【作者】 李芬花；

【导师】 纪昌明；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 改变电源结构,充分利用清洁能源,加快水利水电工程建设,提高水利水电工程系统抗风险能力,对构建资源节约型及绿色能源型社会具有重要意义。我国十二五规划明确提出要大力发展水利水电工程建设,目前在水利水电工程建设的各个阶段相关风险评估已经有大量的研究成果,但现有的方法和模型大多以水利水电工程系统的局部作为研究对象,存在风险局限性的缺陷,有必要对水利水电工程建设从规划、勘测、设计、施工到运行管理整体风险评估理论及方法进行更深入研究。本文以水利水电工程系统为研究对象,充分考虑水利水电工程建设各个阶段之间风险的相互影响,从A.D.HALL方法、模糊数学方法、权重分析方法、系统风险分析和评价等不同角度深入研究了水利水电工程系统的风险分析及评估方法问题。同时在理论研究成果的基础上展开应用研究,期望达到完善水利水电工程建设风险评估理论的目的,并能为水利水电工程安全评估提供理论参考。本文的主要工作如下：(1)水利水电工程系统的分析方法研究。给出了水利水电工程系统的定义,在此基础上全面总结了水利水电工程系统从规划、设计、施工、运行到管理各阶段存在的风险因素,探讨了水利水电工程系统整体风险特性、功能及结构等特点,采用Ansys有限元方法研究了设计阶段系统元素风险对系统的影响。(2)水利水电工程系统的风险识别及管理研究。探讨了水利水电工程系统中大量的不确定性风险因素,采用数据挖掘及技术评估表对这些不确定的风险因素进行设别,在此基础上以概率论方法、专家打分法、蒙特卡罗方法、直接积分法、大系统目标规划法对水利水电工程系统风险评估进行研究。(3)水利水电工程系统A.D.HALL三维结构模型研究。从风险后果及数据挖掘的角度分析了水利水电工程系统风险的不确定性及相应的风险管理方法,将A.D.HALL理论引入到水利水电工程系统中,创建了水利水电工程系统A.D.HALL三维结构模型；通过对系统霍尔三维结构模型中每一个小的单元进行风险评估从而得出水利水电工程系统存在的风险。依据水利水电工程系统相对定性的安全评估准则,实现评估水利水电工程整体风险程度的目的。(4)基于A.D.HALL三维结构模型的水利水电工程系统的风险评估方法研究。首次采用层次分析法(AHP法)对水利水电A.D.HALL系统进行了研究,确定了该系统中各风险因素对大系统风险的影响,构建了水利水电A.D.HALL矩阵的层次模型,在此基础上通过层次分析法,创建了水利水电大系统中的目标层、准则层、方案层,判断矩阵及方案层的判断矩阵,将水利水电建设过程中每一个阶段的风险进行整合,最后通过对水利水电系统A.D.HALL的风险评估,达到评估水利水电工程系统的目的,从而解决了水利水电系统整体风险的评估方法问题。通过算例计算验证了该方法的可行性。(5)水利水电工程系统的风险模糊综合评判方法研究。结合水利水电工程系统失效的实际问题,将系统的失效概率以模糊数的形式表示,以事件的发生可能性代替事件的发生概率,通过模糊计算法得到事件发生的平均值及偏差程度,从而得出事件的可能性分布,进而系统地研究了水利水电工程系统的失效概率；根据水利水电工程系统风险指标评估体系,应用模糊分析方法对水利水电工程系统各阶段风险因子进行研究,推导出水利水电工程系统的权重系列,创建了水利水电工程系统风险模糊综合评判方法,通过算例计算验证了该方法的实用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 To build a resource-saving and green energy-based society, it is very important to change the structure of electric power sources through making full use of clean energy, and therefore to speed up the construction of water conservancy and hydropower projects, and to enhance the anti-risk ability of the water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Systems. The Chinese Government will devote major efforts to developing hydropower in its "12th Five-Year Plan". Presently many researches have been achieved on the risk assessment for deferent development stages of the water conservancies and hydropower projects, but most of these assessment methods and models are based on a part of the water resources and hydropower engineering system and this may lead to localization results. Therefore it is necessary to investigate in-depth the risk assessment theory and methods for the entire process of the water conservancy and hydropower projects development, including their planning, design, construction and operation management.In this dissertation, taking the Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering System (WCHES) as the object of study and considering the interactions among the risks of deferent development stages of the water conservancy and hydropower projects, the risk analysis and assessment methods for the WCHES were presented with different methods, such as A. D. HALL method, Fuzzy Mathematics, Weight Analysis Method, Systemic Risk Analysis and Assessment Method, etc. These theoretical research results were applied to the real engineering projects to improve the risk assessment theory and to provide theoretical guidance for safety assessment of water conservancy and hydropower engineering projects. Main contributions of this dissertation can be summarized as follows:(1) Analysis methods for WCHES were presented. Based on the definition of ACHEC, the risk factors were summarized for the all development stages, including planning, designing, construction, operation and management. The characters, functions, and structures of the holistic risk of WCHES were studied, and the impacts of the system risk element at the designing stage on system were investigated using finite element method with Ansys software.(2) Study on the Risk Identification and Management for the system of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering. This subject discussed a large number of uncertainly risk factors in the system of water conservancy and hydropower engineering, identified these uncertainly risk factors by the use of data mining and technology assessment form, on the basis of that, the subject took measures such as probability method, the export scoring method, Monte Carlo method, the direct integration method, Large-scale system goal programming method to do research on the risk assessment for the system of water conservancy and hydropower engineering.(3) The 3D model of A. D. HALL for WCHES was established. The uncertainty and the risk management for WCHES were analyzed from the perspectives of risk consequence and data mining, and the 3D model of A.D. HALL for WCHES was proposed by applying the A. D. HALL theory. The risk of the WCHES can be obtained through assessing the risk of each small component of the established 3D A. D. HALL model. The entire risk of a water conservancy and hydropower project can be assessed based on the relatively qualitative safety assessment criterion of WCHES.(4) Risk assessment methods for WCHES were studied based on 3D A.D. HALL Model.Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Systems are further discussed by adopting different ways such as the system theory, A.D.HALL, fuzzy, risk analysis and evaluation, etc. in the Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Systems risk analysis and assessment methods.In this article the water conservation water and electricity engineering system has been defined first.Based on this the methods of risk factor recognition have analyzed about the water conservation water and electricity engineering system.By the large-scale systems theory of A.D.HALL theory, the system of the water conservancy and hydropower project has been expressed its project’s construction’s entire process by the A.D.HALL three dimensional structure drawing.Through appraising the A.D.HALL each small unit risk of three-dimensional structure, thus the risk of system can be obtained.In this article, the water conservancy and hydropower project to build a system of three-dimensional structure of A.D.Hall. The complex of water conservancy and hydropower engineering, systems theory approach to the analysis. Water conservancy and hydropower projects on the A.D.Hall system analysis of three-dimensional structure to understand the progress of the construction of water conservancy and hydropower projects, and to carry out macro-control whole project. Keep abreast of water conservancy and hydropower project under construction, and is currently under construction for water conservancy and hydropower engineering problems in a timely manner the feasibility of improving the program to ensure the smooth water conservancy and hydropower project completed and put into normal application, play a water conservancy and hydropower project should be effectiveness of the national economy.(5) Study on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of risk for the system of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering.In this paper, the failure probability of the system expressed in the form of fuzzy numbers by the practical problems failure of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Systems. The possibility of the incident insteateds of the occurrence probability. It is calculated by means of fuzzy events for the top level of the average and deviation to get the top event probability distribution. IT is studied systematically the water resources and hydropower engineering system failure probability by Fuzzy event tree method.In this article, the water resources and hydropower engineering systems is derived the weight series, it is comprehensived evaluation conclusions by the water system risk assessment system.At the same time the fuzzy analysis method is to be used for analyzing the various risk factors.Water Resources and Hydropower projects also utilize the system’s failure probability of a certain range of the distribution of L-R fuzzy function, it is combined with the event tree method, the failure probability analysis is important for water resources and hydropower engineering systems, this System is more closer to reality in the risk assessment.更多还原