究从以下几方面对公共危机管理系统的构建与危机管理系统的能力评价进行了深入探讨。首先,对公共危机管理的相关理论问题进行了阐述,界定危机、公共危机、危机管理、危机管理系统等概念,对这些概念的内涵和外延进行了多角度的描述。通过知识图谱的方法,描述了当前危机管理研究的前沿与热点,更好地体现出危机管理问题的历史沿革与未来研究方向。其次,从系统科学和复杂性科学的角度阐述危机发生到扩散的过程,指出系统的无序性和危机发展过程具有一致性,进而可以用熵值来度量危机的演化阶段。公共危机的形成是局部系统崩溃引发相关系统崩溃及至整体系统的有序运行发生变化的过程,虽然系统本身具有一定的抵御无序性的能力,但多数时候局部系统的崩溃会有引发整体系统动荡的可能。上述过程往往是不可预测的,且可能在瞬间爆发,这在很大程度上削弱了危机管理系统的预警预测功能,更多地需要依赖危机管理系统整体作用的发挥来抵御危机事件。再次,在借鉴国内外学者研究成果的基础上,提出了一个完整的危机管理系统双层级建构模型,即危机管理系统由支撑层系统(包括组织决策子系统、信息管理子系统、资源支持子系统)、执行层子系统(包括警预测子系统、危机处理子系统、危机恢复子系统)构成,并分析了各子系统的结构、功能和运行协调机制。最后,根据本研究提出的公共危机管理系统,利用组合权重模糊物元和问卷调查的方法,评价了近年来我国发生的几次比较有影响的危机事件的管理过程。研究认为,危机管理系统的能力具有可测性,测度目标是衡量管理系统的运行情况,测度对象是公共危机管理系统针对特定危机事件所做出的反应(即对危机的处理情况),测度主体是社会民众。本研究运用相关定量方法的测度结果和社会舆论的反应基本一致。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the high frequency, large scale, fluctuations in multiple ways and a serious hazard of events crisis, present, China has entered a "non-steady state" of the frequency phase. Through complexity analysis of public crisis, the formation of a sound risk management systems and emergency plans is the inevitable choice of comprehensively implement the scientific development concept and building a socialist harmonious society. In this study, the following aspects of public management systems for the construction and ability evaluation carried out in depth.First, the theory of public crisis management issues are described, defines the crisis, public crisis, crisis management, crisis management systems and other related concepts of connotation and extension of these concepts were described in multiple perspectives. Through knowledge mapping method, described in the forefront of the current crisis management research and hot, to better reflect the history of crisis management issues and future research directions.Secondly, from the perspective of systems science and complex science of the crisis spread from parts to the whole process of evolution, that the system crisis of the disorder and the development of consistent, then the entropy can be used to measure the evolution of the crisis stage. The formation of public crisis triggered the collapse of the local system until the system crashes related to the orderly operation of the whole system change process, although the system itself has a certain ability to withstand the increase in disorder, but most of the time will trigger the collapse of the local system, the overall system the possibility of unrest. The process is often unpredictable, and instantaneous possible outbreak, which greatly reduced the role of crisis management forecasts, more dependent upon the role of crisis management system as a whole to resist.Again, based on the results of home and abroad scholars, the paper proposed a complete crisis management system, specifically including the organization of decision-making systems, information management systems, resources, support systems and other support layer system, early warning and forecast system, crisis management system, crisis recovery system and other executive level system.Finally, based on the public crisis management system raised by this study, use of fuzzy matter-element combined weights and survey methods, evaluation of several large crisis management system for processing capability problems. Through research, we think that the crisis management system capability is scalability, the capability measure goal of crisis management system is to measure the health of running in management system, the object of measure is the response public crisis management system to a particular crisis (that is, the crisis disposition), the main of measure are social people; In this study, the measurement results of quantitative methods and response of public opinion are consistent.更多还原